December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

[Toekneeweather]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

No - ignore the GFS - its Para run is going south and east of us - so does the GEM - waiting for the Euro o finish running - apparently early next year the GFS Para is taking over for the old GFS for obvious reasons...…..

The GFS is the worst model in my opinion. It had rain the whole entire time for November 15th snowstorm. Gfs para was much better and I think that’s going to be the official gfs starting January.

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Euro looks to be a southern slider. Right where we want it

[NEG NAO]

The GEFS is further south and east and colder then the OP here are the 2m temps at 0Z 9th

[Ericjcrash]

2 euro runs in a row way suppressed. Epic NC, SC and VA hit verbatim.

[Ericjcrash]

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

2 euro runs in a row way suppressed. Epic NC and VA hit verbatim.

The 0Z Euro was not totally suppressed like the 12 Z

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018120100/usa/significant-weather/20181209-0600z.html

[uncle W]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Will this be the first time on record that NYC gets a 6 inch or greater snowfall in both November and December? 

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/sixplussnow.pdf

1896 an el nino year had storms 5" or more both months. ..

[rclab]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It would be pretty wild if we could get our first season with a 6 inch storm in Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, and Mar for NYC. Posters won't be happy if we get an under-measured storm  in one of those months around 5.8" or 5.9".

So true, even though it would be interesting to see the Folks that measure in the park walking around funny because of where their rulers ended up.

[CIK62]

EPS very consistent with the Dec. 09-10 potential.........3",10",1",0".........cough, cough, cough.       At least the GEFS has been stuck at 2" or 3" every run.     Without a phase----they are all in a daze.

[purduewx80]

31 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

EPS very consistent with the Dec. 09-10 potential.........3",10",1",0".........cough, cough, cough.       At least the GEFS has been stuck at 2" or 3" every run.     Without a phase----they are all in a daze.

meteorologists don't look at ensemble average snowfall a week+ in advance to predict whether or not there may be a storm.

[donsutherland1]

As of 9 pm, Islip had picked up 0.03" rain bringing the 2018 total to 57.70". As a result, 2018 surpassed 1998 when 57.68" precipitation fell to become Islip's 4th wettest year on record.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

It would be pretty wild if we could get our first season with a 6 inch storm in Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, and Mar for NYC. Posters won't be happy if we get an under-measured storm  in one of those months around 5.8" or 5.9".

Thats not enough I want April too ;-)

1896- was that the year with the very cold January blizzard?

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, rclab said:

So true, even though it would be interesting to see the Folks that measure in the park walking around funny because of where their rulers ended up.

Maybe they make the same mistake some of our posters make and stick the ruler in upside down ;-)

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

meteorologists don't look at ensemble average snowfall a week+ in advance to predict whether or not there may be a storm.

He sounds like a stock market trader.

[Toekneeweather]

Gfs is definitely more amplified than its previous runs.

top image: latest run 0z run

bottom image: early evening 18z run

 

0z run

18z run

Images courtesy

www.tropicaltidbits.com

 

Big hit incoming! In my opinion.

 

Edit:

0z run

18z run

Big hit happening next Sunday 7am! 

It has the look of January 23rd 2016 nam caught that perfect cause every model was suppressing it at the end everyone followed nam pulling up the coast and dumping 26 and change of snow in Central Park breaking the all time high for a 24 hrs snowstorm.

 

Edit: GFS finishes a bit suppressed but it does snow decent here anyway. Philly is the bullseye. Last run was mostly rain but this could be a trend towards a more  suppressed solution like the euro and cmc.

[Toekneeweather]

It should be -50 in Yakutsk Siberia  Monday morning their time just before sunrise around 9:17am 

ive been paying attention to this city’s temperatures for a long time probably ten years and I don’t ever remember it this cold & this early. Another 20 days really of having less sun and it than it finally starts retreating back. Of course for us we gain day light but some of these cities don’t have sun weeks and possibly months after winter solstice. 

[NEG NAO]

0Z GEM is coming further north also - Euro should be interesting for what its worth still being a week away...…..

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

0Z GEM is coming further north also - Euro should be interesting for what its worth still being a week away...…..

Cmc has been out for almost an hour but all we know right know is that there will be a storm.

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said:

It should be -50 in Yakutsk Siberia  Monday morning their time just before sunrise around 9:17am 

ive been paying attention to this city’s temperatures for a long time probably ten years and I don’t ever remember it this cold & this early. Another 20 days really of having less sun and it than it finally starts retreating back. Of course for us we gain day light but some of these cities don’t have sun weeks and possibly months after winter solstice. 

Thats a famous city- the one with the record for being the coldest city in the world and the one with the largest temperature variations.

 

Two others that are close by, but are considered towns and not cities and are even colder, are Omyakon and Verkhoyansk.  Look at their temps too.

 

[Toekneeweather]

46 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thats a famous city- the one with the record for being the coldest city in the world and the one with the largest temperature variations.

