donsutherland1 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I disagree There are a few members who are more northwest than the op and the mean had a nw lean to it. Now we are back to a week to follow this storm. We are no where done here. I added the caveat that there is still latitude for changes. But, at least from the 500 mb pattern, the window is beginning to shrink. The GGEM's move toward the broader model consensus at 500 mb may be a signal of that shrinking opportunity. We'll see what the 0z runs show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 32 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah. Pretty remarkable how long guidance has honed in on a historic NC/VA blockbuster. For whatever reason during El Niño winters there tends to be less variation in model solutions inside 7 days. I’ve never completely understood why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: For whatever reason during El Niño winters there tends to be less variation in model solutions inside 7 days. I’ve never completely understood why Very interesting. I'll have to remember this for future tracking this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 For whatever reason it seems that in recent memory there have been numerous occasions where longer range modeling has a low escaping south and east, starts to show a second double barrel type situation with a second low closer the coast and slowly evolves as the event moves closer to one more consolidated low closer into the coast. We’ve seen the modeled southern slider, we are now seeing some guidance show the second double barrel scraping the coast on the tail end, will we move to one consolidated low further NW in the coming days? May not seem likely, but how many times have we said that and that the S and E guidance was very consistent 5 or 6 days out only to eventually tuck it in closer within 72 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 hours ago, mikem81 said: GFS para is a coastal scraper. Wonder if models are chasing convection and taking the SLP too far east. It has happened in the past with storms that surprised in the last few days and came well NW of initial modeling You're not getting height rises out ahead of the system with the NW flow over New England. This is not a chasing the convection type of situation. Our best hope is that the models are overdoing the confluence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 This one is cooked. Have stayed away from the models the last few days to see if anything has changed rather than analyzing each run to run difference but the reality is that not much has changed. The Northern stream continues to squash heights off the East coast and you end up with a positively tilted trough with a system that heads offshore well South of the area. If models were somehow too strong with that Northern piece or if that really sped up somehow then heights might have time to trend higher over the next few days (not impossible, but unlikely). Of course with the more amplified system and lack of blocking you're going to get flooded with warm air on the Southwest flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This one is cooked. Have stayed away from the models the last few days to see if anything has changed rather than analyzing each run to run difference but the reality is that not much has changed. The Northern stream continues to squash heights off the East coast and you end up with a positively tilted trough with a system that heads offshore well South of the area. If models were somehow too strong with that Northern piece or if that really sped up somehow then heights might have time to trend higher over the next few days (not impossible, but unlikely). Of course with the more amplified system and lack of blocking you're going to get flooded with warm air on the Southwest flow. Agreed. This isn't coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Not to jump on this even more, but unless the confluence over New England and dry flow from the northern stream eases, I'm not interested in this north of the M/D line and maybe not even DC. That push of confluence in the northern stream when the storm is developing is horribly timed for an impact up here. It'll just string the storm out and force it east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The upcoming storm will provide snow for those that live between South Carolina and Pennslyvania. Although after that's over, a slow thaw and then DC to NYC needs to gear up for the possible snowstorm by Christmas Eve. The teleconnections show promise, based on extrapolation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 7 hours ago, bluewave said: The highest total that I could find for the 5 boroughs Of NYC in 1983 was 65.00 at AVE V in Brooklyn. https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ Time Series Summary for NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN, NY - Jan through Dec 1 1983 65.00 0 My station had 63.11" in 1983. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 23 minutes ago, doncat said: My station had 63.11" in 1983. It looks like the 59-65" range was typical around NYC in 1983. EWR...65.50" LGA....60.84" JFK.....59.12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 A wise man once said the models are " tools" and what they showed yesterday or today especially with 6 or 7 days to go means zilch especially when the " tools " are not consistent. If the models are showing the same setup as they are right now come Saturday or Sunday I would lean on them more. With a week to go this is far from dead in the water lets see how it plays out. I mean what if the timing is off or the trough digs deeper ? Lots of what ifs left = There is much of this science that I still do not understand but I do understand with a week to go this is far from a done deal as I am positive that what the models are showing right now is NOT what is going to take place next Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 hour ago, NycStormChaser said: Agreed. This isn't coming north. 