CIK62 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 29 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Picked up 0.88" of rain so far today. Current temp 60 Thanks. I thought my thermometer was having a mid-life crisis as it approaches 60* now. Fog and light rain here. Could be mimicking the conditions we will have at the Ball Dropping! Hey, if it is not raining I may hit the boardwalk here in CI which has become another NYE venue these last 5 years. LED lights on the Parachute Jump is the pseudo ball drop. Some rides actually open for the evening, weather and enough people expected, permitting. Some fireworks too. Last year only a ball drop in the near single digit atmosphere. I was in Times Square '74 into "75 with sleet, freezing drizzle going right through me for three hours in 33* air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1.16" so far today...68.36" for the year. More rain to come Monday to finish off a very wet year...Wont beat my record from 2011 but did not have the single super month like the 21.55" total in Aug of that year, Also record number of days with measurable precip now at 162 compared to only 129 in 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 2 hours ago, Snowshack said: It’s bad but only have to go back three years for worse imo. I disagree. December 2015 was at least historically warm enough to be somewhat enjoyable. This December has just been a chilly, dreary mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 20 minutes ago, doncat said: 1.16" so far today...68.36" for the year. More rain to come Monday to finish off a very wet year...Wont beat my record from 2011 but did not have the single super month like the 21.55" total in Aug of that year, Also record number of days with measurable precip now at 162 compared to only 129 in 2011. Yeah, NYC has a record 157 days now with measurable precipitation in 2018. This beat the previous record of 152 days set in 1996. But I am sure most in here would have been happier beating the 1995-1996 snowfall record instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, NYC has a record 157 days now with measurable precipitation in 2018. This beat the previous #1 of 152 days set in 1996. But I am sure most in here would been happier beating the 1995-1996 snowfall record instead. With 40 years of record these are the monthly records I set this year...Feb highest temp 77 degrees ( Just missed warmest mean ) Also wettest at 6.66" , March highest snowfall 24.9", April coldest at 47.7 degrees, Nov coldest temp 13 degrees and wettest at 8.57"....Quite a few. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 48 minutes ago, doncat said: With 40 years of record these are the monthly records I set this year...Feb highest temp 77 degrees ( Just missed warmest mean ) Also wettest at 6.66" , March highest snowfall 24.9", April coldest at 47.7 degrees, Nov coldest temp 13 degrees and wettest at 8.57"....Quite a few. We can also add a 950 mb blizzard near the BM to the list. Still my favorite Euro 7 day control run of all-time. Let’s not forget the historic number of 75 degree dew point days at JFK. Along with the Long Island out of season October tornadoes and November snowstorm. This is certainly the most extreme weather and climate decade any of us have experienced. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 A little more help guys if you can and in the best layman terms if possible = how does the MJO phasing in the Western Pacific effect us here on the East Coast ? I get that it went from p7 to p6 but how does the west coast effect us on the East ? Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 12 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: A little more help guys if you can and in the best layman terms if possible = how does the MJO phasing in the Western Pacific effect us here on the East Coast ? I get that it went from p7 to p6 but how does the west coast effect us on the East ? Thanks in advance MJO has been stuck in phase 5 and now is going to 6. The favorable phases ( 7-8-1) promotes a ridge in the west which helps promote colder and stormier weather in the east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 The models may be ready to spit out a few exciting runs regarding 1/3. I’m leaning towards us getting missed to the south if it ejects out early enough and is a snow event but if you’ve noticed this season the trend has been for big changes around day 5-6 with models locking onto tracks around Day 4 with not much change thereafter. We saw that occur with these next two systems and may be seeing it now with 1/3. I think if this is going to happen we will see some sort of big move towards it within the next 48 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: MJO has been stuck in phase 5 and now is going to 6. The favorable phases ( 7-8-1) promotes a ridge in the west which helps promote colder and stormier weather in the east. thanks--I appreciate the explanation as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 18 minutes ago, Snow88 said: MJO has been stuck in phase 5 and now is going to 6. The favorable phases ( 7-8-1) promotes a ridge in the west which helps promote colder and stormier weather in the east. Which comes first? Does the +SOI cause the MJO to get "stuck" or does the MJO being stuck cause the SOI? Further, what's causing this horrible +AO and +NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 49 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The models may be ready to spit out a few exciting runs regarding 1/3. I’m leaning towards us getting missed to the south if it ejects out early enough and is a snow event but if you’ve noticed this season the trend has been for big changes around day 5-6 with models locking onto tracks around Day 4 with not much change thereafter. We saw that occur with these next two systems and may be seeing it now with 1/3. I think if this is going to happen we will see some sort of big move towards it within the next 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 2 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said: I disagree. December 2015 was at least historically warm enough to be somewhat enjoyable. This December has just been a chilly, dreary mess. 2015 wasnt enjoyable...it was scary. There was something genuinely unsettling about it. This December actually had a great run of below normal temperatures for the first two weeks. It was preceded by a below normal November with snow. It is now turned into a run-of-the-mill El Nino December and possibly a run-of-the-mill El Niño winter...Which aren’t historically great for New York City. I see 97-98 a lot over the last few days. It was either 96-97 or that one that was filled with cutters. Mr G used to say “White to wet.” It happened all winter long. That winter has been on my mind. