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December 2018 General Discussion & Observations


Zelocita Weather
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Down south, very heavy rain has fallen in such cities as Charleston, Tallahassee, and Wilmington. Additional moderate to heavy rain is expected in the Middle Atlantic and Southeastern regions overnight and tomorrow.

Some possible highlights by the end of tonight or tomorrow:

- Elizabeth City, NC: 2018 could become that city's wettest year on record.
- Washington, DC: 2018 could become that city's wettest year on record. As of 9:25 pm, 61.04" precipitation had fallen. The record is 61.33", which was set in 1889.
- Wilmington, NC: 2018 precipitation, which stood at 99.64" as of 9:25 pm, could reach and surpass 100" for the year.

Already, Baltimore, Charleston (WV), Danville, Lynchburg, and Reading are among the cities that have set annual precipitation records.

However, in the northern Middle Atlantic region, most of the precipitation will be held to the south. But Sunday could become rainy across the region. As a result, cities such as Atlantic City, Bridgeport, Islip, New York, and Philadelphia pick up a general 0.50"-1.00" rain. Some locally higher amounts are possible.

Here's where things currently stand and where they would stand under various scenarios:

Rain12142018.jpg

Sunday night and Monday, the rain could change to accumulating snow across central New York State, with some chance of accumulations reaching into southeast New York State. A swatch of New England could also receive accumulating snow. The 12/15 0z run of the NAM even brings accumulations to Boston where just 0.1" snow has been recorded to date.

In the longer-range, the guidance has become a little less impressed with the development of a negative EPO. Nevertheless, the Pacific SSTAs argue that a negative EPO will likely predominate this winter. There could still be enough cold air around to present the risk of accumulating snowfall in parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions during the last week of December.

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Next 8 days averaging 43degs., or 7degs. AN.

Month to date is -2.2[37.9].    Should be +1.1[39.7] by the 23rd.

EPS is No Snow for the next 10 days.     GEFS is 50/50 on at least 2" by the 30th.

Temps. for the rest of Dec. barely go below freezing----I think we will be 'skunked' snowise for the month.   Only about 15% of all Decembers since 1869 have a T or 0" monthly total.

I said a week ago that we would be greeting winter with a +20 day.    Looks 'good' for the 21st.  LoL

The trend of shorter but more violent winters will win out again if the LR gets us there by Jan. 18 +/-  a few days.

The wildcard is the effects we will feel from any SSW's.

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11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It would have been better for this area if it was moderate or stronger.

This is the first time that we have El Niño threashold SST’s combined with such a positive SOI in December. I have been pointing out the lack of coupling between the ocean and atmosphere going back into the mid to late fall. Now the forcing is moving to the La Niña-like MJO Martitime Continent phases. You can see the longer range guidance moving to more a -PNA look later in the month. My guess is that this is related to all the record SST warmth north and east of Australia.

SOI

15 Dec 2018 1012.11 1005.25 16.29 4.29 0.82
14 Dec 2018 1013.05 1005.15 21.69 3.69 0.72
13 Dec 2018 1012.83 1005.20 20.29 2.95 0.59
12 Dec 2018 1011.75 1005.45 13.39 2.36 0.46
11 Dec 2018 1010.69 1006.20 4.00 1.89 0.37

FB4B8A67-5B21-48D2-B84C-EA8B5F0EAD36.thumb.png.ee576aaf55bb25e51cbce8e405985643.pngC3CB2596-18D9-47E0-90CB-C6BC8D5FDF07.thumb.png.e3a16095ebaca0fb252557e0cc9e0fe7.pngB79AEDFB-2953-4A0D-8D42-B0D15E67BEDF.gif.f6b1d36506e3c9cb6f75a986757077b7.gif

 

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27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the first time that we have El Niño threashold SST’s combined with such a positive SOI in December. I have been pointing out the lack of coupling between the ocean and atmosphere going back into the mid to late fall. Now the forcing is moving to the La Niña-like MJO Martitime Continent phases. You can see the longer range guidance moving to more a -PNA look later in the month. My guess is that this is related to all the record SST warmth north and east of Australia.