 

Two others that are close by, but are considered towns and not cities and are even colder, are Omyakon and Verkhoyansk.  Look at their temps too.

 

It’s Oymyakon and I think most times Yakutsk has the coldest temperature before the rest of these smallercities or towns. It tells me it’s  going to get really cold soon. Yakutsk must be a beautiful city during the summer. Crystal clear blue skies with a nice breeze with many days reaching into the 80’s

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said:

It’s Oymyakon and I think most times Yakutsk has the coldest temperature before the rest of these smallercities or towns. It tells me thats going to get really cold soon. Yakutsk must be a beautiful city during the summer. Crystal clear blue skies with a nice breeze with many days reaching into the 80’s

Yaktusk can get to 100 or higher in the summer and down to about -80 in the winter.  The spelling of the other cities depends upon the translation, they use J and Y interchangeably, I've seen it spelled with a J too.  That city gets to 90 in the summer and the lowest I have them listed for is -98 in the winter.  Verkhoyansk has gotten close to 100 in the summer and -90 in the winter.

 

[Toekneeweather]

T

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yaktusk can get to 100 or higher in the summer and down to about -80 in the winter.  The spelling of the other cities depends upon the translation, they use J and Y interchangeably, I've seen it spelled with a J too.  That city gets to 90 in the summer and the lowest I have them listed for is -98 in the winter.  Verkhoyansk has gotten close to 100 in the summer and -90 in the winter.

 

I haven’t seen Yakutsk ever at -80 but I’m sure they’ve hit. Yakutsk did hit 101 in 2011 all time high. But it doesn’t hit every year. It does seem to have 90’s every year. I would love to visit that city during the summer though for some reason. The two small cities you just mentioned hold for two of the coldest temperatures in the northern hemisphere 

coldest:

Oymyakon reached −67.7 °C (−89.9 °F)

 

2nd coldest:

Verkhoyansk −67.6 °C (−89.7 °F)

 

by the way para gfs was suppressed for next week.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said:

T

I haven’t seen Yakutsk ever at -80 but I’m sure they’ve hit. Yakutsk did hit 101 in 2011 all time high. But it doesn’t hit every year. It does seem to have 90’s every year. I would love to visit that city during the summer though for some reason. The two small cities you just mentioned hold for two of the coldest temperatures in the northern hemisphere 

coldest:

Oymyakon reached −67.7 °C (−89.9 °F)

 

2nd coldest:

Verkhoyansk −67.6 °C (−89.7 °F)

 

by the way para gfs was suppressed for next week.

I know they have permafrost in the winter, I just dont know how much it snows there.  I've always wanted to see them too, and been envious of their temperature extremes.  Sometimes I wish we didn't have a huge ocean like the Pacific to the west of us and North America was much larger, then maybe we'd have temperature extremes like that too.

 

Other places to check out and keep track of are cities like Sapporo, in Japan, they have noreasters just like we do, but in the same way the West Pac sees much larger and more frequent typhoons, cities like Sapporo get much larger noreasters too.  I remember seeing pictures of snow that were tens of feet high (not drifts!)

 

 

[Ericjcrash]

Euro is a very very narrow crush job.

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, Toekneeweather said:

T

I haven’t seen Yakutsk ever at -80 but I’m sure they’ve hit. Yakutsk did hit 101 in 2011 all time high. But it doesn’t hit every year. It does seem to have 90’s every year. I would love to visit that city during the summer though for some reason. The two small cities you just mentioned hold for two of the coldest temperatures in the northern hemisphere 

coldest:

Oymyakon reached −67.7 °C (−89.9 °F)

 

2nd coldest:

Verkhoyansk −67.6 °C (−89.7 °F)

 

by the way para gfs was suppressed for next week.

yakutsk does not get as cold as it use to be due to climate change...

[Rtd208]

Larry Cosgrove seems onboard with a storm in the December 6-11 time frame then a bit of a warm up until around Christmas then it looks like game on for more cold/snow from the last week of the month and to start January at least.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 42degs., or about 2degs. AN.

EPS back to 9" for next weekend.   GEFS just stuck at 2"-3" for days already.

Update from yesterday:

EPS very consistent with the Dec. 09-10 potential.........3",10",1",0",9",0".........cough, cough, cough.       At least the GEFS has been stuck at 2" or 3" every run.     Without a phase----they are all in a daze.    GEFS down to 1"-2".      

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.40" of rain since midnight

Storm total 0.51" of rain.

[weathermedic]

.53 inches total here so far.

Regarding potential weekend storm: Don’t focus on the qpf maps. Look at 500mb maps until we get 2-3 days away. Then we can start to look at qpf to get an idea of where the heaviest precipitation may fall. That’s my opinion. 

[TJW014]

4 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

Euro is a very very narrow crush job.

Drag that yellow East 10 miles and I'm golden. Still hard to get loaded with snow this close to the ocean. Last temperature I saw was 51°. The river, however was partially frozen from that Arctic blast we had on Thanksgiving