495weatherguy Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 33 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Good luck with that lol I recognize it’s nothing more than a pipe dream, just wishing for warmer weather. Too early to be this cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 10 hours ago, North and West said: Never seems to happen though, you know? Had some mood flakes last Christmas Eve, which was nice. Last year was a white xmas for westchester and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 18z GEFS actually suggests a favorable pattern manifests itself for us at the end of next week (22nd), well before Christmas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Models have some light snow possible for Thursday night 56 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: I recognize it’s nothing more than a pipe dream, just wishing for warmer weather. Too early to be this cold Too early? It's December 4 minutes ago, Hailstorm said: 18z GEFS actually suggests a favorable pattern manifests itself for us at the end of next week (22nd), well before Christmas. Everything is pointing to a colder and possibly stormier last week of the month. Maybe a white Christmas? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Models have some light snow possible for Thursday night Too early? It's December Everything is pointing to a colder and possibly stormier last week of the month. Maybe a white Christmas? I think chances are somewhat higher than normal for a white Christmas this year. Look at how the 18z GFS changed from its 12z run. It now shows extensive cross-polar flow for the northern half of the USA, with a humongous -EPO, -AO and east-based NAO. Ideally, we would want a bit of a less suppressed look than what is shown in the image below; however, it will inevitably change as we get closer in time. New run: Old run: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 For some reason, the best chance for measurable snow and heavy snow in NYC from Christmas Eve to New Year's Eve is on 12-26. Date......# years measurable snow.....greatest snowfall 12-24.....................16..............................11.4.....1912 12-25.....................17................................7.0.....1909 12-26.....................22..............................26.1.....1947.....18.0.....1872.....12.2.....2010....11.2......1933 12-27.....................19.................................7.8....2010 12-28.....................12.................................6.6....1990 12-29.....................19.................................4.0....1880 12-30.....................12................................12.0....2000 12-31.....................16..................................4.0....1948 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It was just really weird having that kind of warmth with such short days and a low sun angle. It wasn't weird, it was horrible. Like something out of your worst nightmare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 34 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Models have some light snow possible for Thursday night Too early? It's December Everything is pointing to a colder and possibly stormier last week of the month. Maybe a white Christmas? Yes. Too early. This weather is more like mid January weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 I hate to be a party poopers, but if the snow and rain, if any, could hold off on Christmas Eve, that'd be great. I'm not looking forward to an already miserable 18 hour drive to Southwest Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 4 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Lol that month was a dream for me, and probably @Cfa too. meh...it was still cold enough that you could not go swimming unless you are a member of the polar Bears... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Gfs and para gfs look good in the 300+ hours lol by Christmas Eve we might get some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: It wasn't weird, it was horrible. Like something out of your worst nightmare. Agreed, that was the ultimate disaster for anyone that likes skiing or riding. A cold and dry pattern isn’t much fun either, especially for me as I work outside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 54 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Yes. Too early. This weather is more like mid January weather. Considering high thirties to low forties in NYC, your absolutely right. A match for a mid January thaw. As always.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 I could only find five years since 1912 that had snow falling at midnight Christmas eve and one year it ended just before midnight... 1919...snow falls from 10am 12/24 to 2am 12/25...2.8" fell... 1961...snow ends just before midnight...6" fell... 1966...snow falls from 7am 12/24 to 6am 12/25...7" fell... 1993...light snow falls from 10pm to 2am... 2002...light snow from 11:30pm to 2am changing to a mix and rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 18 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Nov 1989 and Nov 2012 were both great on Long Island and in Central NJ. Double digit snowfall totals from each storm in November and Nov 89 actually occurred the night before Thanksgiving! Both were meh here, other than the timing. 3-5 deals, but in the 80's any measurable snow was welcome. Something about my area, we often miss the big totals. Not always, but often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 13 hours ago, North and West said: What gets me is the bonkers headline (could be clickbait, who knows) that millennials don't own can openers. C'mon, really? A lot of people don't anymore, at least not electric ones. I brought one home last year and no one else, even the adults ( from another country ) could operate it. We'd had hand ones for 25 years here, but I grew up with electric ones. My son the millenial ( if he is a millenial ) is the only one who uses it with ease, ironically. