weatherpruf Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 hour ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Patience , this warm up was seen by the EPS which did a great job drilling the trough in the west and correctly taking the MJO in a warm p5. Some of us had the warm up only lasting 10 days when in fact it`s going to end up being a warm 20 day period. So those of us who rushed it were way too fast. A 10 day hold in p5 does not make the entire winter and the MJO is on the move with the current SSW will produce this winter. This is the 2nd year in a row in which a SSW event happened as the MJO was stuck in a warm phase. Last year that SSW event began around Feb 20 with the MJO in p7 ( In FEB that`s warm ) . So the effects of blocking really took hold between March 10 - April 20 which lead to our NEG departures. You saw a 6 to 8 week period of BN temps as a result. This year while stuck in p5 ( Dec 5 is warm ) , the SSW event began around Dec 20 so it`s lead time could place the core of the cold between Jan 10 to Feb 20 which is very much in line with Tom and our thinking. Jan 10 - Feb 20 represent the core of the negative departures as far as dailies go so having the coldest anomalies during that time could be a perfect storm so to speak. Patience , we go through this every year. Nothing has changed. We do go through this every year, except in years when it snows in Dec. We all know that an early Oct. or Nov snow doesn't mean much ( and they are statistically rare ) but snow less Decembers get everyone nervous. But we had two recent years IIRC, 2015 ad 2016, that delivered after Dec, though 2016 was a one hit wonder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Majority of people had this month being crappy in terms of snow and cold for our area in their winter forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Majority of people had this month being crappy in terms of snow and cold for our area in their winter forecasts. Really, it has only been actual calendar winter for a few days....way too early to call it quits. If Jan looks the same I'd say things are going to go south, but if IIRC didn't the Feb 2006 blizzard follow a crap pattern? So you never really know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: A winter storm would likely happen as the blocking starts to weaken. Archambault events kick arse! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 12z Gfs decides to torch the whole CONUS near mid Jan for good measure. Yeah I know it's fantasy and Earthlight did say we could see a warm Jan 5-10 period. However I'm seeing a lot of forecasters try to make sense of what's happening because I think they're having a tough time grasping it. On a personal note, I have a bad feeling this winter will go down the tubes. Maybe raindancewx was right about 94/95 & 06/07 being the prime analog years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 I believe Jan 10 - Feb 20 is the core this year. Patience , you need to shake off an amplified p5 and that may take until Jan 10. ( that`s my start date here ) . Good luck to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 41 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: I believe Jan 10 - Feb 20 is the core this year. Patience , you need to shake off an amplified p5 and that may take until Jan 10. ( that`s my start date here ) . Good luck to all. Exactly my thinking, though I would push it towards the 20th for the big show. Cold will be building in Canada and it will be dislodged. I think there will be nervous times ahead but it will all pay off in the end. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 One thing that hasnt been difficult to forecast is the rain., 0.85" here so far, now over 68" for year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 4 hours ago, 495weatherguy said: This—I don’t think I read any LR forecast that described a less than snowy winter There was at least one: https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/winter-outlook-favors-warmer-temperatures-for-much-of-us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: 12z Gfs decides to torch the whole CONUS near mid Jan for good measure. Yeah I know it's fantasy and Earthlight did say we could see a warm Jan 5-10 period. However I'm seeing a lot of forecasters try to make sense of what's happening because I think they're having a tough time grasping it. On a personal note, I have a bad feeling this winter will go down the tubes. Maybe raindancewx was right about 94/95 & 06/07 being the prime analog years. Ensembles are way different and on cue with earthlight thoughts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Another rainstorm for the 4th on the Euro SMFH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 57 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: There was at least one: https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/winter-outlook-favors-warmer-temperatures-for-much-of-us I stand corrected. And I did read that one. My mistake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1.27" here now. Currently 59 and down pouring. Also very windy. Stay dry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 36 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Another rainstorm for the 4th on the Euro SMFH As expected and modeled the past week or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Up to 60F with light rain, one of the worst Decembers ever. The rains have been relentless. Even SNE has little to show for it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Majority of people had this month being crappy in terms of snow and cold for our area in their winter forecasts. Pure El Niño climatology along with the general warmer and less snowy December trend. 8 out of 10 years since 1990 with above normal temparatures and below normal snowfall. El Niño Decembers in NYC since 1990 2018....+1.4....T so far 2015...+13.3....T 2014....+3.0...1.0 2009...-1.6....12.4 2006...+6.1....0.0 2004...+0.9....3.0 2002....-1.5....11.0 1997....+0.7....T 1994.....+4.7....T 1991.....+2.1....0.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 47 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Another rainstorm for the 4th on the Euro SMFH cutter city until the EPO and/or AO/NAO changes-also no cold air anywhere so not sure it would matter all that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Up to 60F with light rain, one of the worst Decembers ever. The rains have been relentless. Even SNE has little to show for it. It’s bad but only have to go back three years for worse imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Pure El Niño climatology along with the general warmer and less snowy December trend. 8 out of 10 years above normal temparatures and below normal snowfall.6.1 El Niño Decembers in NYC since 1990 2018 2015....13.3....T 2014....+3.0...1.0 2009...-1.6....12.4 2006...+6.1....0.0 2004...+0.9....3.0 2002....-1.5....11.0 1997....+0.7....T 1994.....+4.7....T 1991.....+2.1....0.7 Question...how frequent are El ninos? Seems like we just had one not too long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Just now, Snowshack said: It’s bad but only have to go back three years for worse imo. 97-98 was pretty much like this all winter. Had an inch or so in March I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 EPS ejects the energy out instead of burrying it like the op for the 4th. Nice signal this far out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: cutter city until the EPO and/or AO/NAO changes-also no cold air anywhere so not sure it would matter all that much If the cutoff didn't happen, we would have seen a wave along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: 97-98 was pretty much like this all winter. Had an inch or so in March I think. December was much colder. Jan and Feb were both like +7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 18 minutes ago, Snowshack said: It’s bad but only have to go back three years for worse imo. Yeah but at least 2015 was way warmer and had less rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 We’re having November in December, payback for having December in November. Get over it. Its not like it’s February 28th and Winter is over. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 28 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Question...how frequent are El ninos? Seems like we just had one not too long ago. We seem to get 3-4 winters each decade with an El Niño. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: We seem to get 3-4 winters each decade with an El Niño. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php Lately we’ve been struggling to get them though. Obviously 15-16 happened but the previous two winters the ENSO models were locked onto an El Niño in spring and summer and it didn’t really come close to happening either time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 34 minutes ago, Snow88 said: EPS ejects the energy out instead of burrying it like the op for the 4th. Nice signal this far out Even then I think we would get missed to the south. Hell, even DCA might get missed by that 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Snowshack said: It’s bad but only have to go back three years for worse imo. The rain has really added to the misery. The missed opportunity that slammed the SE also hurt. In 2015 we knew December would be atrocious. I'll take a massive torch with less rain than one with some opportunities that was excessively wet, not white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Picked up 0.88" of rain so far today. Current temp 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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