Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

December 2018 General Discussion & Observations


Zelocita Weather
 Share

Recommended Posts

29 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Actually have a slight dusting here. Looks like the day goes in as .1 so far. At least December isn’t totally shut out now.

Yeah, it's been tough to get a shut out in December since 2000. The only years to go 0.0 were 2006 and 2011. We know how those winters went. Even 2015 squeaked out a T-0.1 across the area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i'm wondering if we'll get skunked again

 

Yeah, you can see the NAM cutting back on the northern extent of the heaviest rainfall for  the first wave on Saturday. The northern stream continues to be really impressive. Very unusual to see a +20 SOI spike during an El Niño December.

13 Dec 2018 1012.83 1005.20 20.29 2.95 0.59

12z

namconus_apcpn_neus_20.thumb.png.c573cdc14e2d4357bf75f4f5edce4289.png

0z

namconus_apcpn_neus_24.thumb.png.eb3001d0261e729ae740815d7ac8d458.png

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, you can see the NAM cutting back on the northern extent of the heaviest rainfall for  the first wave on Saturday. The northern stream continues to be really impressive. Very unusual to see a +20 SOI spike during an El Niño December.

13 Dec 2018 1012.83 1005.20 20.29 2.95 0.59

12z

namconus_apcpn_neus_20.thumb.png.c573cdc14e2d4357bf75f4f5edce4289.png

0z

namconus_apcpn_neus_24.thumb.png.eb3001d0261e729ae740815d7ac8d458.png

 

 

18z is south again

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think we have every reason to believe that the 15F Low T and 6.4" of Snow in November, will hold for the rest of December----but not for the winter season.     

They could actually hold up and not set any records however for the season, and that is worrisome.

With the state of the models and expectation of a lot of snow action eventually, a bigger goof than the November one is of high probability.    Like this weekend's rain which could be a 20" mid-winter's storm on one run, then 2", and no Blizzard Warning needed, on another.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

I think we have every reason to believe that the 15F Low T and 6.4" of Snow in November, will hold for the rest of December----but not for the winter season.     

They could actually hold up and not set any records however for the season, and that is worrisome.

With the state of the models and expectation of a lot of snow action eventually, a bigger goof than the November one is of high probability.    Like this weekend's rain which could be a 20" mid-winter's storm on one run, then 2", and no Blixxard Warning needed, on another.

Hmmmm.....elaborate, please?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Long range guidance may even get more erratic if the PNA heads for neutral or negative territory later in the month. Not sure if this a result of the more Niña-like + SOI spike along with the MJO. 

 

It's probably a mis-signal, or a pick of something happen as Stratosphere warming begins (model feedback or something). Look at the PNA region now, Low pressure after low pressure. It's been this way pretty much since July. Subsurface warming around 180W-140W in ENSO correlates to ~Aleutian island negative 500mb at a SD of like +5, ridiculous. That's what's happening now. 

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Long range guidance may even get more erratic if the PNA heads for neutral or negative territory later in the month. Not sure if this a result of the more Niña-like + SOI spike along with the MJO. 

It's very odd indeed. I imagine that the pattern will look more like a Nino as we get into Jan/Feb, the seasonal models certainly show that. 

But for now it's complicated, I wonder how this month will end up temp/Precip wise and if it'll look more like a Nina.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's very odd indeed. I imagine that the pattern will look more like a Nino as we get into Jan/Feb, the seasonal models certainly show that. 

But for now it's complicated, I wonder how this month will end up temp/Precip wise and if it'll look more like a Nina.

The month will end with below normal temp average and above normal precip - the wild card is snowfall as there are signs on a few of the models that the last 10 days of the month could feature frozen precip.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

It's probably a mis-signal, or a pick of something happen as Stratosphere warming begins (model feedback or something). Look at the PNA region now, Low pressure after low pressure. It's been this way pretty much since July. Subsurface warming around 180W-140W in ENSO correlates to ~Aleutian island negative 500mb at a SD of like +5, ridiculous. That's what's happening now. 

