December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

[TJW014]

Looks like NYC might get some snow from the inverted trough.

 

 

[RU848789]

43 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

We had one in March 2014 in M/C.  We got 6.

I assume M/C is Monmouth County (and not Middlesex).  Are you talking about 3/25/14?  I recall getting a dusting, after much more was forecast a few days before, but the coastal largely missed everyone except LI; however, yeah, I recall that being an inverted trough feature for the Shore where folks got 3-6".  

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/43307-325-326-flizzardsnow-observation-threads/?do=findComment&comment=2908590

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

I assume M/C is Monmouth County (and not Middlesex).  Are you talking about 3/25/14?  I recall getting a dusting, after much more was forecast a few days before, but the coastal largely missed everyone except LI; however, yeah, I recall that being an inverted trough feature for the Shore where folks got 3-6".  

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/43307-325-326-flizzardsnow-observation-threads/?do=findComment&comment=2908590

 

Yes , Monmouth County. 6 fell in Colts Neck.  I think someone picks up 6 down in SNJ today. 

[Gravity Wave]

1 hour ago, mikem81 said:

CMC very close for Monday storm

I remember the December 19-20 2009 storm, every model was consistently suppressing it up. DC was on the fringe and no one north of there was going to see anything significant. This was after 3 straight garbage winters for the MA so hope was low to begin with. Then the 18z NAM on the 17th showed a full fledged I-95 blizzard (it ended up being too generous with the northern extent of the heavy snow, much to my disappointment in Allentown) and every other model flipped on their next runs. It's up there with BDB as the most remarkable short term shift I've experienced for a major winter storm.

To be clear, I was too young to understand the 500mb setup for that storm and I'm not making any predictions.

[Snowfreak09]

1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

Yes , Monmouth County. 6 fell in Colts Neck.  I think someone picks up 6 down in SNJ today. 

What is your opinion for next weeks storm ?

[RU848789]

10 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

Yes , Monmouth County. 6 fell in Colts Neck.  I think someone picks up 6 down in SNJ today. 

A guy 5 miles inland from AC has 2-3" already.  Snow blossoming into Camden/Gloucester and even Philly now.  Looks like central/northern Ocean might miss out though.  Fickle.  

[SnowGoose69]

21 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

I remember the December 19-20 2009 storm, every model was consistently suppressing it up. DC was on the fringe and no one north of there was going to see anything significant. This was after 3 straight garbage winters for the MA so hope was low to begin with. Then the 18z NAM on the 17th showed a full fledged I-95 blizzard (it ended up being too generous with the northern extent of the heavy snow, much to my disappointment in Allentown) and every other model flipped on their next runs. It's up there with BDB as the most remarkable short term shift I've experienced for a major winter storm.

To be clear, I was too young to understand the 500mb setup for that storm and I'm not making any predictions.

I was fairly confident that one was coming north because at day 3-4 the only thing really preventing it from coming north was a bow tie shaped vort in Quebec.  The vort on most runs had a weakness in the center with two strong lobes on the east and west end and it was inevitable that the vort would probably split enabling the storm to come north.  I believe it was the 18Z run on the 16th that showed that but it wasn’t til the 12Z Euro on the 17th that we saw another model show it and the 18Z runs that day all showed a big storm 

[Gravity Wave]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I was fairly confident that one was coming north because at day 3-4 the only thing really preventing it from coming north was a bow tie shaped vort in Quebec.  The vort on most runs had a weakness in the center with two strong lobes on the east and west end and it was inevitable that the vort would probably split enabling the storm to come north.  I believe it was the 18Z run on the 16th that showed that but it wasn’t til the 12Z Euro on the 17th that we saw another model show it and the 18Z runs that day all showed a big storm 

Got it, I figured my memory was a bit foggy. No one on the forums I read then focused much on the vort or the 500mb maps in general, which is pretty funny in retrospect.

[TJW014]

Just started snowing here in Toms River

[RU848789]

NWS upgraded to a warning for Atlantic County for 3-6" of snow and expanded the advisories for 1-3" of snow to Camden and Gloucester, as well as Salem, Cumberland and Cape May counties, but noted that the southern portions of these last 3 counties might not get much snow.  I grew up in Washington Twp (Gloucester) so it's always fun to see what's going on there - looks like some decent snow.  Anyone from around there? 

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter weather advisory

[bluewave]

12z Euro continuing with one of the strongest early December CAD events for the interior SE/MA with the storm system Sat-Tue. Just goes to show what can happen with a near record breaking 200kt  jet forced south across our area.

New record for OKX if the 200kt jet streak  verifies this strong.

 

[North and West]

44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

12z Euro continuing with one of the strongest early December CAD events for the interior SE/MA with the storm system Sat-Tue. Just goes to show what can happen with a near record breaking 200kt  jet forced south across our area.

New record for OKX if the 200kt jet streak  verifies this strong.

 

What does this mean for the layman? I always enjoy reading your posts, so forgive my lack of expertise.

 

[Brasiluvsnow]

Just now, North and West said:

What does this mean for the layman? I always enjoy reading your posts, so forgive my lack of expertise.

 

it means what is happening in South Jersey by AC right now could happen again on Saturday but farther North closer to nyc

 

[RU848789]

Just now, North and West said:

What does this mean for the layman? I always enjoy reading your posts, so forgive my lack of expertise.

 

Suppression...and then depression, lol.

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, North and West said:

What does this mean for the layman? I always enjoy reading your posts, so forgive my lack of expertise.

 

It's an anomalous set up with the frozen precip getting forced so far to the south in early December. Probably have to wait until we get within the NAM's range for the interior SE/MA break down on snow,sleet, and freezing rain amounts. 

