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December 2018 General Discussion & Observations


Zelocita Weather
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13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I kind of buy the Arctic like wave for NYE after the 27/28 cutter. 

The post Superbowl event comes to mind.

Gfs looks good for NYE. It will all be about timing for the NYE event like it always is.

Like Earthlight and others have said , a better pattern will evolve as we head into January.w

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Just now, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

Okay. Let's get real. When do you think we will reverse?

IMO we will continue in the current pattern cold - followed by rainstorms into the first week of 2019 then we will transition into a persistent cold pattern with plenty of blocking -NAO and a positive PNA and the EPO improving by the 10th.Wild Card is the MJO IMO...……..

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33 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

IMO we will continue in the current pattern cold - followed by rainstorms into the first week of 2019 then we will transition into a persistent cold pattern with plenty of blocking -NAO and a positive PNA and the EPO improving by the 10th.Wild Card is the MJO IMO...……..

Mjo is moving along to the favorable phases

Euro was really close with the NYE storm. That is the next storm we have to watch.

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I think we'll get the 27/28 cutter followed by a potential wave/snow threat for NYE, which will then be followed by another cutter first week of Jan. 

Each week in January will get progressively more favorable then it's probably game on last 7-10 days of Jan into Feb.

MJO should gradually move into the favorable phases as the month rolls on, SSW influences could also kick in late Jan tanking the AO.

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4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

there is no proof the MJO is moving along to favorable phases which in January are 8 -1-2 and 3. Right now its stuck in 5  - why are you looking at an euro op run ?

No proof?

Do you even look at maps or just go by what Upton says?

I rather look at an euro op run than a 240 hour cmc run or a para gfs run in the long range. Para has been awful.

The ensembles and op runs are hinting at a possible storm but go ahead ,ignore the signal.

I'm not saying it will def happen but we should watch it.

Every other forum is starting to track this possible NYE storm. 

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

Alot of uncertainty right now.   Last 10 days of December will certainly not be as cold as some thought, another cutter on the 28th and maybe another one after that and the SSW event that looked likely is now shaky....  Patience is the key for the next couple weeks.

How is it shaky? Everything is coming along as planned.

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23 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Lmao boy this thread is comedy 

yup

25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Alot of uncertainty right now.   Last 10 days of December will certainly not be as cold as some thought, another cutter on the 28th and maybe another one after that and the SSW event that looked likely is now shaky....  Patience is the key for the next couple weeks.

agreed - some folks think this pattern is going to radically change at the flip of a switch with consistent cold and snow chances - going to take till the second week in January to get where we want to be IMO and who knows how long that will last once the pattern flips to colder and snowier...……..

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10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

yup

agreed - some folks think this pattern is going to radically change at the flip of a switch with consistent cold and snow chances - going to take till the second week in January to get where we want to be IMO and who knows how long that will last once the pattern flips to colder and snowier...……..

it's almost always slower than modeled, you'll note we keep pushing back...got to get things to move up and not be 10 days away.    Last week of December looks to be average to above average for temps with one day in the upper 50's with the next cutter.   

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8 weeks until pitchers and catchers, 10 weeks until March 1st. Speaking of March, I had about 45” last March.

Not sure why people are getting bent out of shape about the lack of snow in December. December is late Autumn, not deep Winter. Be happy we had a bonus storm in November and move on. 

 

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21 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

8 weeks until pitchers and catchers, 10 weeks until March 1st. Speaking of March, I had about 45” last March.

Not sure why people are getting bent out of shape about the lack of snow in December. December is late Autumn, not deep Winter. Be happy we had a bonus storm in November and move on. 

 

Two reasons. December averages anywhere from 5-10 inches for the month through most of our region so getting shut out is annoying. The second and biggest reason is every snow weenie wants snow before or on Christmas. They'd be freaks if they didn't.

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7 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

yup

agreed - some folks think this pattern is going to radically change at the flip of a switch with consistent cold and snow chances - going to take till the second week in January to get where we want to be IMO and who knows how long that will last once the pattern flips to colder and snowier...……..

If it transitions to the pattern that was predicted at the peak of snow season, then it may take until Jan 20 or so, which is what happened in 13-14.  But you could still get a solid 6 weeks to 8 weeks of snow and cold.

 

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