MJO812 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 3 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said: FWIW local tv weather peeps now saying chance of snow Xmas eve,,,,just sayin Shortwave will be passing through with some precip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 4 hours ago, Cfa said: NYC has only had a single white Christmas in my lifetime (90’s baby), it simply isn’t a reasonable expectation, in my humble opinion. Snow before the New Year should be viewed as an appetizer, January-March is the meal. that is not accurate at all what about the 2010 day after christmas blizzard or the dec 1947 blizzard.. there has been plenty of big snows in nyc in the month of december.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, nycwinter said: that is not accurate at all what about the 2010 day after christmas blizzard or the dec 1947 blizzard.. there has been plenty of big snows in nyc in the month of december.... He said in his lifetime (1990s to present). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 41degs., or 6degs. AN. Month to date is. +0.8[39.6]. Should be +2.2[39.9] by the 31st. EURO is 5" of Snow for the next 10 days. This seems odd since the EPS has AN 850mb T's all the way. GEFS is 50/50 on at least 5" of Snow by Jan.09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Long range pattern ugly. Aside from wet mood flakes tonight no snow in nyc for at least the next 2-3 weeks. Maybe second half of January might improve. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Long range pattern ugly. Aside from wet mood flakes tonight no snow in nyc for at least the next 2-3 weeks. Maybe second half of January might improve. Yeah it looks atrocious, but it would align with the phase 5/6 MJO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 3 hours ago, nycwinter said: that is not accurate at all what about the 2010 day after christmas blizzard or the dec 1947 blizzard.. there has been plenty of big snows in nyc in the month of december.... Those are rare exceptions though. In our area, any significant snow in December should not be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 8 hours ago, Cfa said: NYC has only had a single white Christmas in my lifetime (90’s baby), it simply isn’t a reasonable expectation, in my humble opinion. Snow before the New Year should be viewed as an appetizer, January-March is the meal. well in nyc since 1990 their have been 6 times of 6 or more inch snowfall in december...long island use to be not as snowy as the city back then but the last 10 years it is more snowy...now...checking long island in general their have been more than just 1 big snows in december since 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Pretty sure Dec 95 was had a white xmas in NYC. Had 8 inches or snow on around the 22nd. Sometime around 2000 we had a rain to snow event that clobbered NYC on xmas day. Last xmas, many of us a few miles north of city had a white xmas. Just throwing that out there. What has disappeared is the cold air around xmas week. But that is more recent then the 90s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Inland areas have a shot of a dusting to an inch tonight. The city should see a mix of rain and snow showers but no accumulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Inland areas have a shot of a dusting to an inch tonight. The city should see a mix of rain and snow showers but no accumulations. Any snow on Xmas Eve , even if it is just flurries is great . If we manage to get anything turn white or accumulate thats a walkoff homerun ---> Merry Christmas all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: EURO gets to the better phases quicker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: EURO gets to the better phases quicker. Doesn't get into phase 8 till second week of January - Euro still warm at 240 with 850's widespread above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Doesn't get into phase 8 till second week of January - Euro still warm at 240 with 850's widespread above normal Which would line up with the Weeklies (following its own MJO pattern of course) With Don and Isotherm sticking to their guns, I have confidence that some point in January we will get into a good pattern and the sub forum will end up with above average snowfall. Thanks to the Nov. Event we had a head start to cover the ground we lost in December in the snowfall department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 27 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Which would line up with the Weeklies (following its own MJO pattern of course) With Don and Isotherm sticking to their guns, I have confidence that some point in January we will get into a good pattern and the sub forum will end up with above average snowfall. Thanks to the Nov. Event we had a head start to cover the ground we lost in December in the snowfall department. 2 things: 1. The EPS at 216 and 240 has a much better look than the OP Euro. After an average week and a one day warm storm, the pattern looks ripe for improvement as we head into January with the +PNA/-NAO and improving MJO. 2. Last winter we had to wait until March for a good pattern (excluding the first 2 weeks of January). I think everyone in hear living near NYC would take a crap pattern in December while the ocean is slowly cooling and a better Jan/Feb pattern where the ocean will screw you much less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 14 hours ago, Dan76 said: When do we start talking about sun angle I wish there was an option to love this comment. I was thinking yesterday with the solstice observed, when can we begin weaving in sun angle mentions? