SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: People seriously giving up a week out? Jeez The teleconnections certainly wouldn't favor suppression, I wouldn't be surprised to see models trend north as we get closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 44 minutes ago, doncat said: I had 73.55" in 2011...In one 30 day period from approx 8/5- 9/5 , I measured over 25". Don't think I'll ever see so much rain in that period of time again. That was an amazing period for torrential rainfall in our area. It was the only time that I got to experience 10" of rain in under 12 hrs. Just about everyone in Long beach with a basement had flooding the morning of August 14th. There was a spotter about a mile or two to my east in Lido that recorded the heaviest total in the area. ...NASSAU COUNTY... LIDO BEACH 10.20 1230 PM 8/14 SKYWARN SPOTTER MASSAPEQUA PARK 8.17 1230 PM 8/14 SKYWARN SPOTTER BELLMORE 8.04 1200 PM 8/14 SKYWARN SPOTTER RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 234 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2011 ...ALL TIME RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT KENNEDY NY... A NEW ALL TIME DAILY RECORD RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 7.80 INCHES WAS SET AT KENNEDY NY YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 6.27 INCHES SET ON JUNE 30 1984. THIS ALSO BREAKS THE DAILY RECORD FOR AUGUST 14 OF 0.96 INCHES SET IN 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 49 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said: Don where can I see the gfs para 18z because tt is not loading? I see on tropical tidbits 18z is out to 24hrs currently...probably some type of glitch. Most likely similar elsewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 18z eps has some members closer to the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 18z eps has some members closer to the coast. Can we see the mean Anthony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 subtle signals for the metro to fringe into a solid 2-4 / 3-5 storm next Tuesday IMHO we love the ESRL ENS maps--- they almost always bring the goods we stay on it https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ens.html#us run thru the loops from the link above 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 34 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The teleconnections certainly wouldn't favor suppression, I wouldn't be surprised to see models trend north as we get closer. It may trend north, I can see it getting far enough to slam DC, but we need the confluence to be timed differently for a significant hit up here. It'll get up to a certain point and just get squashed east by that confluence. Some models have a reinforcing shot of it right as the storm is winding up on the SC coast. We need that upper low over the Maritimes to weaken so the moist flow can make it further north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Every winter same thing. Suppressed to the south now, then soon we will be worrying that it will pass way north of us. I say lock it in - 10" from Richmond to NYC. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Yes some of them moved north, but plenty have also stayed to the south. Each storm is different so will keep following this with everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Toekneeweather said: Negative. The high pressure to the north is weaker on nam. Confluence could end up being weaker. The high pressure on nam is concentrated around Idaho instead of Iowa on the gfs. Definitely a better look Ugh. This is pointless to go back and fourth on but theres a 1040mb high in southern Iowa on that map you posted. It just isn't labeled because the Idahoan high is considerably higher. Just look at the isobars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Yes some of them moved north, but plenty have also stayed to the south. Each storm is different so will keep following this with everyone. I’m invested until Thursday 12z runs if nothing seems changed by then than I’m going to take a step back and look at it from the sidelines until than I will look at every run there is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Ugh. This is pointless to go back and fourth on but theres a 1040mb high in southern Iowa on that map you posted. It just isn't labeled because the Idahoan high is considerably higher. Just look at the isobars. I hate to bicker but you are right. The last storm was a fluke. Not every storm will trend in a way that NYC cashes in. Sometimes you just have to look at the current setup. It doesn't favor a northern track. It could happen. But it's not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 you would have to go over every rain and snowfall for 1983 to get an idea when the NYC gauge went faulty...Summertime showers can be spotty and not used... but general rainfalls should be compared to other sights... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Nam looks perfect usually whenever Amarillo Texas gets a really bad snowstorm we get hit too. And there could be some nasty tornadoes in the most eastern Texas and all of Louisiana. Definitely a strong storm this will break records somewhere in the south and if it comes north all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 17 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said: Nam looks perfect usually whenever Amarillo Texas gets a really bad snowstorm we get hit too. And there could be some nasty tornadoes in the most eastern Texas and all of Louisiana. Definitely a strong storm this will break records somewhere in the south and if it comes north all bets are off. Oh look that 1040+ high again. There's no mechanism to bring this up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: People seriously giving up a week out? Jeez The pattern shifted unfavorably. Not giving up but we need a lot to change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I do agree that the Monday-Tuesday storm is our best chance if the trough behind the storm can dig enough and pull some of it back Northwest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Hey what do u guys think of the nam 0z run I know it’s far but cmc first signaled January 23 2016 snowstorm and nam had it on radar since 84hrs ... than cmc brought it back dumb late but the point is Nam’s the furthest north and at 84hrs it looks like the cmc few nights ago when it was at 180 away. End result of cmc that run looks horrible for us but remember back in 2016 a few days before January 23 blizzard, the cmc also had a perfect positioned low with a great track but mostly rain But it we all know what happened that week Lets not forget nam nailed January 4th 2018 snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said: Hey what do u guys think of the nam 0z run I know it’s far but cmc first signaled January 23 2016 snowstorm and nam had it on radar since 84hrs ... than cmc brought it back dumb late but the point is Nam’s the furthest north and at 84hrs it looks like the cmc few nights ago when it was at 180 away. End result of cmc that run looks horrible for us but remember back in 2016 a few days before January 23 blizzard, the cmc also had a perfect positioned low with a great track but mostly rain But it we all know what happened that week Lets not forget nam nailed January 4th 2018 snowstorm Give it a break for now. For your own good. If you're bored and want a best case scenario look up dec 09. That GEM run(last night) has a similar 500 mb evolution. This is going to slide south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said: Hey what do u guys think of the nam 0z run I know it’s far but cmc first signaled January 23 2016 snowstorm and nam had it on radar since 84hrs ... than cmc brought it back dumb late but the point is Nam’s the furthest north and at 84hrs it looks like the cmc few nights ago when it was at 180 away. End result of cmc that run looks horrible for us but remember back in 2016 a few days before January 23 blizzard, the cmc also had a perfect positioned low with a great track but mostly rain But it we all know what happened that week Lets not forget nam nailed January 4th 2018 snowstorm Cmon feen you know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, NycStormChaser said: Cmon feen you know better. Ok good night I’ll take a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 15 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said: Ok good night I’ll take a break This probably isn’t our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Huge difference h5 between 18z and 0z. Really tried to come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Huge difference h5 between 18z and 0z. Really tried to come up the coast. Much further north than the 18z run with the confluence further north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I think this is coming north, there's no blocking in place to hold it south. Models likely undermodeling the northern stream as well. The Gfs at day 5 is in a great spot this far out, I wouldn't want a bullseye right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 It could be worse. But congrats Roanoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Looks like central Jersey might get a few inches tomorrow from a norlun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Huge inverted trough signal for C/S NJ, RGEM/NAM/GFS all show potential with amounts as high as 6"+. That should be interesting to see unfold, Norluns typically end up further north than forecast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Huge inverted trough signal for C/S NJ, RGEM/NAM/GFS all show potential with amounts as high as 6"+. That should be interesting to see unfold, Norluns typically end up further north than forecast. Yeah. Seems like you can't tell where a Norlun will setup until the day of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 can you dig it baby ???? that be a 988mb thing of beauty from the euro late nite eye candy hang in an hold on !!! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2018120500&fh=144 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now