NJwx85 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, doncat said: Euro showing 3-4+" of precip during next ten days, more stations may be setting yearly records. Most places around here will see at least 2-3" of rain over the next 36 hours, especially West of the Hudson river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Chance of some flakes on Christmas eve and then we have to watch a possible storm for NYE. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Chance of some flakes on Christmas eve and then we have to watch a possible storm for NYE. It also shows something on the 26th. It’s continuing on an off to try to break off a vort from that cutter and run it out ahead of the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 15 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Chance of some flakes on Christmas eve and then we have to watch a possible storm for NYE. Just 10 short days away...it all keeps getting pushed back....never a good sign...and the potential SSW event is also getting pushed back....bad trends today IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 hour ago, Toekneeweather said: Euro has a white Christmas. White rain mostly but we could get a few inches north and west. Still good enough Can you elaborate on this a bit more please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, David-LI said: Can you elaborate on this a bit more please? A shortwave will be passing through with a little snow for everyone but nothing big at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 27 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Chance of some flakes on Christmas eve and then we have to watch a possible storm for NYE. ???? New years eve is 11 days away - what proof do you have ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Just now, NEG NAO said: instead of just making these bold statements - please back it up with some proof...... How are these bold statements ? People have been talking about Christmas and NYE for a while on here. Models are showing some flakes for Christmas eve. Nothing big though. Every model and their ensembles have a storm near NYE. Too early to say what it will be but there is a good chance of snow with that. ( alot of cold air around ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Just now, NEG NAO said: ???? New years eve is 11 days away - what proof do you have ? Models Big signal on every model . Still early though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Models Big signal on every model . Still early though. fantasy at this juncture... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: How are these bold statements ? People have been talking about Christmas and NYE for a while on here. Models are showing some flakes for Christmas eve. Nothing big though. Every model and their ensembles have a storm near NYE. Too early to say what it will be but there is a good chance of snow with that. ( alot of cold air around ) This is the 12Z GFS para for New Years Eve - your turn ..……. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 The SE Ridge will continue to be a factor until we see some improvement on the MJO front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: fantasy at this juncture... Of course it is 11 days out It's still a signal though when every model and ensembles show something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Just now, bluewave said: The SE Ridge will continue to be a factor until we see some improvement on the MJO front. Models have a east based negative nao. The models might be overdoing the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: This is the 12Z GFS para for New Years Eve - your turn ..……. Why are you looking at an op run this far out? Ensembles are the way to go and they have a signal. I can't post pictures from my phone for some reason . The signal is there. That's all I have to say. Believe and think what you want but I'm tracking that possible storm with others on other forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Models have a east based negative nao. The models might be overdoing the ridge. An east based -NAO isn’t much help with an unfavorable Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Just now, bluewave said: An east based -NAO isn’t much help without a favorable Pacific. yep, the EPO is still positive...not much help anywhere right now, +NAO, poor MJO etc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardontheeuro Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 a complete analysis of the pattern, not just one run of an erratic not yet released model shows ridiculous potential for new years. It's a signal that is only growing stronger. And an east based -NAO has been one of the best producers on the east coast for years, include bad pac patterns @bluewave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: An east based -NAO isn’t much help with an unfavorable Pacific. True but it can suppress the heights in the east. The Pacific isn't that bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: yep, the EPO is still positive...not much help anywhere right now, +NAO, poor MJO etc There is s chance but slim. We need the pattern to reshuffle and it looks like that may happen by the new year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Just now, blizzardontheeuro said: a complete analysis of the pattern, not just one run of an erratic not yet released model shows ridiculous potential for new years. It's a signal that is only growing stronger. And an east based -NAO has been one of the best producers on the east coast for years, include bad pac patterns @bluewave agree on all points Isotherm thinks the 27th still might trend south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Plenty of chances for this to become a snowy end of December. If not we still have January and I would especially watch February! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 21 minutes ago, Snow88 said: There is s chance but slim. We need the pattern to reshuffle and it looks like that may happen by the new year. 20 minutes ago, Snow88 said: agree on all points Isotherm thinks the 27th still might trend south very unlikely - the pattern will remain the same until 2 - 3 weeks after the peak of the Strat Warming event - 2nd week of January at the earliest we will see the results at the surface...….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said: February! Meh...sun angle then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 31 minutes ago, bluewave said: The SE Ridge will continue to be a factor until we see some improvement on the MJO front. Those high heights have HP underneath them, so the 2M are BN all next week. You will prob see that cut but New Years could end up like the Super Bowl storm from 3 years ago. You are going to press and Arctic front through on the backside of that last SW and LP will prob want to run along the Arctic Boundary. This time you`re going to do that with blocking , so you have a higher ceiling for this one. Even though these heights are high , take a look at the same EPS anomalies for Mon - Thrs , they are BN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: very unlikely - the pattern will remain the same until 2 - 3 weeks after the peak of the Strat Warming event - 2nd week of January at the earliest we will see the results at the surface...….. Pattern gets better after this weekends cutter , the EPS is BN all week next week with a poss light snow event just N and W . The last in a series of cutters is likely around the 27/28 , ( prob not strong - gets shredded ) and then by New Years you snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 15 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Pattern gets better after this weekends cutter , the EPS is BN all week next week with a poss light snow event just N and W . The last in a series of cutters is likely around the 27/28 , ( prob not strong - gets shredded ) and then by New Years you snow. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 28, 2018 - JAN 03, 2019 TODAY'S MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. MODERATELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS FORECAST WITH RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVORED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WHILE TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. UPSTREAM, RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS TO EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA WITH ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH RIDGING. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA, THE ALEUTIANS, AND THE PANHANDLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RIDGING. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MAINLAND DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDED TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEAR AND AHEAD OF MEAN TROUGHING. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR CALIFORNIA AND EXTENDING TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES UNDERNEATH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH PRODICTED OVER THE BRING SEA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Just now, NEG NAO said: 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 28, 2018 - JAN 03, 2019 TODAY'S MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. MODERATELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS FORECAST WITH RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVORED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WHILE TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. UPSTREAM, RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS TO EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA WITH ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH RIDGING. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA, THE ALEUTIANS, AND THE PANHANDLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RIDGING. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MAINLAND DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDED TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEAR AND AHEAD OF MEAN TROUGHING. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR CALIFORNIA AND EXTENDING TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES UNDERNEATH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH PRODICTED OVER THE BRING SEA. EPS friend -Day 10 - 15 are much colder than this 7 day mean See the EPS day 10 -15 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 28 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Those high heights have HP underneath them, so the 2M are BN all next week. You will prob see that cut but New Years could end up like the Super Bowl storm from 3 years ago. You are going to press and Arctic front through on the backside of that last SW and LP will prob want to run along the Arctic Boundary. This time you`re going to do that with blocking , so you have a higher ceiling for this one. Even though these heights are high , take a look at the same EPS anomalies for Mon - Thrs , they are BN At least today, the storm near the start of January looks to be colder than the one around the 28th. But I would like to see if it survives the recent colder storm getting pushed back effect first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 This is pretty interesting. https://www.axios.com/el-nino-is-developing-in-pacific-ocean-winter-2019-9d878cf0-a7a5-45e5-8459-b041f209e199.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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