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December 2018 General Discussion & Observations


Zelocita Weather
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34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are getting the classic mild December El Niño ridge over North America. But the continuing +SOI is associated with an extension of  the La Niña ridge north of Hawaii. So the jet configuration is different across the North Pacific than is typically the case in an El Niño December. Stronger jet max further to the north.

 

The SOI has leveled out and it's slowly falling. So the SOI probably just encountered its' secondary max.

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15 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Two reasons. December averages anywhere from 5-10 inches for the month through most of our region so getting shut out is annoying. The second and biggest reason is every snow weenie wants snow before or on Christmas. They'd be freaks if they didn't.

December numbers are skewed high thanks to a few anomalous years, especially 2010. I believe we also had 8” or so in 2012 on Christmas Day.

Really December is no more a Winter month than September is an Autumn month.

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6 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Those are rare exceptions though.  In our area, any significant snow in December should not be expected.

There should be some lighter events though. Snowless Decembers correlate with poor snow amounts for the rest of the winter. When it does nothing in Dec, I take a dim view of the rest of the winter. We've had a few exceptions in recent years, so I don't write it off, but it generally isn't a good sign if you like snow.

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

December numbers are skewed high thanks to a few anomalous years, especially 2010. I believe we also had 8” or so in 2012 on Christmas Day.

Really December is no more a Winter month than September is an Autumn month.

Wasn't 2012. Maybe up your way, but we didn't see much snow here until the Feb storm, discounting the 3-4 we had in early Nov that year. 

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3 hours ago, Cfa said:

6 inches can fall on December 1st and be gone by December 2nd, that doesn’t count as a white Christmas, although I realize that expecting snow to fall on particular calendar days is ridiculous, it doesn’t negate the fact that December generally isn’t as friendly to snow lovers as January, February, and even March.

My comment had more to do with some members getting antsy about the absence of snow + the post card version of NYC around the holidays that suggest it’s *supposed* to be snowy, when in reality 50+ degrees is significantly more likely than snow on 12/24 & 12/25. The 2010’s have been the gift that keeps on giving (weather-wise), so I fully expect this winter to drag on for eons like almost all of the others in this era (I hope I’m wrong).

Overall the winters are warmer and shorter than they were years ago. I still have greenery in parts of my garden; there has been no lasting hard frost, and I have earthworms coming out in rainstorms. While there has been a little more snow if you average it out, in no way could we call the last few winters overly long. Now, cool wet Aprils that can feel like winter is hanging on, if that is what you mean, I grant you that. 

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19 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Overall the winters are warmer and shorter than they were years ago. I still have greenery in parts of my garden; there has been no lasting hard frost, and I have earthworms coming out in rainstorms. While there has been a little more snow if you average it out, in no way could we call the last few winters overly long. Now, cool wet Aprils that can feel like winter is hanging on, if that is what you mean, I grant you that. 

The trend over the last few years has been for March to be cold and snowy despite ENSO state

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Dec through Mar NYC temperature departures during the 2010’s

 Year.......Dec...Jan...Feb...Mar

09-10....-1.6...-0.1...-2.2....+5.7

10-11....-4.7...-2.9...+0.7...-0.2

11-12...+5.8...+4.7..+5.6....+8.4

12-13...+4.0...+2.5...-1.4....-2.4

13-14...+1.0...-4.0....-3.7....-4.8

14-15..+3.0....-2.7...-11.4...-4.4

15-16..+13.3..+1.9...+2.4...+6.4

16-17...+0.8...+5.4....+6.3...-3.3

17-18...-2.5.....-0.9.....+6.7..-2.4

18-19.....+................................

 

Dec.....7+......3-

Jan.....4+.....5-

Feb.....5+.....4-

Mar....3+.....6-

 

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1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

Overall the winters are warmer and shorter than they were years ago. I still have greenery in parts of my garden; there has been no lasting hard frost, and I have earthworms coming out in rainstorms. While there has been a little more snow if you average it out, in no way could we call the last few winters overly long. Now, cool wet Aprils that can feel like winter is hanging on, if that is what you mean, I grant you that. 

No lasting hard frost? Did you forget the mid teens in November? That killed any and all perrenials. If you have greenery it’s either new growth or something much hardier. 

 

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52 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

No lasting hard frost? Did you forget the mid teens in November? That killed any and all perrenials. If you have greenery it’s either new growth or something much hardier. 

 

It wasn't that hard down my way; the greenery is parsely. The sage finally gave out. 

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The trend over the last few years has been for March to be cold and snowy despite ENSO state

Yes but in my region it hasn't worked out. It takes a long time to accumulate. In fact the last storm of March was the only one that delivered a serious amount. We did have a small April 1st event that was nice too. Overall though, I am too close to the city and the bay for big numbers in March. Sometimes the first few days of the month have been cold, like in 2015. We do best around here in mid-Jan-mid Feb. A few miles west or east makes a big difference, and 50 miles is huge. 

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3 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

it doesn't, actually. goes into phase 8 near the 2nd week of january on its current iteration. eps 850 temp anomalies are placed similarly to but are a more muted in magnitude than those in the ecm run neg nao posted.

It is actually colder than the op. Gefs is also colder and way different than the op.

Ensembles are the way to go in the long range.

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33 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

can you elaborate ?

1372803110_4indices(1).thumb.png.c4f4914624bb18d0d5a5f8e46a51929f.png

combphase_noCFSsmall.gif.db3410e582ef11f20099715cbfb9db5b.gif

The transition period starts on the 4th for the NAO region. The PNA is sufficient, yet decreasing in heights. The EPO is also decreasing. Based on the MJO, the amplitude for Phase 5/6 is below 2.00, so this would result in a muted ridge for the SE US. At the same time, the strong blocking from the Northern Atlantic will loosen up a bit. Which will allow for a more northerly track. This could mean a Miller B, but Southern New England and Northern New England could receive the most snowfall from this. However, this doesn't mean that the block will loosen enough for an inland runner. IMO, I think this could range from a Coastal Runner to a scraper, depending on the intensity of the East Based NAO and the position of the ridge for both the West and East Coasts.  

 

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3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

What’s your elevation? I would want to be as high as possible to overcome the marginal temps and warm ground. Looks like a Mt. Pocono special 

 

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Nice, 1200’ should be fine. Really anything over 1000’ for more then a slushy coating.

I’m at 850’ and already 30/25. It’s not so much elevation as it is proximity to the coast. The boundary layer on the coast is torched. I’m expecting 1-3” as well

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6 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

It wasn't that hard down my way; the greenery is parsely. The sage finally gave out. 

You got into the mid teens and we’re below 25 for 24 hours plus. That’s as text book a growing season ending event that you will ever see. Your not in a different climate zone then Central Park. Some herbs can be incredibly hardy, I had rose Mary that lasted for 3 full years. All regular perrenials ended for the season in that event. Anything that did not is not a perennial.

I’m not trying to start a fight by the way at all, I just happen to know allot about horticulture as that’s what I do for a living. 

Waiting for some mangled flakes here on the island  

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