snowman19 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 15 minutes ago, TwcMan said: We need that EURO back.. Honestly, over the last couple of winters, the Euro has lost a lot of its luster. Flip flops and busts a lot more than I can ever remember. The Para GFS has definitely not been the best either, the guys in the NE forum just pointed this out as well 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 5 minutes ago, Tatamy said: How about Groundhog Day in 1976? Do you remember that. That was on a school day. Woke up to blinding heavy snow, wind gusts estimated to 40 to 60 mph (estimated as my wind instruments were frozen solid) continuous thunder and lightning, and my barometer dropping past 28.60”. No one ever talks about that one and it was not forecasted either. Low pressure unexpectedly bombed on an arctic front. I only picked up 2” with that storm. But the winds were more memorable. That storm produced the lowest blow out tides on record around the area. It must have looked like the Bay of Fundy at low tide with all the boast resting on the sand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VicV Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 2 hours ago, uncle W said: that evening when the snow was falling I was watching Alan Kasper and he was concerned the snow rain line was moving south so he upped his totals to 8" when everyone else was 3" over to rain...it ended up 14" ending as a mix...my best busts are March 3rd 1960 and February 9th 1969... I would also add the Dec 11-12 1960 storm as a positive bust as the forecast was 3 to 5 inches and the total for CPK was 15.2 and I had about 20 inches in Brooklyn . Vic V 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Another 1"+ rain event seems likely late Thursday into Friday. Could see renewed river flooding issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 2 hours ago, Zelocita Weather said: I hear the EURO is intriguing....from what New England and M/A looks like a 2-4” type deal 12Z Euro shows nada for 12/30 or 1/1, but is showing a general 4-8" snowfall on 1/3, about 8 days away. Would be nice to see anything close to that verify, although no other models support that right now (at least not the 2 GFS's or the CMC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Oh boy. The 15th and onward. Something to be excited about. I'll have analysis on that later. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: good luck having that 1/3 4 -8 showing up again on the 0Z EURO - most models have been very inconsistent past day 3 Much is going on that is leading to enhanced uncertainty: 1. An SSW is in its early stages of developing 2. An exceptionally high-amplitude MJO is progressing through Phase 5. It could move into Phase 6 in coming days. 3. The SOI has just gone negative A lack of run-to-run continuity and disagreement among the guidance can be especially elevated ahead of significant to major pattern changes. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 4 hours ago, sferic said: How about Thanksgiving's snowstorm from 1989? It wasn't followed by anything....that was all she wrote for the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 FYI, numerous NOAA webpages, including re-analysis pages, are temporarily offline due to the ongoing partial federal government shutdown. The following webpage comes up when one tries to access a number (but not all) of those pages: https://governmentshutdown.noaa.gov/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 9 minutes ago, RU848789 said: 12Z Euro shows nada for 12/30 or 1/1, but is showing a general 4-8" snowfall on 1/3, about 8 days away. Would be nice to see anything close to that verify, although no other models support that right now (at least not the 2 GFS's or the CMC). It could be that we're only looking at one event during the first week of January. The Euro might simply be keying on the 1/3 low while the GFS is trying to hone in on New Years Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: It could be that we're only looking at one event during the first week of January. The Euro might simply be keying on the 1/3 low while the GFS is trying to hone in on New Years Eve. New Year’s Eve looks remote to me at this time. There isn’t a whole lot of room there to get that thing more amped without also poisoning the air mass in place. It’s likely that if that comes far enough up its rain anyway 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: FYI, numerous NOAA webpages, including re-analysis pages, are temporarily offline due to the ongoing partial federal government shutdown. The following webpage comes up when one tries to access a number (but not all) of those pages: https://governmentshutdown.noaa.gov/ Could explain the MJO going nuts....:) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 This almost looks like the December 15 into January 16 MJO transition to colder delayed by a week. Notice the similar strength MJO 5 amplitude both times. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 53 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: New Year’s Eve looks remote to me at this time. There isn’t a whole lot of room there to get that thing more amped without also poisoning the air mass in place. It’s likely that if that comes far enough up its rain anyway ^This. It’s very remote. The 12/30-1/3 time frame is still really bad for snow here. People need to be patient 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 A serious question-if we are going to enter an active, wintry period, say Jan 15-March 1, what are the odds of 40 plus inches of snow during that time frame? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: A serious question-if we are going to enter an active, wintry period, say Jan 15-March 1, what are the odds of 40 plus inches of snow during that time frame? I'd say around 35%. It's more likely that we could get 30" of snowfall during that time period. Although I wouldn't be too sure about that either. At least not yet. We need to see if the high amplitude MJO Phase 7 verifies first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 49 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: I'd say around 35%. It's more likely that we could get 30" of snowfall during that time period. Although I wouldn't be too sure about that either. At least not yet. We need to see if the high amplitude MJO Phase 7 verifies first. What would the odds be of a total bust? I’m just asking, I’ve seen it countless times before where we were going to get a huge storm, And we wind up with nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 Just now, 495weatherguy said: What would the odds be of a total bust? I’m just asking, I’ve seen it countless times before where we were going to get a huge storm, And we wind up with nothing. This shows why the stormier than average weather will happen past the 15th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 45 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: What would the odds be of a total bust? I’m just asking, I’ve seen it countless times before where we were going to get a huge storm, And we wind up with nothing. Probably 25% with increasing chances every week that goes by with anything on the table. The fact that we had zero snowfall in December is a definite red flag, I don't care how good November was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 On 12/25, the MJO remained in Phase 5. Its amplitude was 3.092, which was the 2nd highest amplitude on record for 12/25. The record is 3.226, which was set in 1996. At that time, the MJO was in Phase 6. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 2 hours ago, 495weatherguy said: A serious question-if we are going to enter an active, wintry period, say Jan 15-March 1, what are the odds of 40 plus inches of snow during that time frame? Over 40 inches of snow in the metro between 1/15-3/1? You’re talking historic. Can a few real big storms and a couple of small events in between get you there? Sure. Would I predict such a pattern? Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Over 40 inches of snow in the metro between 1/15-3/1? You’re talking historic. Can a few real big storms and a couple small events in between get you there? Sure. Would I predict such a pattern? Nope NYC has only seen 40" or more one time in the January 15-March 1 timeframe. During January 15, 2014-March 1, 2014 total snowfall was 42.3". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: NYC has only seen 40" or more one time in the January 15-March 1 timeframe. During January 15, 2014-March 1, 2014 total snowfall was 42.3". I got around 40 inches in February 2010 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 Thank you for the responses. I appreciate it. 40 inches in 6 weeks is a lot, I didn’t realize historic. IMHO, if we reach 30 inches this winter, that would be a feat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: NYC has only seen 40" or more one time in the January 15-March 1 timeframe. During January 15, 2014-March 1, 2014 total snowfall was 42.3". Thank you Don. I didn’t look up the actual data but I knew such a scenario was not only unlikely but an extremely rare feat. Even if extended 3 more weeks to 3/21, an extreme rarity still I’m sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 35 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Thank you Don. I didn’t look up the actual data but I knew such a scenario was not only unlikely but an extremely rare feat. Even if extended 3 more weeks to 3/21, an extreme rarity still I’m sure Last winter Suffolk County had 3 legit 12"+ blizzards, and many spots were over 70" of snow. I am not sure how that stacks up in history, but the point is anything can happen. 40" in 6 weeks, i dont see why not. Islip recorded 5" in one hour, and 9"of snow in 2 hours last year. With those numbers, anything is possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, psv88 said: Last winter Suffolk County had 3 legit 12"+ blizzards, and many spots were over 70" of snow. I am not sure how that stacks up in history, but the point is anything can happen. 40" in 6 weeks, i dont see why not. Islip recorded 5" in one hour, and 9"of snow in 2 hours last year. With those numbers, anything is possible. Agreed. 12-24"+ storms seem commonplace now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 2 hours ago, 495weatherguy said: Thank you for the responses. I appreciate it. 40 inches in 6 weeks is a lot, I didn’t realize historic. IMHO, if we reach 30 inches this winter, that would be a feat We average about 25” in JFM, so add what fell in November to that and I think it’s still reasonable to think we get to 30”. And given the extremes of the 2000’s, really anything is still on the table. We could register 30” in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 More rain on NYE on the Cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Last winter Suffolk County had 3 legit 12"+ blizzards, and many spots were over 70" of snow. I am not sure how that stacks up in history, but the point is anything can happen. 40" in 6 weeks, i dont see why not. Islip recorded 5" in one hour, and 9"of snow in 2 hours last year. With those numbers, anything is possible. 8 minutes ago, Snowshack said: We average about 25” in JFM, so add what fell in November to that and I think it’s still reasonable to think we get to 30”. And given the extremes of the 2000’s, really anything is still on the table. We could register 30” in March. Excellent points. Guess we will find out soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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