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December 2018 General Discussion & Observations


Zelocita Weather
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36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was actually the coldest first 10 days of December in NYC since 2010. Just goes to show the persistence of the colder pattern which began in mid-October. The average temperature from 10-15 to 12-10 was the coldest since 2002 in NYC.

Dec 1-10 NYC average temperature

2018....37.6

2017....43.0

2016....41.4

2015....48.3

2014....40.2

2013....41.9

2012....46.0

2011....46.7

2010....34.6

Coldest 10-15 to 12-10 in NYC since 2000:

#1....44.2....2002

#2....45.0....2018

#3....46.0....2000

It does remind me of 2010 in that we missed out on a few storm threats and then got clocked towards the end of the month, looks like the pattern will become favorable again in that time period.

 

Interesting to see both 2000 and 2010 in your list of years, as they both had end of the month snowstorms and were both la ninas lol.  So maybe this has more to do with the type of blocking we have than it does enso.

Dec 2002 which had the same enso type, but much stronger than this, did not have the blockbuster storm at the end of the month, but we still had a Christmas day into night surprise snow event that peaked over Nassau County after changing over from rain.

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53 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It does remind me of 2010 in that we missed out on a few storm threats and then got clocked towards the end of the month, looks like the pattern will become favorable again in that time period.

 

Interesting to see both 2000 and 2010 in your list of years, as they both had end of the month snowstorms and were both la ninas lol.  So maybe this has more to do with the type of blocking we have than it does enso.

Dec 2002 which had the same enso type, but much stronger than this, did not have the blockbuster storm at the end of the month, but we still had a Christmas day into night surprise snow event that peaked over Nassau County after changing over from rain.

It's interesting that both 2018 and 2002 are in the small group of years that produced a 6" snow in NYC by December 5th.

 

 

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28 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

We also have to watch a possible clipper system for Monday.

It's a bit of a departure for us to have storms that track further south than the 6-10 day forecast. While the weekend storm is rain, it won't be the big cutter that the models were depicting last week. The low may slip underneath instead of tracking to our NW. This could be related to the +SOI type of split flow pattern. This allows a stronger northern stream and the NINO STJ is weaker. Very unusual to have a +SOI weak El Nino continuing into December. 

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29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It's a bit of a departure for us to have storms that track further south than the 6-10 day forecast. While the weekend storm is rain, it won't be the big cutter that the models were depicting last week. The low may slip underneath instead of tracking to our NW. This could be related to the +SOI type of split flow pattern. This allows a stronger northern stream and the NINO STJ is weaker. Very unusual to have a +SOI weak El Nino continuing into December. 

At this point I'll be very happy if it warms up a bit (going through heating oil faster than I'd like for the time of year) but won't mind if the heaviest rain stays somewhere else. We don't need a wet cutter, slipping underneath and pushing some warm air up ahead of it will be great. 

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7 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

At this point I'll be very happy if it warms up a bit (going through heating oil faster than I'd like for the time of year) but won't mind if the heaviest rain stays somewhere else. We don't need a wet cutter, slipping underneath and pushing some warm air up ahead of it will be great. 

It's good for the ski resorts since they won't be getting the big WAA event that the models were showing last week.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This was actually the coldest first 10 days of December in NYC since 2010. Just goes to show the persistence of the colder pattern which began in mid-October. The average temperature from 10-15 to 12-10 was the coldest since 2002 in NYC.

Dec 1-10 NYC average temperature

2018....37.6

2017....43.0

2016....41.4

2015....48.3

2014....40.2

2013....41.9

2012....46.0

2011....46.7

2010....34.6

Coldest 10-15 to 12-10 in NYC since 2000:

#1....44.2....2002

#2....45.0....2018

#3....46.0....2000

One good thing is the we are knocking down water temps. This should help coastal areas moving forward. 

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7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

One good thing is the we are knocking down water temps. This should help coastal areas moving forward. 

I was just thinking that....my first bench mark is for water temps to get below 50 before the start of December, which has already happened, now I'd like them to be below 40 by the end of December ;-)

 

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31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I was just thinking that....my first bench mark is for water temps to get below 50 before the start of December, which has already happened, now I'd like them to be below 40 by the end of December ;-)

 

Once we get into the 30s it’s really game time for the coast. 

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3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

You know what's funny

Majority of the winter forecasts back in October had this month being a snoozer for the northeast. A lot of them changed their forecasts in November and thought this month was going to be great .

Maybe the original forecasts were right

happens all the time in short-term and long-term forecasting.

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45 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

You know what's funny

Majority of the winter forecasts back in October had this month being a snoozer for the northeast. A lot of them changed their forecasts in November and thought this month was going to be great .

Maybe the original forecasts were right

Yeah, I've been chuckling at that over the past few weeks too.

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12 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Forecast for NYC was not even an inch of snow after the changeover

The changeover on Christmas day started earlier and I received 5 inches of wind driven snow. I remember my family couldn't believe it.

I quickly put up TWC and Paul Kocin was talking about the storm

although that storm did produce in the end it was depressing to see it raining hard Christmas morning...

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2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

You know what's funny

Majority of the winter forecasts back in October had this month being a snoozer for the northeast. A lot of them changed their forecasts in November and thought this month was going to be great .

Maybe the original forecasts were right

Most of the El Niño Decembers suck.  2002 and 2009 were both close to being fairly meh months snow wise but we got two huge breaks late which allowed the 12/25 and 12/19 events to happen.  A 50 mile wide CCB hit the metro and a massive blocking PV in canada split allowing the storm to come north  

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5 hours ago, Snow88 said:

You know what's funny

Majority of the winter forecasts back in October had this month being a snoozer for the northeast. A lot of them changed their forecasts in November and thought this month was going to be great .

Maybe the original forecasts were right

It's been a historic December, the storm just hit NC and VA instead of the northeast 

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6 hours ago, uncle W said:

although that storm did produce in the end it was depressing to see it raining hard Christmas morning...

That was one of my 3 most memorable Christmas days for extreme weather. Heavy thunderstorm late in the morning transitioning to heavy snow around 5pm. The subzero Arctic outbreak in 1980 was another. Record warmth in 2015 rounds out the list. About the only events we haven't had yet are a winter severe outbreak and a major ice storm

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31 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s so incredibly untrue. Water temp plays a big role in early season events. December 05 and October 11 are great examples 

I lived right on the water most of my life, wind direction is what it comes down to.  A costal front and water temperature are two different things.  Water in the 50s is not an issue with the correct wind

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