December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

[NEG NAO]

13 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Way too far out. 

agreed and will change many times and teleconnections still unfavorable

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, ag3 said:

A beast rain storm.

You aren't new at this

This will change a million times

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

what are you talking about ???

I didn't say what kind if beast. Strong signal for a storm for Nye

Pattern is going to get better as we go through December. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

agreed and will change many times and teleconnections still unfavorable

Tellies are going to get better along with the mjo. Watch the end of December for some snow.

[NEG NAO]

42 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Tellies are going to get better along with the mjo. Watch the end of December for some snow.

that's true and even in an unfavorable pattern it can still snow. Also if the MJO goes into phase 5 that is a favorable phase during an El Nino contrary to what some folks have been advertising around here.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

what are you talking about ???

 

The signal is definitely there. This all depends on the EPO and NAO.

[Rtd208]

A significant rainfall is on the way for Thursday night/Friday. Flood Watch is effect here from Thursday evening thru Friday evening for 1-3" of rain with locally higher amounts.

[bluewave]

33 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

A significant rainfall is on the way for Thursday night/Friday. Flood Watch is effect here from Thursday evening thru Friday evening for 1-3" of rain with locally higher amounts.

Very impressive tropical moisture and WAA surge. Euro has close to record high temperatures and PWATS. Someone should probably start a separate thread.

 

[Gravity Wave]

I know it's still fantasy range, but the fact that every GFS run within range has had a major storm in the East for the New Years period is encouraging. 18z is a bomb. Euro and CMC will start coming into range on Friday.

[donsutherland1]

With high PWAT values and an energetic system that will tap abundant Atlantic moisture. a widespread 1"-2" rainfall appears likely from late Thursday in the Middle Atlantic region to Friday across much of the Northeast. Localized amounts could approach 3".

All in all, a very wet year continues. Below is a chart showing year-to-date precipitation and ranking scenarios for 1"-2" precipitation.

To date, among the following locations have had their wettest year on record:

Baltimore: 68.82"
Boonton (1 SE), NJ: 73.05"
Charleston, WV: 63.74"
Cumberland (2), MD: 65.10"
Danville: 64.27"
Elizabeth City, NC: 62.84"
Elmira, NY: 55.51"
Emmittsburg (2 SE), MD: 74.41"
Frostburg (2), MD: 72.82"
Hamburg, PA: 73.06"
Highlands, NC: 112.29"
Lakeland, FL: 72.73"
Lynchburg: 61.80"
Newport/Morehead City WFO, NC: 99.64"
Reading: 64.92"
Roanoke: 59.03"
Shirley, NY: 58.19"
Upton NWSFO, NY: 67.72"
Washington, DC: 64.22"
Wilmington, NC: 100.14"
Woonsocket, RI: 65.90"

Note: This list is not all inclusive.

[qg_omega]

2 hours ago, Gravity Wave said:

I know it's still fantasy range, but the fact that every GFS run within range has had a major storm in the East for the New Years period is encouraging. 18z is a bomb. Euro and CMC will start coming into range on Friday.

It's actually meaningless at this stage, just noise and a no storm is just as likely

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It's actually meaningless at this stage, just noise and a no storm is just as likely

Meaningless? Many major storms have come as signals at this lead time. 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It's actually meaningless at this stage, just noise and a no storm is just as likely

With a more El Nino like upper-level flow coming near New Year's, I would be careful to say that. It's more likely to hit or become an inland runner. Much like the late week storm. 

[ForestHillWx]

1-2" of rain as progged will push the major North Jersey rivers...I'm looking at you Passaic...up and over the banks. FYI to any of your family members in totowa/Wayne/Lincoln park. 

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Very impressive tropical moisture and WAA surge. Euro has close to record high temperatures and PWATS. Someone should probably start a separate thread.

Highly anomalous, someone could easily see 3-4" if not more, convective look too. 

Strong wind gusts likely as well and maybe some coastal flooding too.

[JerseyWx]

31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Highly anomalous, someone could easily see 3-4" if not more, convective look too. 

Strong wind gusts likely as well and maybe some coastal flooding too.

Yep.  Big rains on Sunday and not even a week later another soaker is in store.  Looks very warm too like Bluewave mentioned.

[Toekneeweather]

34 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Yep.  Big rains on Sunday and not even a week later another soaker is in store.  Looks very warm too like Bluewave mentioned.

Too much rain hopefully models start showing some snow soon prime time is the next month 2 months!

[MJO812]

The 27th and 29th storms are more suppressed on this 0z run than 18z.

Hopefully this is a trend

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Who is calling for a late January comeback?

Everyone is calling for a change in early January.

The analogs used all have a Jan 20ish or so real start to the snow season.  1977-78, 2004-05, 2014-15, basically it's going to be really snowy when winter is at its peak.

Anything before that (like the November storm) will be gravy.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 44degs., or 9degs. AN.

Month to date is -0.8[38.6].     Should be +2.2[40.2] by the 27th.

