December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

New years Eve potential is still on the models. Should be fun tracking a storm if it continues to show up on the models.

 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

 

Yep

We just need it to dig more. Beautiful PNA ridge. This run is way different than previous runs.

Cmc has a coastal but misses to the south and east. 

 

[NorthShoreWx]

26 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

You got into the mid teens and we’re below 25 for 24 hours plus. That’s as text book a growing season ending event that you will ever see. Your not in a different climate zone then Central Park. Some herbs can be incredibly hardy, I had rose Mary that lasted for 3 full years. All regular perrenials ended for the season in that event. Anything that did not is not a perennial.

I’m not trying to start a fight by the way at all, I just happen to know allot about horticulture as that’s what I do for a living. 

Waiting for some mangled flakes here on the island  

Rosemary is good down to about +10F.  I used to grow it as an annual.  Then I put some in a big pot which I drag inside when it gets too cold.  I've had that one for many years now.

[ForestHillWx]

Very fine, light snow. Grass/trees crusted in white. Mood flakes; just in time for Christmas! 

Roads/slate patio are clear. Current obs: 32/30.

Elevation: 735'

 

[Brasiluvsnow]

Everything white here,,,,,Merry Xmas

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 39degs., or 4degs. AN 

Month to date is  +1.0[39.6].      December should end at  +1.8[39.5].

EURO is 1" of Snow immediately, then nothing for the next 10 days.   GEFS is 50/50 on at least 5" of Snow by the Jan. 10.

Just wet here and 40degs., ---5am

[tim]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 39degs., or 4degs. AN 

Month to date is  +1.0[39.6].      December should end at  +1.8[39.5].

EURO is 1" of Snow immediately, then nothing for the next 10 days.   GEFS is 50/50 on at least 5" of Snow by the Jan. 10.

Just wet here and 40degs., ---5am

...got a coating of snow out here.

grass/cars/roofs covered..roads not.

32*

[rgwp96]

1.2 of snow , still lightly snowing 

[bluewave]

Spots around NYC are on track for a top 5 warmest December monthly minimum temperature.

NYC

#1....34...2015

#2...28....2012

#3..26.....1974

#4..25.....1984

#5..24.....2018....2014....1908

EWR

#1...33...2015

#2...25...2012....1974

#3...23...2018...2014....2011

 

[gravitylover]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Spots around NYC are on track for a top 5 warmest December monthly minimum temperature.

NYC

#1....34...2015

#2...28....2012

#3..26.....1974

#4..25.....1984

#5..24.....2018....2014....1908

EWR

#1...33...2015

#2...25...2012....1974

#3...23...2018...2014....2011

 

Thankfully that's not the case outside the cities. We've seen mid teens a few times this month. While it's not especially wintry it has snowed (and stuck) a few times now and it doesn't feel like an extended autumn like some years do.

[Cfa]

7 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Rosemary is good down to about +10F.  I used to grow it as an annual.  Then I put some in a big pot which I drag inside when it gets too cold.  I've had that one for many years now.

Some types are even hardier than that, there was a small hedge of rosemary at the Smith Haven Mall for years, but it died last winter during that arctic outbreak in late Dec/early Jan.

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Thankfully that's not the case outside the cities. We've seen mid teens a few times this month. While it's not especially wintry it has snowed (and stuck) a few times now and it doesn't feel like an extended autumn like some years do.

It depends on which regions outside the cities you are talking about. Even Montgomery up in Orange County is a top 5 warmest minimum. Although the record goes back to 1999, the top years are similar to around NYC. Albany airport about 7 mi NW of the downtown is similar.

#1...22...2015

#2...17....2012

#3...15....2011

#4...14.....2018...2006

#5....12.....2014

Albany

#1....22...2015

#2...18...2012

#3....15...2001

#4....14...1928

#5....13...2018...2011...1911

 

 

[NEG NAO]

0Z Euro

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/significant-weather/20190101-1200z.html

[Brian5671]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It depends on which regions outside the cities you are talking about. Even Montgomery up in Orange County is a top 5 warmest minimum. Although the record goes back to 1999, the top years are similar to around NYC. Albany airport about 7 mi NW of the downtown is similar.