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: This one is cooked. Have stayed away from the models the last few days to see if anything has changed rather than analyzing each run to run difference but the reality is that not much has changed. The Northern stream continues to squash heights off the East coast and you end up with a positively tilted trough with a system that heads offshore well South of the area. If models were somehow too strong with that Northern piece or if that really sped up somehow then heights might have time to trend higher over the next few days (not impossible, but unlikely). Of course with the more amplified system and lack of blocking you're going to get flooded with warm air on the Southwest flow. People seriously giving up a week out? Jeez 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 8 hours ago, uncle W said: I met my wife in 1983 and our first date was in late August...There was a thunder storm that set a record rainfall for the date...In July Diana Ross got drenched in Central Park during a heavy thunder storm... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXWDwVY-270 that was one of our hottest summers on record also, crazy to have it that hot and that wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 8 hours ago, bluewave said: The highest total that I could find for the 5 boroughs Of NYC in 1983 was 65.00 at AVE V in Brooklyn. https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ Time Series Summary for NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN, NY - Jan through Dec 1 1983 65.00 0 With rainfall we always seem to have a lot of variability. I think Westchester was up in the mid 70s range, where was Newark at? JFK has never had a year with more than 60" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: I was thinking mid-70s. The NCDC has access to a lot of additional data and the ability to examine the suspect rain gauge. In the end, it appears that the final 1983 figure was retained. Don, I think also psychologically, 80" just seems like a much larger figure than 72" even though there's only a 10% difference. Either way, I would be willing to bet that in our new climate regime we will surpass 80" of annual rainfall sometime within the next 20-30 years or so. I'd give it to 2050 at the latest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: With rainfall we always seem to have a lot of variability. I think Westchester was up in the mid 70s range, where was Newark at? JFK has never had a year with more than 60" of rain. It looks like the 59-65" range was typical around NYC in 1983. EWR...65.50" LGA....60.84" JFK.....59.12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, bluewave said: It looks like the 59-65" range was typical around NYC in 1983. EWR...65.50" LGA....60.84" JFK.....59.12" Based on that 2011 should be slightly more, thanks Chris, what were the numbers for the surrounding stations in 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Nam 18z is much more north than any other model at 84 hrs. Remember nam caught January 4th 2018 and January 23rd 2016 snowstorms before any other model. Let’s see how tonight’s runs go. This is definitely not over my any means! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Based on that 2011 should be slightly more, thanks Chris, what were the numbers for the surrounding stations in 2011? 2011 was #1 at LGA and EWR. It could also be the actual wettest in NYC with the 1983 number in doubt. EWR...#1...69.91 LGA....#1...65.34 NYC...........72.81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: 2011 was #1 at LGA and EWR. It could also be the actual wettest in NYC with the 1983 number in doubt. EWR...#1...69.91 LGA....#1...65.34 NYC...........72.81 And for JFK it's close to a tie for the top spot isn't it, between 1983 and 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: 2011 was #1 at LGA and EWR. It could also be the actual wettest in NYC with the 1983 number in doubt. EWR...#1...69.91 LGA....#1...65.34 NYC...........72.81 I had 73.55" in 2011...In one 30 day period from approx 8/5- 9/5 , I measured over 25". Don't think I'll ever see so much rain in that period of time again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 What did gfs para 18z run do cause I can’t seem to load it on tt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 38 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said: Nam 18z is much more north than any other model at 84 hrs. Remember nam caught January 4th 2018 and January 23rd 2016 snowstorms before any other model. Let’s see how tonight’s runs go. This is definitely not over my any means! They are nearly identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: They are nearly identical. Negative. The high pressure to the north is weaker on nam. Confluence could end up being weaker. The high pressure on nam is concentrated around Idaho instead of Iowa on the gfs. Definitely a better look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, doncat said: I had 73.55" in 2011...In one 30 day period from approx 8/5- 9/5 , I measured over 25". Don't think I'll ever see so much rain in that period of time again. I bet you'll get 80"+ rainfall in a year and 30"+ in 30 days sometime within the next 20-30 years lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I bet you'll get 80"+ rainfall in a year and 30"+ in 30 days sometime within the next 20-30 years lol. I can't believe that in 30 years, I'll be 88, god willing lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, doncat said: I can't believe that in 30 years, I'll be 88, god willing lol. Don where can I see the gfs para 18z because tt is not loading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T Gambatese Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Hi guys new to this site and follow you guys for the last 3 years. Guys question if the old GFS is so terrible since it had the storm on 11/15 wrong should it be written off and just follow the improved GFS which seems more reliable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: People seriously giving up a week out? Jeez we go through this nonsense every winter - IMO opinion the GFS 12Z Para is still a reasonable solution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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