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: 2015 wasnt enjoyable...it was scary. There was something genuinely unsettling about it. Did you find February 2015 equally unsettling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 30 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: 2015 wasnt enjoyable...it was scary. There was something genuinely unsettling about it. This December actually had a great run of below normal temperatures for the first two weeks. It was preceded by a below normal November with snow. It is now turned into a run-of-the-mill El Nino December and possibly a run-of-the-mill El Niño winter...Which aren’t historically great for New York City. I see 97-98 a lot over the last few days. It was either 96-97 or that one that was filled with cutters. Mr G used to say “White to wet.” It happened all winter long. That winter has been on my mind. Time will tell. Super Ninos, of which 97/98 was the only true rat. 82/83 had a blizzard and so did 16/17. Good thing this is not a super nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Super Ninos, of which 97/98 was the only true rat. 82/83 had a blizzard and so did 16/17. Good thing this is not a super nino. 97-98 had a ton of bad luck. The overall pattern that winter may have been better than the recent super Niño Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 36 minutes ago, Cfa said: Did you find February 2015 equally unsettling? No, I found last February’s 75 degrees at 8pm equally as Unsettling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 37 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: 2015 wasnt enjoyable...it was scary. There was something genuinely unsettling about it. This December actually had a great run of below normal temperatures for the first two weeks. It was preceded by a below normal November with snow. It is now turned into a run-of-the-mill El Nino December and possibly a run-of-the-mill El Niño winter...Which aren’t historically great for New York City. I see 97-98 a lot over the last few days. It was either 96-97 or that one that was filled with cutters. Mr G used to say “White to wet.” It happened all winter long. That winter has been on my mind. Time will tell. 97-98 was a lot of coastals with no cold air to speak of. Wind driven rainstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 45 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: The trough is positive which would mean a miss to the south. I would like to see the ridge get better in future runs for this wave to come northward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 10 hours ago, snowman19 said: If that actually happens, we’re in big trouble, for January at least You've had a whole bunch of good posts. It's like a new and improved you. But here's some food for thought re: the post i quoted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: 97-98 had a ton of bad luck. The overall pattern that winter may have been better than the recent super Niño Not sure if it was bad luck. Tons of coastals with no cold air, super nino style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: Not sure if it was bad luck. Tons of coastals with no cold air, super nino style. The AO I believe averaged negative that winter there was something that mucked everything up outside the Niño but I forget what it was. We had the AO in 09-10 which was a very strong Niño as well relatively speaking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The AO I believe averaged negative that winter there was something that mucked everything up outside the Niño but I forget what it was. We had the AO in 09-10 which was a very strong Niño as well relatively speaking. (Super) East based vs modoki Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: Not sure if it was bad luck. Tons of coastals with no cold air, super nino style. Yeah if it was like 5 degrees colder 97-98 would have been epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Ended up with 2.26". Many puddles! Anyways, at least all three main models have a signal for snow on the 4th. But, still far out its something to track though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Picked up 1.08" of rain for the day. Storm total 1.08" Current temp 58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 15 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Yeah if it was like 5 degrees colder 97-98 would have been epic Thank you Rjay. Anyway, in response to dmillz post, the problem with 97-98 was the insanely positive EPO, which was caused as a result of the super El Niño we had in place back then. The NAM (AO/NAO) actually was good that winter, it was just that the Pacific ++EPO signal was so strong that it completely overwhelmed everything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 27 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The AO I believe averaged negative that winter there was something that mucked everything up outside the Niño but I forget what it was. We had the AO in 09-10 which was a very strong Niño as well relatively speaking. The super Niño forced a ++EPO pattern. It completely overwhelmed the arctic and Atlantic signals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 NWS CPC "The Madden-Julian Oscillation crossing into the Pacific in the next few days is forecast to help flip the Arctic Oscillation to its negative phase, leading to increased chances of cold air outbreaks over the eastern US in today's Weeks 3&4 outlook." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: NWS CPC "The Madden-Julian Oscillation crossing into the Pacific in the next few days is forecast to help flip the Arctic Oscillation to its negative phase, leading to increased chances of cold air outbreaks over the eastern US in today's Weeks 3&4 outlook." There you have it. So stop worrying. Okay? I'm saying this to all of the people that are worried. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now