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 1 hour ago, uncle W said: meh...it was still cold enough that you could not go swimming unless you are a member of the polar Bears... Even the fish don't hang around in the cold water Unc, ya gotta go further and further as we get into Dec. The great winter fisheries we had locally 40 years ago for whiting and mackerel and cod are long past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 1 hour ago, CarLover014 said: I hate to be a party poopers, but if the snow and rain, if any, could hold off on Christmas Eve, that'd be great. I'm not looking forward to an already miserable 18 hour drive to Southwest Florida. There is no other kind of drive to FL, hombre....anytime I have to go their it's miserable. Can't stand the place. Get sick from something every time I am forced to spend time there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 30 minutes ago, uncle W said: 1966...snow falls from 7am 12/24 to 6am 12/25...7" fell... ... This 12.24.66- 12.25.66 snowstorm is my earliest recollection of snow as an 8 YO kid. I knew the day before it was going to snow, I was up very early that Sat morn to watch the first flakes fall. Watching all those apartment bldg courtyards get snow covered was quite a treat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALEXA Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 1 minute ago, sferic said: This 12.24.66- 12.25.66 snowstorm is my earliest recollection of snow as an 8 YO kid. I knew the day before it was going to snow, I was up very early that Sat morn to watch the first flakes fall. Watching all those apartment bldg courtyards get snow covered was quite a treat. I was 17 in 1966 and it was a very good year...now I'm in the Autumn of the year...Frank Sinatra from 1966...that storm changed to sleet in the afternoon that kept accumulations down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, uncle W said: I was 17 in 1966 and it was a very good year...now I'm in the Autumn of the year...Frank Sinatra from 1966...that storm changed to sleet in the afternoon that kept accumulations down... That storm intrigued me, is there an accumulations map for that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 27 minutes ago, sferic said: That storm intrigued me, is there an accumulations map for that storm? go here... https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, uncle W said: go here... https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis Got it ! Thanks so much ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 2 hours ago, uncle W said: 2002...light snow from 11:30pm to 2am changing to a mix and rain... Forecast for NYC was not even an inch of snow after the changeover The changeover on Christmas day started earlier and I received 5 inches of wind driven snow. I remember my family couldn't believe it. I quickly put up TWC and Paul Kocin was talking about the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 1 hour ago, uncle W said: I was 17 in 1966 and it was a very good year...now I'm in the Autumn of the year...Frank Sinatra from 1966...that storm changed to sleet in the afternoon that kept accumulations down... I was 19, in my second year of college. I remember riding with my dad in his 61 Chrysler Newport. Handled pretty well in the snow. At least, Unc, thanks to Frank, we can think of our lives as vintage wine from fine old kegs, from the brim to the dregs we pour sweet and clear, it was a very good year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 2 hours ago, ALEXA said: weeklies? Not great. A sustained trough does not build into the East until after 1/15. But a lot of caution is required due to the moderate stratospheric warming that is imminent, Pacific SSTAs, and disagreements with some of the other guidance toward the end of December. Given those factors, I don’t give much weight to this run in the extended range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 8 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Lol that month was a dream for me, and probably @Cfa too. It was scarily close to ideal for me, I never thought I’d experience that here. It could’ve been a little sunnier but beggars can’t be choosers lol. That December’s legendary warmth was a direct answer to February’s (nightmarish) extreme cold. As extreme as the 2010’s have been, Feb 15 (-12) and Dec 15 (+13) stand out as exceptional to me, that range of temperature departures in a single year has to be some sort of record. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 42degs., or about 5degs. AN. EPS has had an empty 10-day Snow outlook for a whole week now. The GEFS is 50/50 on at least 3" through Boxing Day. For the record, the RRWT is 6degs. BN for the next 30-day period. We can hope. Short warmup only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 This was actually the coldest first 10 days of December in NYC since 2010. Just goes to show the persistence of the colder pattern which began in mid-October. The average temperature from 10-15 to 12-10 was the coldest since 2002 in NYC. Dec 1-10 NYC average temperature 2018....37.6 2017....43.0 2016....41.4 2015....48.3 2014....40.2 2013....41.9 2012....46.0 2011....46.7 2010....34.6 Coldest 10-15 to 12-10 in NYC since 2000: #1....44.2....2002 #2....45.0....2018 #3....46.0....2000 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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