December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

[Stormlover74]

At this rate myrtle beach might be in the bullseye

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

At this rate myrtle beach might be in the bullseye

Check out the cmc

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Check out the cmc

similar to 0Z - IMO if Euro stays where it is at 12Z or moves north and west GFS is too suppressed

[TJW014]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

similar to 0Z - IMO if Euro stays where it is at 12Z or moves north and west GFS is too suppressed

Comes in a bit later too. If that were to play out, I need the center to be 50 miles farther east. From that I would yet again, get another all-rain event.

 

[495weatherguy]

2 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Thank You guys for posting so much information. Im sure many people learn a lot from you guys not just myself .

This!

[RU848789]

GFS whiffs, CMC hits.  This is why trying to "forecast" anything this far out is folly.  Fun to speculate, but still folly.  

 

 

[TJW014]

GEM looking at up to 6" on the ground for some parts of Camden, Gloucester, and Burlington counties.

[Byrdhousebv]

Greetings, all. Been lurking here for years, just installed an ambient WS in the yard, and decided to sign on.

Full disclosure; not much weather knowledge, and am a TOTAL snow fan. Reading the pbp's during snow events is my favorite.

First posted ob., T-55, H-53, DP-39, P-29.8 an falling, here in eastern Monmouth Co.    

[TJW014]

2 minutes ago, Byrdhousebv said:

Greetings, all. Been lurking here for years, just installed an ambient WS in the yard, and decided to sign on.

Full disclosure; not much weather knowledge, and am a TOTAL snow fan. Reading the pbp's during snow events is my favorite.

First posted ob., T-55, H-53, DP-39, P-29.8 an falling, here in eastern Monmouth Co.    

Congrats on the investment! I'm still yet to buy/install one a PWS

[NJwx85]

It's really hard to get a big storm to come up the coast when you have a flat, positively tilted trough like the GFS/Euro indicates.

The Northern branch is definitely the issue. If the timing slowed down further, it would allow for more amplification but the cold air would be retreating.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

It's really hard to get a big storm to come up the coast when you have a flat, positively tilted trough like the GFS/Euro indicates.

The Northern branch is definitely the issue. If the timing slowed down further, it would allow for more amplification but the cold air would be retreating.

Euro isn't far off at all

We just need the confluence to ease up

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Euro isn't far off at all

We just need the confluence to ease up

It's not that far off but the Northern branch is helping to keep the storm South. The Euro has more influence with the Northern branch actually helping to steer the system offshore. It's further away than the GFS is. The GFS has been far less progressive but the trough still doesn't have enough time to amplify before it gets squashed by said Northern branch.

[Toekneeweather]

It’s very far off timing wise so I wouldn’t worry about it too much. I’d make a full time investment on this storm if Thursday comes in snowy if not than I’d give up on it entirely. Euro is definitely not far off just the main cold kinda leaves by the time the low has an movement north.

[donsutherland1]

The large differences in both the 500 mb pattern evolution and sensible weather outcomes among the guidance suggests that significant uncertainty still exists for the storm that could affect parts of the East during the coming weekend. The 0z and 12z ECMWF snowfall outputs were also vastly different (the former showing 11" at Raleigh and the latter showing 3").

For now, there remains a strong consensus that low pressure will develop and tap moisture as it tracks near the Gulf Coast late this weekend into the coming weekend. Afterward, it will gradually turn east-northeast and move off either the Georgia or South Carolina coasts.

As a result, cities such as Pensacola and Tallahassee could again receive a major rainfall. During the December 1-3 period, Pensacola picked up 5.17" rain and Tallahassee received 7.92". Another 1"-2" (possibly more depending on the development and possible training of thunderstorms) seems reasonable for those two cities from the storm in question.

Farther north, the potential for accumulating snow exists for parts of the Carolinas into Virginia. Given the lack of model consensus, my preference remains the EPS (0z EPS continued to show a 500 mb pattern conducive to some past significant snowfalls in the lower Middle Atlantic and parts of the Southeast). Thus, my continuing expectation is that the storm will take a gradual turn more to the north once it moves offshore, but the turn will likely be too wide to bring more than a light snowfall to the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas, if that.

However, nothing is cast in stone at this lead time. The 12z GGEM still shows a potent snow threat to parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas. For now, though, the 500 mb pattern currently forecast on the EPS suggests that a GGEM-type scenario is a lower (not zero) probability than the one in which the storm largely or wholly limits its snows to the lower Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern regions.

Still, things can change given the amount of time involved. Further, regardless of the outcome, winter 2018-19 remains on track to be a snowy one in the Middle Atlantic, parts of the Great Lakes, and southern New England regions.

