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December 2018 General Discussion & Observations


Zelocita Weather
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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At least today, the storm around the  start of January looks to be colder than the one around the 28th. But I would like to see if it survives the recent colder storm getting pushed back effect first.

 

A00EFA52-4F0D-4670-816F-B60C5E7373ED.thumb.png.79956334fb439235e865b3d0505889b6.png

5C68CD72-D26E-4D54-A703-2D590597E48F.thumb.png.3fae4e015009be46277162e06d3e3a14.png

 

I think the Primary on the 28th has to cut because it digs into the 4 corners and kicks that ridge up for a day , I just think there`s a real oppo on the backside.

I do think there is some front end ice on the 28th in the H/V because of the air mass in front of it has some low level cold air with it. 

The Canadian ensembles are too cold in the D 10 -15 , the GEFS looks a little too warm , so I took the EPS mid ground for the last 5 days of the month / front 5  at 2m.

 

 

cmc_t2ma_5d_noram_65  CANADIAN  DEC 20 DAY 10 -15.png

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29 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

I think the Primary on the 28th has to cut because it digs into the 4 corners and kicks that ridge up for a day , I just think there`s a real oppo on the backside.

I do think there is some front end ice on the 28th in the H/V because of the air mass in front of it has some low level cold air with it. 

The Canadian ensembles are too cold in the D 10 -15 , the GEFS looks a little too warm , so I took the EPS mid ground for the last 5 days of the month / front 5  at 2m.

 

I want to wait until one of the reliable models holds something cold within the 120 hr mark. The models have been in full push back mode  since they lost the record MA snowstorm for us in early December.

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I want to wait until one of the reliable models holds something cold within the 120 hr mark. The models have been in full push back mode  since they lost the record MA snowstorm for us in early December.

We have to wait and see what the SSW does. That is if there is one coming. There's a high chance anyway.

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29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I want to wait until one of the reliable models holds something cold within the 120 hr mark. The models have been in full push back mode  since they lost the record MA snowstorm for us in early December.

I agree-nothing has really moved up in time-looked snowy 12/23-24, then it was the 28th and now we're back to the 1st...

-

the 28th is now rain to the Canadian border...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_31.png

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7 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

We have to wait and see what the SSW does. That is if there is one coming. There's a high chance anyway.

A SSW is pretty much guaranteed at this point, it looks like a pretty strong event too.

I don't think we'll see anything of consequence until mid Jan but it's not impossible that we sneak something before that.

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

A SSW is pretty much guaranteed at this point, it looks like a pretty strong event too.

I don't think we'll see anything of consequence until mid Jan but it's not impossible that we sneak something before that.

 Pattern will get here, but models always rush it....

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3 minutes ago, Animal said:

Ncep is much different

It shifted east a little with the WCB axis, which seems consistent with the current WV loop. It's already an historic storm on the greater meteorological stage in terms of record-breaking PWATs, wind anomalies at multiple pressure levels, etc. I just wouldn't assume that translates to biblical weather in everybody's backyard. The difference between 2.5" and 4" of rain is almost imperceptible anyway, especially if much or most of it falls at night.

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18 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

It shifted east a little with the WCB axis, which seems consistent with the current WV loop. It's already an historic storm on the greater meteorological stage in terms of record-breaking PWATs, wind anomalies at multiple pressure levels, etc. I just wouldn't assume that translates to biblical weather in everybody's backyard. The difference between 2.5" and 4" of rain is almost imperceptible anyway, especially if much or most of it falls at night.

Gfs show near 1.5 at my house.

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2 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Snowgoose or anyone else is there somewhere for me to view the UKIE on my own or is it only on paid sites ? I don't see it on TTB or on Weather.us,,,thanks in advance

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=048&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144

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Next 8 days averaging 44degs , or 9degs. AN.

Month to date is  -0.5[38.6].     Should be +2.3[40.2] by the 29th.   Yesterday was the last day for BN this month (on a monthly basis).

EPS has 1" of Snow for the next 10 days.    GEFS has a 70% of at least 4" by Jan. 06.

Currently 55, Rain/Fog here, nearing 6am.

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Our annual December warm up around the winter solstice is right on track. White Plains just set a new record high of 61 degrees . The previous record high for 12-21 was set back in 2013 at 59 degrees.

White Plains   LGT RAIN  60  59  96 SE29G40   29.52F FOG
Almanac for WESTCHESTER COUNTY AP, NY
December 21, 2018
Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest
Max Temperature M 39 59 in 2013 14 in 1955

 

LGA just broke another 2010’s record high set back in 2011. New record of 62 beating the 61 in 2011.

https://mobile.twitter.com/iembot_okx/status/1076094806831648768

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