[North and West]

Just now, bluewave said:

It's a very anomalous set up with the frozen precip getting forced so far to the south in early December. Probably have to wait until we get within the NAM's range for the interior SE/MA break down on snow/sleet/ and freezing rain amounts. 

Thanks. tl;dr: don't mention anything to my kids about any potential snow.

[qg_omega]

37 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

it means what is happening in South Jersey by AC right now could happen again on Saturday but farther North closer to nyc

 

Huh, doesn't mean that at all.  Means the mountains of North Carolina and Virginia look good for a historic snow storm 

[donsutherland1]

000
NOUS41 KPHI 051925
PNSPHI
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-
070-071-101>106-060725-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
225 PM EST Wed Dec 5 2018

...SNOWFALL REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Lat/Lon

...New Jersey...

...Atlantic County...
6 SE Mays Landing            3.0 in    0126 PM 12/05   39.39N/74.64W
Atlantic City                2.8 in    0115 PM 12/05   39.37N/74.42W
Absecon                      2.2 in    0100 PM 12/05   39.43N/74.51W
3 N Absecon                  2.0 in    1230 PM 12/05   39.47N/74.51W
Mays Landing                 2.0 in    1242 PM 12/05   39.45N/74.73W
2 N Absecon                  1.5 in    0150 PM 12/05   39.47N/74.51W
3 SSW Absecon                1.5 in    0123 PM 12/05   39.39N/74.52W
Hammonton                    1.4 in    0100 PM 12/05   39.63N/74.80W
Egg Harbor City              1.3 in    1245 PM 12/05   39.53N/74.65W

...Burlington County...
Tabernacle                   0.5 in    0130 PM 12/05   39.84N/74.71W

...Camden County...
3 NE Lindenwold               T in     0120 PM 12/05   39.84N/74.92W

...Cumberland County...
Vineland                     2.0 in    0155 PM 12/05   39.49N/75.03W

...Gloucester County...
4 N Vineland                 3.0 in    0114 PM 12/05   39.55N/75.02W
2 SSW Sicklerville           0.3 in    1222 PM 12/05   39.69N/74.99W

...Ocean County...
4 SW Waretown                 T in     0121 PM 12/05   39.76N/74.25W

...Pennsylvania...

...Philadelphia County...
Philadelphia International    T in     0100 PM 12/05   39.87N/75.25W
Rockledge SE                  T in     0700 AM 12/05   40.07N/75.07W
&&

[Brasiluvsnow]

54 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Huh, doesn't mean that at all.  Means the mountains of North Carolina and Virginia look good for a historic snow storm 

Well I stand corrected,,,,at least I wrote it in layman terms lol

[MJO812]

Mt Holly says don't give up just yet

"The 12z ECMWF
and GFS keep this system well to the south of the region as it
progresses off the coast Sunday night. To be blunt, I am not buying
what the models are selling, though I do think the sharp gradient in
precipitation on the north side makes physical sense (given the
strength of the surface high to its north). A perusal of ensemble
guidance suggests the trend has been for a slower exit stage east of
the southern-stream system, and there are indications that the
interaction with the upstream northern perturbation somewhere in the
vicinity of the northern plains late this weekend could act to (1)
force the southern-stream system farther north with time (as models
tend to struggle mightily with at this time range) and (2) act to
develop a secondary low somewhere upstream (west) of the southern-
stream low. According to the 12z ECMWF, this second low is prevented
from moving northward by a digging shortwave in eastern Canada early
next week. However, the GFS is much faster with this trough,
suggesting that timing uncertainty is very large with this important
feature.
With so many perturbations and complex interactions at play and
large run-to-run variability, I tend to resort to systematic biases
of each model as a starting point. At this time range, models often
are too aggressive with the northern-stream kicking the southern-
stream system offshore before the inevitable northwest-trending
tracks within 48 to 72 hours of the event. The 12z CMC is worthy of
noting its farther northwest track and has been fairly consistent
with this. Given all of the above, it is premature to trim PoPs in
our area Sunday afternoon through Monday night. In fact, I spread
PoPs northward to account for what I suspect are model biases
exhibiting their usual selves. Given the trend this cool season so
far, broad-brushing the timing and expanding PoPs well northward of
medium-range consensus seems to me the wise choice at this juncture."

[TJW014]

Brigantine, NJ had reports of 7.5" of snow today

[CIK62]

For some reason the 18Z GFS got hung up around hour 114 on PIVOTAL WEATHER, TROPICAL TIDBITS and TWISTER sites, but ran properly on the government website.    

Did anyone else notice this?    Hate to have to rely on the crappy government graphics.    It seemed little changed anyway.

[Dan76]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

For some reason the 18Z GFS got hung up around hour 114 on PIVOTAL WEATHER, TROPICAL TIDBITS and TWISTER sites, but ran properly on the government website.    

Did anyone else notice this?    Hate to have to rely on the crappy government graphics.    It seemed little changed anyway.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018120518&fh=240

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, CarLover014 said:

Brigantine, NJ had reports of 7.5" of snow today

Hope this isn't setting up to be another 09-10 type winter. That was a bit of a bummer for my area ( though we still had a few nice storms, nothing huge though)

[Brian5671]

20 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Hope this isn't setting up to be another 09-10 type winter. That was a bit of a bummer for my area ( though we still had a few nice storms, nothing huge though)

that was a moderate nino with crazy -NAO and -AO.  Very rare.

[MJO812]

I can't believe a storm is being squashed in early December

SMH

[Mitchel Volk]

Just look at Dec 1989

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, Mitchel Volk said:

Just look at Dec 1989

Never

[MJO812]

What happened? I was only 1 year old.

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

What happened? I was only 1 year old.

https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Dec231989EventReview

https://www.weather.gov/ilm/ChristmasSnow1989