MJO812 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said: Gfs is way south canadian also still time but that confluence is stronger than the storm. Today’s 12z canadian showed how the low could break the confluence and it showed a snowstorm Uh? CMC is north of 12z and is a coastal hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, doesn't do it for me. Lol at the Northern stream digging for Cuba last min. GFS looks way too flat but we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The gfs and cmc are worlds apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 At hour 144, the low is near NYC on the CMC and near the Carolinas on the GFS LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said: Gfs is way south canadian also still time but that confluence is stronger than the storm. Today’s 12z canadian showed how the low could break the confluence and it showed a snowstorm Um.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Uh? CMC is north of 12z and is a coastal hugger. You’re right I’m sorry I’d take that run right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Um.... Vs this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Tonight's laugh. Anyone wanna go out to lunch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Rjay said: Vs this Let me ask you guys something... would you rate the gfs or Canadian higher? January 4th snowstorm last year Canadian hunted it before anyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Toekneeweather said: Let me ask you guys something... would you rate the gfs or Canadian higher? January 4th snowstorm last year Canadian hunted it before anyone else 2 junk piles. Canadian is a bigger pile of trash but every dog has its day. Northern stream came in out of nowhere o the Canadian. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Can we take the average between the two and put the low in the sweet spot? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, TriPol said: Can we take the average between the two and put the low in the sweet spot? GFS so far south a blend wouldn't be enough lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: GFS so far south a blend wouldn't be enough lol I like the gfs para if it stays south I’m going to get a bit worried but if it trends north we’ll you know it . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Ukie is similiar to the GFS Night all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 16 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said: Let me ask you guys something... would you rate the gfs or Canadian higher? My OP rankings: Euro Ukie FV3 GFS Canadian Navgem ICON "MAM" 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: My OP rankings: Euro Ukie FV3 GFS Canadian Navgem ICON How far down the list does the JMA fall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, TriPol said: How far down the list does the JMA fall? Somewhere between the canadian and icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: How far down the list does the JMA fall? Tbh I'd put the upside-down Korean ahead of the gfs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 17 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: 1983 was exceptionally wet. A local maximum might have existed in a small area running from near Central Park into lower Westchester County. Upon final review, the decision to leave the 1983 record intact could well have been based on a combination of radar (albeit limited compared to today's), local sites, and statistical analysis. The issue with the rain gauge may have been re-examined and found insignificant. The 1983 figure is 4.3σ above the historic mean annual precipitation (1869-2017) and 0.9σ above the 2011 figure of 72.81". I looked for other sites with similar or greater statistical differences. Currently, Wilmington, NC's 2018 figure of 95.82" is is 4.5σ above the historic mean annual precipitation (1871-2017) and 1.3σ above the second highest figure (83.65", 1877). The most extreme statistical difference that I found (and my search was not all-inclusive) was at Nashua (2 NNW). There, the 2008 record of 82.19" is 4.9σ above the historic mean annual precipitation (1886-2017) and 2.2σ above the second highest figure (60.64", 2011). Therefore, in the larger context of precipitation records, New York City's 1983 amount is not unprecedented when it comes to statistical comparisons. Nevertheless, it's still plausible that the 1983 figure was somewhat lower than the 80.56" amount that was recorded. However, after having looked for similar or greater statistical outliers, my confidence in the 1983 figure is greater than it was yesterday prior to that examination. Overall, I have confidence in the judgment made by the National Climatic Data Center. Thanks Don, for the rigorous analysis! I thought the 80" might have been slightly above what it should have been,but based on nearby reports, I thought the actual number should still have been higher than 70" So somewhere between the 2011 number and the 80" figure is probably a safe bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 18 hours ago, bluewave said: The only weather events that I can remember from 1983 were the Feb snowstorm, spring flash floods, and summer heat. Plenty of basement flooding in Long Beach during that spring deluge. Top wettest years at JFK #1....59.12....1983 #2...57.18.....1975 #3...55.78.....2011 #4...55.73.....1989 #5...53.22.....1984 #6...51.57.....2018 Yes, 1983 held all our 90+ degree heat records before the 90s came along. I think the extreme heat lasted well into September, I recall it being in the upper 90s into mid September and mid 90s in late September! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 35degs., or about 4 or 5degs. BN. EPS, last 4 runs 0" Snow. GEFS running 0" to 3" Snow. GFS has had four runs w/o any precipitation period!---for the next 10 days. The CMC probably thinks it is dealing with a tropical system, so it is blowing it up as usual. lol. Giving the models another 48 hours to straighten up and live right on this potential Dec.9-11 event . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Again the inverted trough feature is more pronounced in 6z runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Gfs para 6z is a hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Lol. New GFS caves to Canadian(almost) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 GFS Para was on its way to a major hit until it reached the coast of Virginia and the run gets wonky. The center "jumps" offshore. Looks to me like it may be the low chasing convection. Despite that, it was a big improvement from the 0Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 There's a lot of chatter in the NE thread about this storm ultimately coming further north due to the fact of models underestimating the northern stream with a weak ElNino being present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Looking at 06z GFS and it's heir, it's a little too close to the coast for my comfort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 22 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: Looking at 06z GFS and it's heir, it's a little too close to the coast for my comfort Huh? Too far south. Take your surprise 2" tomorrow night and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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