SOI

15 Dec 2018 1012.11 1005.25 16.29 4.29 0.82
14 Dec 2018 1013.05 1005.15 21.69 3.69 0.72
13 Dec 2018 1012.83 1005.20 20.29 2.95 0.59
12 Dec 2018 1011.75 1005.45 13.39 2.36 0.46
11 Dec 2018 1010.69 1006.20 4.00 1.89 0.37

FB4B8A67-5B21-48D2-B84C-EA8B5F0EAD36.thumb.png.ee576aaf55bb25e51cbce8e405985643.pngC3CB2596-18D9-47E0-90CB-C6BC8D5FDF07.thumb.png.e3a16095ebaca0fb252557e0cc9e0fe7.pngB79AEDFB-2953-4A0D-8D42-B0D15E67BEDF.gif.f6b1d36506e3c9cb6f75a986757077b7.gif

 

That +SOI is tipping the scales a bit. Although the El Niño is already in Moderate territory. So eventually the +SOI will be overwhelmed.

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If CFS has its way, 23 of the next 30 days will be AN.

 

JB did a written treatise today and made one 'pat of butter' cover the entire roll.     Like his video salads, it is hard to know what this written 'scrambled eggs' means.    Can't tell if he is introducing escapee clauses to get out of his 3-month promotion of a cold winter.

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I'm sure this will be plastered all over social media soon.  GFS-FV3 also shows significant snows north of 78 (although not insane snows like the NAM). The NAM has been pretty consistent with a significant inland-of-95 snowfall for awhile, so it can't be totally dismissed. GFS/Euro show moderate/significant snow only north of about 84 and the CMC shows little anywhere.  Looks like largely a miss for NYC metro, but interior sections might get some snow...

namconus_asnow_neus_15.png 

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December did deliver already with the advertised great pattern. We just got unlucky. North Carolina saw a historic snowstorm. It takes a great pattern/setup for something like that to happen in December. We just got very unlucky that the confluence was too strong to let it come up the coast. Maybe the last week of the month will deliver for us.

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1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said:

I don’t recall December ever being a snowy month, outside of those rare years when a significant storm occurred

Yeah, 2000-2010 was an amazing run of double-digit December monthly snowfall totals for NYC. Winters have become much more back-loaded since then.

1 2018 T 17
2 2017 7.7 0
3 2016 3.2 0
4 2015 T 0
5 2014 1.0 0
6 2013 8.6 0
7 2012 0.4 0
8 2011 0.0 0
9 2010 20.1 0
10 2009 12.4 0
11 2008 6.0 0
12 2007 2.9 0
13 2006 0.0 0
14 2005 9.7 0
15 2004 3.0 0
16 2003 19.8 0
17 2002 11.0 0
18 2001 T 0
19 2000 13.4 0
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35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, 2000-2010 was an amazing run of double digit December monthly snowfall totals for NYC. Winters have become much more back-loaded since then.

1 2018 T 17
2 2017 7.7 0
3 2016 3.2 0
4 2015 T 0
5 2014 1.0 0
6 2013 8.6 0
7 2012 0.4 0
8 2011 0.0 0
9 2010 20.1 0
10 2009 12.4 0
11 2008 6.0 0
12 2007 2.9 0
13 2006 0.0 0
14 2005 9.7 0
15 2004 3.0 0
16 2003 19.8 0
17 2002 11.0 0
18 2001 T 0
19 2000 13.4 0

I think that my memory may have been skewed-I’m surprised at all of that December snow.  Perhaps most of it melted quickly, in which case they wouldn’t be deemed “memorable”.  Wonder what the December’s of the ‘70’s and ‘80’s had for snow

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4 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Remember when it use to snow in December ?

 

Ehh, not the the first half of December. Mid Jan to mid Feb has always felt like the “meat” of our snow season to me. Even March typically outdoes December in recent years.

You'll get your snow lol.

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