doncat Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 0.70" so far for event...Yearly total now at 63.12" passing 1983 for 2nd wettest year since 1981. Wettest of course is 2011 at 73.50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 06Z GFS has no phase and thus no rage. The CMC is a pain with just plain rain. The EPS is a flop, then a hop, but it doesn't know when to stop. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 I wonder if there was some type of error at the NYC rain gauge in 1983. It was the only station in the area to reach 80 inches of precipitation that year. In any event, several stations are in the top 10 for 2018 updated through yesterday. Westtest years around the area EWR #1........69.91....2011 #2........65.50....1983 #12......52.38....2018 NYC #1.......80.56.....1983 #2.......72.81.....2011 #9.......59.09.....2018 LGA #1......65.34.....2011 #2......60.84.....1983 #9......51.94.....2018 JFK #1.....59.12......1983 #3....55.78.......2011 #6....51.57.......2018 HPN #1....74.15.......1983 #2....73.29.......2011 #20...53.15......2018 ISP #1....65.32......1989 #5....57.67......2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Models are tools yes but models are not being consistent. I know its far off but yeash,,,,,lets see what the runs say as we get a wee bit closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 24 minutes ago, CIK62 said: 06Z GFS has no phase and thus no rage. The CMC is a pain with just plain rain. The EPS is a flop, then a hop, but it doesn't know when to stop. Like usual, we won't know what will happen until the event starts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: I wonder if there was some type of error at the NYC rain gauge in 1983. It was the only station in the area to reach 80 inches of precipitation that year. In any event, several stations are in the top 10 for 2018 updated through yesterday. Westtest years around the area EWR #1........69.91....2011 #2........65.50....1983 #12......52.38....2018 NYC #1.......80.56.....1983 #2.......72.81.....2011 #9.......59.09.....2018 LGA #1......65.34.....2011 #2......60.84.....1983 #9......51.94.....2018 JFK #1.....59.12......1983 #2....60.84.......1983 #9....50.64.......2018 HPN #1....74.15.......1983 #2....73.29.......2011 #20...53.15......2018 ISP #1....65.32......1989 #5....57.67......2018 For a while the weather bureau did not count it saying there might be a problem with the gauge...then they restored it...Even this year central park is at least 15% higher than JFK or lga... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Both GFS and PARA GFS were suppressed and missed south big time for next weekends system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said: Both GFS and PARA GFS were suppressed and missed south big time for next weekends system And they were amped at 0z Op runs are going to be all over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1.10” here. I feel like I’ve seen more inch+ daily totals this year than the last 2-3 years combined. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 31 minutes ago, uncle W said: For a while the weather bureau did not count it saying there might be a problem with the gauge...then they restored it...Even this year central park is at least 15% higher than JFK or lga... Joe as far as I know it's bogus...I can remember the explanation of a faulty weld causing leakage into the gage...That total was 17" higher than my station even. Those totals were said to be thrown out but somehow it seems to have been forgot about. If you do a Google search you can find some further info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 40 minutes ago, uncle W said: For a while the weather bureau did not count it saying there might be a problem with the gauge...then they restored it...Even this year central park is at least 15% higher than JFK or lga... 5 minutes ago, doncat said: Joe as far as I know it's bogus...I can remember the explanation of a faulty weld causing leakage into the gage...That total was 17" higher than my station even. Those totals were said to be thrown out but somehow it seems to have been forgot about. If you do a Google search you can find some further info. Thanks, I missed this article which was posted in 2011. https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2011/12/2011-not-1983-is-new-yorks-wettest-year.html For some reason they've chosen to ignore the fact that 1983's total of 80.56" was invalidated after it was discovered that, beginning in May, Central Park's rain gauge was broken. According to Alan Rezek, chief of the Eastern Division's office back then, a faulty weld had been allowing extra water to seep in to be measured in addition to rain entering the gauge's calibrated opening. Although he said New York's rainfall would be adjusted I've never come across a revised figure. (TheLocal Climatological Data Reports for New York City leave the months of 1983 blank for precipitation and indicates the reason for the omission.) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 39 minutes ago, bluewave said: Thanks, I missed this article which was posted in 2011. https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2011/12/2011-not-1983-is-new-yorks-wettest-year.html For some reason they've chosen to ignore the fact that 1983's total of 80.56" was invalidated after it was discovered that, beginning in May, Central Park's rain gauge was broken. According to Alan Rezek, chief of the Eastern Division's office back then, a faulty weld had been allowing extra water to seep in to be measured in addition to rain entering the gauge's calibrated opening. Although he said New York's rainfall would be adjusted I've never come across a revised figure. (TheLocal Climatological Data Reports for New York City leave the months of 1983 blank for precipitation and indicates the reason for the omission.) Interesting question. Is it possible that the original diagnosis of the faulty weld was incorrect? If not, the records should be revised as appropriate. Accuracy matters. Personally, I believe 2011 may hold the record or be slightly behind. Statistically, the 1983 figure is so extreme, the faulty gauge seems like a reasonable explanation. However, White Plains recorded 74.15" that year, so a mid-70s figure might be plausible. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Gfs has snow now but not until Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Gfs and cmc look better definitely still a bit suppressed and warmer than I’d like to see but it’s so far away that those details don’t even matter. I’m more interested in what the GFS para is going to depict and of course the euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 12Z GFS Ob back to the coast hugger for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z GFS Ob back to the coast hugger for next week It pretty much goes over the BM but obviously far out and it keeps getting pushed back. Not much cold air around either on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Gfs para is suppressed again. I would think that high in the Atlantic would actually help bring the low more north. We’ll have to keep an eye on that squished high pressure if it has enough pressure to make our low pressure run up the coast instead of going out to sea like the GFS para is showing. The gfs and cmc had that idea a bit more than the gfs para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 48 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: It pretty much goes over the BM but obviously far out and it keeps getting pushed back. Not much cold air around either on the GFS. Cold air is marginal but would probably be enough to give us snow if the track and subsequently heavier precip were to align. It's still so far out there that it's not worth checking yet. Get it under 5 days and then we'll talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 I'd like to see some semblance of high pressure in Quebec. Without it, I'd worry whatever cranks in the southern stream will cut. Apps runner or sorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: I'd like to see some semblance of high pressure in Quebec. Without it, I'd worry whatever cranks in the southern stream will cut. Apps runner or sorts. There is too much confluence up north for this to be a cutter or an apps runner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 46 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: I'd like to see some semblance of high pressure in Quebec. Without it, I'd worry whatever cranks in the southern stream will cut. Apps runner or sorts. Yeah this isn’t cutting, the confluence will keep pushing this down south. Exactly what’s happening with the euro run. Suppressed to the max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 No precip this week? That's gonna feel different, cold though...just right for Christmas decorating. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 31 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said: Yeah this isn’t cutting, the confluence will keep pushing this down south. Exactly what’s happening with the euro run. Suppressed to the max We have been through this many times Models overdo the confluence until it gets closer. I don't see how there will be a lot of confluence to squash this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: We have been through this many times Models overdo the confluence until it gets closer. I don't see how there will be a lot of confluence to squash this. Luckily we’re so far away that there’s plenty of time for this to change! By Tuesday I would really look elsewhere if were still looking at suppression 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 This has to be a new dense fog record for December 2nd. Kennedy Intl DRZL/FOG 53 53 100 S6 29.65F VSB 1/16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 40 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said: Luckily we’re so far away that there’s plenty of time for this to change! By Tuesday I would really look elsewhere if were still looking at suppression just ask yourself - how many systems were suppressed this season so far ? The answer is obvious..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 52 minutes ago, Snow88 said: We have been through this many times Models overdo the confluence until it gets closer. I don't see how there will be a lot of confluence to squash this. It’s never ending up as far south as the 12Z Euro solely based on climo. SC and GA don’t see these sort of snow events this early in the season. I doubt it verifies that far down but it sure may end up as a miss still where DCA is hit and nobody north of there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s never ending up as far south as the 12Z Euro solely based on climo. SC and GA don’t see these sort of snow events this early in the season. I doubt it verifies that far down but it sure may end up as a miss still where DCA is hit and nobody north of there See them like the euro depicts maybe every decade at best. 2-3' for Greenville/Spartanburg. Imagine if that verified lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 NWS Mt. Holly mentioned the potential coastal system in their forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now