#1...22...2015

#2...17....2012

#3...15....2011

#4...14.....2018...2006

#5....12.....2014

Albany

#1....22...2015

#2...18...2012

#3....15...2001

#4....14...1928

#5....13...2018...2011...1911

 

 

alot of cloudy days this month/fall have helped keep nighttime lows on the high side...

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

alot of cloudy days this month/fall have helped keep nighttime lows on the high side...

This will be the first decade for NYC with 5 Decembers not falling below 20 degrees. The first for Albany is 5 Decembers  staying above 10 degrees.

[gravitylover]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It depends on which regions outside the cities you are talking about. Even Montgomery up in Orange County is a top 5 warmest minimum. Although the record goes back to 1999, the top years are similar to around NYC. Albany airport about 7 mi NW of the downtown is similar.

#1...22...2015

#2...17....2012

#3...15....2011

#4...14.....2018...2006

#5....12.....2014

Albany

#1....22...2015

#2...18...2012

#3....15...2001

#4....14...1928

#5....13...2018...2011...1911

 

 

I think Brian hit on something there. It is a continuation of the high minimums that we've been experiencing since late last winter. It sure doesn't seem like it for the last 20 days or so though with temps in the teens and twenties most nights and sort of warm days but nothing exceptional. I hate when numbers prove anecdotal obs wrong 

[NEG NAO]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This will be the first decade for NYC with 5 Decembers not falling below 20 degrees. The first for Albany is 5 Decembers  staying above 10 degrees.

November was December and December was November this year - what will January be is the next question to solve ………...

[weatherpruf]

9 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

You got into the mid teens and we’re below 25 for 24 hours plus. That’s as text book a growing season ending event that you will ever see. Your not in a different climate zone then Central Park. Some herbs can be incredibly hardy, I had rose Mary that lasted for 3 full years. All regular perrenials ended for the season in that event. Anything that did not is not a perennial.

I’m not trying to start a fight by the way at all, I just happen to know allot about horticulture as that’s what I do for a living. 

Waiting for some mangled flakes here on the island  

No problem. Thing is I didn't even plant this parsely, It seeded itself. it's all over the place.

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

November was December and December was November this year - what will January be is the next question to solve ………...

While we had warm Decembers following cold Novembers  before, 4 in 7 years may be a new record.

NYC

Year.....Nov......Dec

2018.....-3.3......+1.0....so far

2014.....-2.4.....+3.0

2013....-2.4......+1.3

2012....-3.8.......+4.0

[weatherpruf]

9 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

You got into the mid teens and we’re below 25 for 24 hours plus. That’s as text book a growing season ending event that you will ever see. Your not in a different climate zone then Central Park. Some herbs can be incredibly hardy, I had rose Mary that lasted for 3 full years. All regular perrenials ended for the season in that event. Anything that did not is not a perennial.

I’m not trying to start a fight by the way at all, I just happen to know allot about horticulture as that’s what I do for a living. 

Waiting for some mangled flakes here on the island  

So I went outside to take a look. The parsley seems fine and is not damaged at all. The sage is damaged but alive, as is the rosemary and the oregano looks good too. All but the parsely are in a planter ( and old charcoal grill that was converted ) and are elevated off the ground, so maybe that's a factor. But I also saw sprouting tomato seedlings and numerous new growth in weeds. That would be after the Nov cold snap. Maybe it's just my memory, but it seemed when I was a kid (70's ) the ground froze and stayed pretty much too cold for any December growth. I'm not well versed in herbs, so my ID's could be off. I'm more familiar with growing nightshade crops. I do know that crops in the cole family can take this kind of cold and shrug it right off; many people have decorative kale around all winter. I personally think it looks ugly, but that's me. Didn't see any flakes here today. Next time.

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

So I went outside to take a look. The parsley seems fine and is not damaged at all. The sage is damaged but alive, as is the rosemary and the oregano looks good too. All but the parsely are in a planter ( and old charcoal grill that was converted ) and are elevated off the ground, so maybe that's a factor. But I also saw sprouting tomato seedlings and numerous new growth in weeds. That would be after the Nov cold snap. Maybe it's just my memory, but it seemed when I was a kid (70's ) the ground froze and stayed pretty much too cold for any December growth. I'm not well versed in herbs, so my ID's could be off. I'm more familiar with growing nightshade crops. I do know that crops in the cole family can take this kind of cold and shrug it right off; many people have decorative kale around all winter. I personally think it looks ugly, but that's me. Didn't see any flakes here today. Next time.