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 2 hours ago, nycwinter said: well in nyc since 1990 their have been 6 times of 6 or more inch snowfall in december...long island use to be not as snowy as the city back then but the last 10 years it is more snowy...now...checking long island in general their have been more than just 1 big snows in december since 2000 6 inches can fall on December 1st and be gone by December 2nd, that doesn’t count as a white Christmas, although I realize that expecting snow to fall on particular calendar days is ridiculous, it doesn’t negate the fact that December generally isn’t as friendly to snow lovers as January, February, and even March. My comment had more to do with some members getting antsy about the absence of snow + the post card version of NYC around the holidays that suggest it’s *supposed* to be snowy, when in reality 50+ degrees is significantly more likely than snow on 12/24 & 12/25. The 2010’s have been the gift that keeps on giving (weather-wise), so I fully expect this winter to drag on for eons like almost all of the others in this era (I hope I’m wrong). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, mikem81 said: 2 things: 1. The EPS at 216 and 240 has a much better look than the OP Euro. After an average week and a one day warm storm, the pattern looks ripe for improvement as we head into January with the +PNA/-NAO and improving MJO. 2. Last winter we had to wait until March for a good pattern (excluding the first 2 weeks of January). I think everyone in hear living near NYC would take a crap pattern in December while the ocean is slowly cooling and a better Jan/Feb pattern where the ocean will screw you much less. Agreed, Last December had above average snowfall for most as well. Usually we have either March or December, last year we had both but sacrificed February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 25 minutes ago, North and West said: I wish there was an option to love this comment. I was thinking yesterday with the solstice observed, when can we begin weaving in sun angle mentions? Well the sun angle was relevant when we got all those storms in March, but that's because a higher sun angle yields rising averages. It has little effect in February though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 from what I'm reading, we can knock the NYE snowstorm off the table? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 58 minutes ago, North and West said: I wish there was an option to love this comment. I was thinking yesterday with the solstice observed, when can we begin weaving in sun angle mentions? Tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 36 minutes ago, ny10019 said: from what I'm reading, we can knock the NYE snowstorm off the table? the 12Z models that have run so far are not showing it - we will remain in this pattern until further notice - Strat warming event will peak mid week takes about 2 - 3 weeks to see the results at the surface and the MJO is still in 5 and won't be in a favorable phase 8 -3 until second week of January at least 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 28 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Greetings, hope everyone is enjoying this nice December :-) I had the gruel all ready to warm by the fireplace. Wasn’t expecting you until about midnight. No matter, welcome back. as always, .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 33 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: the 12Z models that have run so far are not showing it - we will remain in this pattern until further notice - Strat warming event will peak mid week takes about 2 - 3 weeks to see the results at the surface and the MJO is still in 5 and won't be in a favorable phase 8 -3 until second week of January at least we'll get there but it will be a slow slog through the mud...December will end up being a warm month, +1 to +2 with little to possibly no snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 I am not sure how anyone can definitively say what will happen with over a week to go ? I am not saying we WILL have snow but IF this is remotely accurate and as close as the GFS shows I would not dismiss the possibility / YET----but thats me . https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018122312&fh=192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 The fact that December is ending above average already proves that the La Niña-esque weather pattern is coming to an end. So yeah, bring on the mild end of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 17 hours ago, Dan76 said: When do we start talking about sun angle It becomes really noticeable IMO when the calendar hits February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 32 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: The fact that December is ending above average already proves that the La Niña-esque weather pattern is coming to an end. So yeah, bring on the mild end of December. We are getting the classic mild December El Niño ridge over North America. But the continuing +SOI is associated with an extension of the La Niña ridge north of Hawaii. So the jet configuration is different across the North Pacific than is typically the case in an El Niño December. Stronger jet max further to the north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: we'll get there but it will be a slow slog through the mud...December will end up being a warm month, +1 to +2 with little to possibly no snow.... +1 to +2 above the 1981-2010 average is about normal for today's December climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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