EPS is a trace for the next 10 days.   GEFS is 60% for at least 5" Snow by Jan. 04.

27 here at 6am.

[tim]

..19* here..clear skies..no wind

KFOK 16*.

[MJO812]

Euro has  some snow for the northeast on Xmas eve and then some more snow for the Mid Atlantic the day after xmas.

[mikem81]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Good thing we are going through the milder MJO phases in late December instead of near the peak of snowfall further  into the winter. This will give the MJO a shot at passing closer to the more favorable phases during January.

 

 

 

Thats only modeling of the MJO. The Euro/UK/NCPE are all much slower in moving it out of phase 5

[frd]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 Remember, we were discussing the milder mid-December temperature potential back in late November. But as usual, the models were too quick to go into the null phase. So now we have this milder pattern lingering into late December. Hopefully, the same thing happens as we move through January and the colder 7-2 phases start showing up the closer in we get. I posted the longer range EPS in that spirit of moving closer to those phases in January.

 

@bluewave, Interesting that all the talk from certain mets that the SSTs Northwest of Aussie would support less of what we are going through now, yet we linger in the warm phases.  

I imagine they rare eferring to a feedback where the more favorable phases would happen more often and the warmer phases would either be less amplitude or maybe even more so in the COD. ( and then reappear in the colder plhases sooner ) 

What do you think ?

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, frd said:

 

@bluewave, Interesting that all the talk from certain mets that the SSTs Northwest of Aussie would support less of what we are going through now, yet we linger in the warm phases.  

I imagine they rare eferring to a feedback where the more favorable phases would happen more often and the warmer phases would either be less amplitude or maybe even more so in the COD. ( and then reappear in the colder plhases sooner ) 

What do you think ?

The WPAC region west of the dateline has seen record warmth in recent years as the global SST’s rise. Latest research suggests that  warming in these regions will intensify the MJO. So we have to consider this wild card more when doing middle and even long range forecasts. Very  strong to record  MJO activity has been common during the 2010’s.

[frd]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The WPAC region west of the dateline has seen record warmth in recent years as the global SST’s rise. Latest research suggests that  warming in these regions will intensify the MJO. So we have to consider this wildcard more when doing middle and even long range forecasts. We have seen very strong to record  MJO activity during the 2010’s.

Good point, and this goes with your previous post, imagine if the cold and the more favorable phases of the MJO combine in later Jan. 

So much to consider now, and for Jan and Feb as well, forecasting-wise. It will be a challenge in regards to the cold pattern arriving and the storm threats. 

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, frd said:

Good point, and this goes with your previous post, imagine if the cold and the more favorable phases of the MJO combine in later Jan. 

So much to consider now, and for Jan and Feb as well, forecasting-wise. It will be a challenge in regards to the cold pattern arriving and the storm threats. 

 

This may be the main reason why our snow seasons for the most part seem to be contracting to January-February even in the best years (with some exceptions of course, like last winter.)  Average snowfall in December and March has been going down consistently vs the long term averages.  January and February snowfall have been higher (even in a warmer background state.)  This makes sense because December and March are borderline months as it is, push the temps slightly higher and snowfall goes down a lot.

 

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, frd said:

Good point, and this goes with your previous post, imagine if the cold and the more favorable phases of the MJO combine in later Jan. 

So much to consider now, and for Jan and Feb as well, forecasting-wise. It will be a challenge in regards to the cold pattern arriving and the storm threats. 

 

Yeah, this current MJO 5 look is better to get outside the traditional snowiest part of winter.

 

[frd]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this kind of MJO 5 look is better to get outside the traditional snowiest part of winter.

Very true. I look forward to see how things move forward.

Looking out to late Dec. and early Jan.,  I see a lot of snow cover moving back South across the lower NH after the current spike lower we are having.  ( after being  previously at ten year highs, or close to it ).

Still fascinated to see if the post yesterday about using the subtraction of GWHDDs from weeks 51/50 hold any relationship moving forward to our sensible weather in Jan and Feb. 

<<

This is fascinating, the biggest mid-late Dec warmups (week 51 minus week 50 GWHDDs) are associated with some absolutely epic winters, esp. 1962, 1977, 1978, 2002

>>

 

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, frd said:

Very true. I look forward to see how things move forward.

Looking out to late Dec. and early Jan.,  I see a lot of snow cover moving back South across the lower NH after the current spike lower we are having.  ( after being  previously at ten year highs, or close to it ).

Still fascinated to see if the post yesterday about using the subtraction of GWHDDs from weeks 51/50 hold any relationship moving forward to our sensible weather in Jan and Feb. 

<<

This is fascinating, the biggest mid-late Dec warmups (week 51 minus week 50 GWHDDs) are associated with some absolutely epic winters, esp. 1962, 1977, 1978, 2002

>>

 

It has been typical for us to get these December warm ups around the winter solstice followed by colder temperatures during the JF and even M periods during the 2010’s.