Finally, toward mid-month, milder conditions appear likely to develop. An EPO+/AO+ combination is forecast to develop as the MJO progresses through Phases 2 and 3 (Canadian and European ensembles; the former shows a faster progression).

[sferic]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The large differences in both the 500 mb pattern evolution and sensible weather outcomes among the guidance suggests that significant uncertainty still exists for the storm that could affect parts of the East during the coming weekend. The 0z and 12z ECMWF snowfall outputs were also vastly different (the former showing 11" at Raleigh and the latter showing 3").

For now, there remains a strong consensus that low pressure will be develop and tap moisture as it tracks near the Gulf Coast late this weekend into the coming weekend. Afterward, it will gradually turn east-northeast and move off either the Georgia or South Carolina coasts.

As a result, cities such as Pensacola and Tallahassee could again receive a major rainfall. During the December 1-3 period, Pensacola picked up 5.17" rain and Tallahassee received 7.92". Another 1"-2" (possibly more depending on the development and possible training of thunderstorms) seems reasonable for those two cities.

Farther north, the potential for accumulating snow exists for parts of the Carolinas into Virginia. Given the lack of model consensus, my preference remains the EPS (0z EPS continued to show a 500 mb pattern conducive to some past significant snowfalls in the lower Middle Atlantic and parts of the Southeast). Thus, my continuing expectation is that the storm will take a gradual turn more to the north once it moves offshore, but the turn will likely be too wide to bring more than a light snowfall to the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas, if that.

However, nothing is cast in stone at this lead time. The 12z GGEM still shows a potent snow threat to parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas. For now, though, the 500 mb pattern currently forecast on the EPS suggests that a GGEM-type scenario is a lower (not zero) probability than the one in which the storm largely or wholly limits its snows to the lower Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern regions.

Still, things can change given the amount of time involved. Further, regardless of the outcome, winter 2018-19 remains on track to be a snowy one in the Middle Atlantic, parts of the Great Lakes, and southern New England regions.

Finally, toward mid-month, milder conditions appear likely to develop. An EPO+/AO+ combination is forecast to develop as the MJO progresses through Phases 2 and 3 (Canadian and European ensembles; the former shows a faster progression).

Great write up Don, as usual

[Cfa]

So nice to have a “warm” sunny day for once. Topped out at 59° and it’s all downhill from here.

[North and West]

20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The large differences in both the 500 mb pattern evolution and sensible weather outcomes among the guidance suggests that significant uncertainty still exists for the storm that could affect parts of the East during the coming weekend. The 0z and 12z ECMWF snowfall outputs were also vastly different (the former showing 11" at Raleigh and the latter showing 3").

For now, there remains a strong consensus that low pressure will develop and tap moisture as it tracks near the Gulf Coast late this weekend into the coming weekend. Afterward, it will gradually turn east-northeast and move off either the Georgia or South Carolina coasts.

As a result, cities such as Pensacola and Tallahassee could again receive a major rainfall. During the December 1-3 period, Pensacola picked up 5.17" rain and Tallahassee received 7.92". Another 1"-2" (possibly more depending on the development and possible training of thunderstorms) seems reasonable for those two cities from the storm in question.

Farther north, the potential for accumulating snow exists for parts of the Carolinas into Virginia. Given the lack of model consensus, my preference remains the EPS (0z EPS continued to show a 500 mb pattern conducive to some past significant snowfalls in the lower Middle Atlantic and parts of the Southeast). Thus, my continuing expectation is that the storm will take a gradual turn more to the north once it moves offshore, but the turn will likely be too wide to bring more than a light snowfall to the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas, if that.

However, nothing is cast in stone at this lead time. The 12z GGEM still shows a potent snow threat to parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas. For now, though, the 500 mb pattern currently forecast on the EPS suggests that a GGEM-type scenario is a lower (not zero) probability than the one in which the storm largely or wholly limits its snows to the lower Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern regions.

Still, things can change given the amount of time involved. Further, regardless of the outcome, winter 2018-19 remains on track to be a snowy one in the Middle Atlantic, parts of the Great Lakes, and southern New England regions.

Finally, toward mid-month, milder conditions appear likely to develop. An EPO+/AO+ combination is forecast to develop as the MJO progresses through Phases 2 and 3 (Canadian and European ensembles; the former shows a faster progression).

Nice writeup. I would think this is a promising sign for an active winter as well, considering it's December 3rd.