Last week when we got to 60 and it was raining I saw mosquitoes and flies.  Not many but a few were there, maybe all that standing water is why they are still alive? I have a small pond in my backyard and my ground isn't frozen here yet, maybe that needs to happen for us to kill off all this stuff.

 

[the_other_guy]

We had a couple of weeks of subfreezing temps at night and several days below freezing.

I dont know how anyone is seeing flies, bugs or plants alive.

 

As for the Dec/Nov swap, the problem is the climatology doesnt allow for a winter month-autumn month swap.

You are trading an warm early winter month for a cool late autumn month. We dont get much to show for it.

Not lost in all this warming (as others have pointed out) Dec, Feb, Sept and October seem to be flash points for warming.

Nov, Mar and Jun seem the least affected and prone to BN departures.

Why is that? That is the big question

[purduewx80]

00Z EPS is noticeably warmer in the East through the first few days of the New Year than its previous run. The SE/Carib ridge flexes continually, largely making any cold intrusions into the Northeast muted and quick-hitting. Surface high placement will be critical, but with an active pattern for the foreseeable future, it's possible for some front-end thumps as WAA rushes in with each system.  I think overall the interior around here will be favored for any wintry precip, but it can't be ruled out.  Most importantly, this pattern should also rebuild snow cover in northern New England and Eastern Canada in the coming 2 weeks. 

Massively higher heights shift into the Gulf of Alaska at the same time, then build from the Arctic to Baja by the end of the run.  That allows frigid air spilling into the West initially to press east with time.  Obviously, it may and likely will change down the road, but it absolutely supports a lot of the long-term thinking for a transition to much colder conditions by the 2nd week of the New Year.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

We had a couple of weeks of subfreezing temps at night and several days below freezing.

I dont know how anyone is seeing flies, bugs or plants alive.

 

As for the Dec/Nov swap, the problem is the climatology doesnt allow for a winter month-autumn month swap.

You are trading an warm early winter month for a cool late autumn month. We dont get much to show for it.

Not lost in all this warming (as others have pointed out) Dec, Feb, Sept and October seem to be flash points for warming.

Nov, Mar and Jun seem the least affected and prone to BN departures.

Why is that? That is the big question

60-90 day warmth/cold swaps-if you go back about 2 years, there seems to be a pattern of medium term warmth alternating with medium term cold....not sure why, but it's definitely there.   The last one ran roughly 10/10/18 to 12/10/18....(Cold)

[MJO812]

Nice little snow event on the 30th on the GFS

Likely going to change since this is 6 days away

The New Years Day storm on this run is a coastal but its very weak. Big changes since the lakes cutter last run.

The latest Tellies show the NAO,AO and PNA all favorable by the end of the month. That doesn't mean we will get something but a higher chance.

[MJO812]

41 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nice little snow event on the 30th on the GFS

Likely going to change since this is 6 days away

The New Years Day storm on this run is a coastal but its very weak. Big changes since the lakes cutter last run.

The latest Tellies show the NAO,AO and PNA all favorable by the end of the month. That doesn't mean we will get something but a higher chance.

Nice signal on the GEFS for the 30th.

Lets hope it stays like that and gets better

[TriPol]

FV3 GFS has a lot of rain for us on the 28th. This could be one of our wettest (not whitest) winters on record.

[Stormlover74]

54 minutes ago, TriPol said:

FV3 GFS has a lot of rain for us on the 28th. This could be one of our wettest (not whitest) winters on record.

97-98 

[bluewave]

Stronger MJO activity is turning out to be a significant factor during this decade. 2018, 2015, and 2011 will go into the record books for the longest duration and strongest amplitude in MJO 4-5 for the month of December. Longer range models were picking up on the risk near the end of November. But it’s still something that is outside the range  of seasonal forecasts from earlier in the fall.

 

 

 

[NEG NAO]

3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Nice signal on the GEFS for the 30th.

Lets hope it stays like that and gets better

until other models and especially the EURO show anything it is not a threat at the moment in the immediate NYC metro the 30th or 31st -1st

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/significant-weather/20181231-0000z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/significant-weather/20190101-0600z.html