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December 2018 General Discussion & Observations


Zelocita Weather
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Slow changes getting underway...

ter 7 consecutive days during which the SOI was +10.00 or higher, the SOI fell sharply today. Today's figure was +7.68. Yesterday was +21.90. The SOI will likely go negative within a week +/- a few days based on the latest guidance.

The MJO remained in Phase 4, but its amplitude fell below 2.000. The MJO will soon be entering Phase 5. Further, its amplitude will decline, but despite some of the guidance suggesting that its amplitude will fall below 1.000 in two weeks or less, the persistence of its high amplitude and past periods of long-duration high amplitudes suggests that such a shift may take longer than two weeks. A low amplitude MJO is probably more likely to develop after the first or second week of January than the beginning of the month.

What has not changed is the regular occurrence of high QPF events. Another significant precipitation event will affect the East Thursday (Southeast) and Friday (remainder of the East).

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Is the old order decaying and a new one beginning to rise?

After 7 consecutive days of the SOI's remaining at or above +10.00 during an El Niño event, the SOI fell sharply from +21.90 yesterday to +7.68 today.

January 2019 Forecasts (CFSv2):
CFSv212192018.jpg

Blue shading indicates colder than normal temperatures; orange, red, and brown shading indicates warmer than normal temperatures.

Note: The CFSv2 is still outside its reasonably skilled range. The important point is that the model is starting to pick up on developments that could favor colder conditions in the eastern United States and parts of Canada.

Overall, my thinking about winter 2018-19 remains unchanged.

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2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Euro has light snow for the 26th with 1-3 inches for the city with more inland.

 

That’s about the best setup for a SWFE you can get here.  The energy crashing into the west prevents amplification of the wave and that’s usually how we avoid seeing the snow to rain classic SWFEs or see mostly snow.  Any SWFE with ridging in the west typically will track over or to our north 

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That’s about the best setup for a SWFE you can get here.  The energy crashing into the west prevents amplification of the wave and that’s usually how we avoid seeing the snow to rain classic SWFEs or see mostly snow.  Any SWFE with ridging in the west typically will track over or to our north 

Models are now starting to show an east based negative nao.

The snow might be legit.

The gfs is starting to show something now

 

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>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>GALE WARNING    NY HARBOR AREA

 
This is an important message from NY Alert

Issued To: New York Harbor

HEADLINE: Gale Warning issued December 19 at 3:26PM EST until December 21 at 6:00PM EST by NWS New York City - Upton

DESCRIPTION: ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY...
The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Gale Warning,
which is in effect from 1 AM to 6 PM EST Friday.
* WINDS...Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt.

INSTRUCTIONS: A Gale Warning means sustained winds or frequent gusts of 34 to
47 kt are expected or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale
conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It
is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience
seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>FLOOD WATCH   NYC

 

HEADLINE: Flood Watch issued December 19 at 3:21PM EST until December 21 at 5:00AM EST by NWS New York City - Upton

DESCRIPTION: ...FLOOD WATCH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...
The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a
* Flood Watch for portions of southern Connecticut, northeast
New Jersey, and southeast New York, including the following
areas, in southern Connecticut, Northern Fairfield, Northern
Middlesex, Northern New Haven, Northern New London, Southern
Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern New Haven, and
Southern New London. In northeast New Jersey, Eastern Bergen,
Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western
Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western Union. In
southeast New York, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York
(Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Northern
Queens, Northern Westchester, Northwestern Suffolk, Orange,
Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southeastern
Suffolk, Southern Nassau, Southern Queens, Southern
Westchester, and Southwestern Suffolk.
* From late Thursday night through late Friday night
* An area of low pressure moving up the spine of the Appalachians
Thursday into Friday will result in a widespread 2 to 3 inch
rainfall across the region. The rain could be heavy at times,
especially late Thursday night into Friday.
* The heavy rain will result in the potential for flooding of
urban, low lying, and poor drainage areas, as well as minor
river flooding on fast responding streams. In addition, flooding
concerns could be exacerbated along the coast if the heaviest
rain coincided with the Friday morning high tide.

INSTRUCTIONS: A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop.

Issued By: NWS New York City - Upton (Long Island and New York City)

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Isotherm

"

The putative "cutter" on the 18z GEFS for the 27th-28th now cannot achieve > 0c 850mb temperatures north of NYC [energy transfer beginning to be detected]. No changes from me - 23rd onward for sufficient cold and possible threats. Models adjusting precisely as anticipated."

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I'd watch the Poconos and NW NJ for flash flooding on Friday with the upcoming rain. Models are showing an upslope enhancement in those areas due to the very moist southerly flow reaching the hills/mountains and forced upward. That could be where you see 3-4" totals or locally more. Elsewhere, the heavy amounts will depend on how long the LLJ firehose stays overhead for the most part. 

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4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I'd watch the Poconos and NW NJ for flash flooding on Friday with the upcoming rain. Models are showing an upslope enhancement in those areas due to the very moist southerly flow reaching the hills/mountains and forced upward. That could be where you see 3-4" totals or locally more. Elsewhere, the heavy amounts will depend on how long the LLJ firehose stays overhead for the most part. 

Yeah I dont buy the maxima over CT there, based on the storm tracking to our west, I believe the maximum rainfall will be in the mountains just to the west of us, in the Poconos and NW NJ.  You dont usually see precip maxima that far east with the storm tracking to your west.

 

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Next 8 days averaging 45degs., or 10degs. AN.

Month to date is -0.9[38.4].    Should be +2.3[40.4] by the 28th.

EPS back to No Snow for the next 10 days.   GEFS is 40% on at least 6" by Jan.05.

December is being sacrificed to the weather gods.    We should get their blessings again promptly with the New Year.  

If the LR Models are wrong, we can start using them to predict the economy and stock market movements.  Lol.

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1 hour ago, CarLover014 said:

As long as I can leave Christmas Eve without running into any sloppy weather, you can have all the rain/snow you want. 

NYD looks good on the FV3. A little suppressed for New England but looks nice for here

new GFS is fairly dry for xmas eve and then is setting up another storm for the 27th-looks wet though.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

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12 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said:

Icon has a white Christmas. Not particularly a lot of snow but snow flakes flying around...we need more support

The models have no clue which system or disturbancr to focus on.  The 12Z NAM has nothing.  The GFS seemed to be headed in the direction of focusing on the system for the 26th.  It at least tried to get something going across the southern Lakes   

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