[MJO812]

45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The large differences in both the 500 mb pattern evolution and sensible weather outcomes among the guidance suggests that significant uncertainty still exists for the storm that could affect parts of the East during the coming weekend. The 0z and 12z ECMWF snowfall outputs were also vastly different (the former showing 11" at Raleigh and the latter showing 3").

For now, there remains a strong consensus that low pressure will develop and tap moisture as it tracks near the Gulf Coast late this weekend into the coming weekend. Afterward, it will gradually turn east-northeast and move off either the Georgia or South Carolina coasts.

As a result, cities such as Pensacola and Tallahassee could again receive a major rainfall. During the December 1-3 period, Pensacola picked up 5.17" rain and Tallahassee received 7.92". Another 1"-2" (possibly more depending on the development and possible training of thunderstorms) seems reasonable for those two cities from the storm in question.

Farther north, the potential for accumulating snow exists for parts of the Carolinas into Virginia. Given the lack of model consensus, my preference remains the EPS (0z EPS continued to show a 500 mb pattern conducive to some past significant snowfalls in the lower Middle Atlantic and parts of the Southeast). Thus, my continuing expectation is that the storm will take a gradual turn more to the north once it moves offshore, but the turn will likely be too wide to bring more than a light snowfall to the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas, if that.

However, nothing is cast in stone at this lead time. The 12z GGEM still shows a potent snow threat to parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas. For now, though, the 500 mb pattern currently forecast on the EPS suggests that a GGEM-type scenario is a lower (not zero) probability than the one in which the storm largely or wholly limits its snows to the lower Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern regions.

Still, things can change given the amount of time involved. Further, regardless of the outcome, winter 2018-19 remains on track to be a snowy one in the Middle Atlantic, parts of the Great Lakes, and southern New England regions.

Finally, toward mid-month, milder conditions appear likely to develop. An EPO+/AO+ combination is forecast to develop as the MJO progresses through Phases 2 and 3 (Canadian and European ensembles; the former shows a faster progression).

Great writeup

The warm looks to be brief.

[NEG NAO]

12Z GEPS 

[NorthShoreWx]

20 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

As of 7 pm, much of the region saw 0.50"-1.00" rain, which was in line with modeled outcomes. Notable exceptions were Bridgeport and Islip where more than 1.00" fell.

As of 7 pm, total annual precipitation and 2018's rank among the wettest years is provided for select cities:

 

59.65" of rainfall for the year at my station in Smithtown as of December 3.  Coincidentally the same as New York City, but we did not get there the same way.

Alas, I haven't been recording rainfall that long, but this is our wettest year.  Second wettest was 2014 at 53.40".  Driest was 2013 at 37.11"

[CIK62]

The MJO  wave looks to go COD when it reaches the warm phases.    Something else may be a more important factor by then and keep the lid on the 2MT's.     But the TeleConnections all look bad too, during the second half of Dec.     That leaves the stratosphere as the Lone Ranger for us.

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

59.65" of rainfall for the year at my station in Smithtown as of December 3.  Coincidentally the same as New York City, but we did not get there the same way.

Alas, I haven't been recording rainfall that long, but this is our wettest year.  Second wettest was 2014 at 53.40".  Driest was 2013 at 37.11"

Thanks for sharing this data. It has been an impressively wet year. Shirley has set a record. Upton has reached 66".

[NEG NAO]

18Z GFS closer to coast and north

[NEG NAO]

[Ericjcrash]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

18Z GFS closer to coast and north

Big jump to GEM solution. Northern NC and all of VA demolished. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

18Z GFS closer to coast and north

Compare it to the 12z

I mean wow lol

[lagreeneyes03]

New to this particular board-here to follow NYC weather because I'll be there a lot.

So..seems this will NOT be an NYC storm? Kind of hoping there would be some snow next weekend, as I"ll be there and I almost NEVER see decent snow where I live. Maybe once every 10 years. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, lagreeneyes03 said:

New to this particular board-here to follow NYC weather because I'll be there a lot.

So..seems this will NOT be an NYC storm? Kind of hoping there would be some snow next weekend, as I"ll be there and I almost NEVER see decent snow where I live. Maybe once every 10 years. 

Where are you from?

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, lagreeneyes03 said:

New to this particular board-here to follow NYC weather because I'll be there a lot.

So..seems this will NOT be an NYC storm? Kind of hoping there would be some snow next weekend, as I"ll be there and I almost NEVER see decent snow where I live. Maybe once every 10 years. 

Still to be determined and its possible any snow here might hold off till past the weekend

[donsutherland1]

19 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Where are you from?

She's from Fort Worth.