I’m almost sure we saw similar things in ensembles a couple of weeks preceding last winter’s warming event that seemed to contradict would should occur and sure enough in the end all the ensembles that indicated mild ended up wrong 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

Hmmmm.....elaborate, please?

Well, the highest low temperature for a whole season is 19, in 2001-02, and we have already beaten that.     The least seasonal snowfall is about 2", and we have already beaten that too.    Some member mentioned that the NAM kept moving the heavy rain to the south.    Now just imagine this was mid-winter.    The system is in the meso-scale time frame and still can not finalize  its output.

BTW:   The EURO WEEKLIES, just out today, show no weekly cold till Jan. 18.     It does not look impressive even then, as North America appears to be burning up for the whole 6 weeks, except the last two along the EC.

 

  • Haha 1
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Well, the highest low temperature for a whole season is 19, in 2001-02, and we have already beaten that.     The least seasonal snowfall is about 2", and we have already beaten that too.    Some member mentioned that the NAM kept moving the heavy rain to the south.    Now just imagine this was mid-winter.    The system is in the meso-scale time frame and still can not finalize  its output.

BTW:   The EURO WEEKLIES, just out today, show no weekly cold till Jan. 18.     It does not look impressive even then, as North America appears to be burning up for the whole 6 weeks, except the last two along the EC.

 

Burning up ? I tend to doubt it...………...

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Well, the highest low temperature for a whole season is 19, in 2001-02, and we have already beaten that.     The least seasonal snowfall is about 2", and we have already beaten that too.    Some member mentioned that the NAM kept moving the heavy rain to the south.    Now just imagine this was mid-winter.    The system is in the meso-scale time frame and still can not finalize  its output.

BTW:   The EURO WEEKLIES, just out today, show no weekly cold till Jan. 18.     It does not look impressive even then, as North America appears to be burning up for the whole 6 weeks, except the last two along the EC.

 

Oh. I see. Supression. Also, the Euro Weeklies may continue to be erratic until the elongated PV is nearly finished stretching from Eurasia to Canada.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

BTW:   The EURO WEEKLIES, just out today, show no weekly cold till Jan. 18.     It does not look impressive even then, as North America appears to be burning up for the whole 6 weeks, except the last two along the EC.

 

That's disappointing, at this point it wouldn't surprise me if all our snows come in a month (Feb this year), that's been the theme lately. 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Well, the highest low temperature for a whole season is 19, in 2001-02, and we have already beaten that.     The least seasonal snowfall is about 2", and we have already beaten that too.    Some member mentioned that the NAM kept moving the heavy rain to the south.    Now just imagine this was mid-winter.    The system is in the meso-scale time frame and still can not finalize  its output.

BTW:   The EURO WEEKLIES, just out today, show no weekly cold till Jan. 18.     It does not look impressive even then, as North America appears to be burning up for the whole 6 weeks, except the last two along the EC.

 

 

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's disappointing, at this point it wouldn't surprise me if all our snows come in a month (Feb this year), that's been the theme lately. 

Why are people even looking at the Weeklies? Last week it was cold, now it shows warmth.

It's garbage

  • Thanks 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

The month will end with below normal temp average and above normal precip - the wild card is snowfall as there are signs on a few of the models that the last 10 days of the month could feature frozen precip.

I don't think that's a certainty yet. This weekend is looking less and less impressive

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Well, the highest low temperature for a whole season is 19, in 2001-02, and we have already beaten that.     The least seasonal snowfall is about 2", and we have already beaten that too.    Some member mentioned that the NAM kept moving the heavy rain to the south.    Now just imagine this was mid-winter.    The system is in the meso-scale time frame and still can not finalize  its output.

BTW:   The EURO WEEKLIES, just out today, show no weekly cold till Jan. 18.     It does not look impressive even then, as North America appears to be burning up for the whole 6 weeks, except the last two along the EC.

 

That’s not what they show.

  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...