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December 2018 General Discussion & Observations


Zelocita Weather
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2 hours ago, Tornadocane said:

The Tri-State area is basically threading the needle with every single storm this winter, but there are so many quick moving storms this year.  There will be storms when its warm, and there will be storms when it's cold.  I imagine there will be 3-4 storms that drop 3-10 inches of snow this winter, as well as some super coastal runners that bury the interior areas with 8-16 inches. 

Currently, the GFS is depicting some close coastal storms between days 5-14.  Anything could happen. 

Uh?

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It will be interesting if this is the 2nd year in a row to snow around December 9th. The EPS has had this potential for several runs now.

The 2nd week of December has had the most years with a measurable snowfall in NYC since 2009.

December NYC weekly climatology for measurable snowfall since 2009:

Dec 1-7........0 out of 9 years

Dec 8-14......5 out of 9 years

Dec 15-21....4 out of 9 years

Dec 22-31....4 out of 9 years..last 10 days 

https://www.weather.gov/okx/storm12092017

ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_11.thumb.png.a7a558e9e411d8d6a30ace1c2d8ab30d.png

 

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the biggest December snowfalls during an el nino year are...

only five of the 22 years got a snowfall 6" or higher...I bet we add to this list this year...

10.9" in 2009 19th-20th

..8.0" in 1957 3rd-4th...

..6.2" in 1969 25th-26th...

..6.2" in 1963 23rd-24th...

..6.0" in 2002 5th...

..5.2" in 1968 15th...

..5.0" in 2002 25th...

..3.5" in 1979 19th...

..3.4" in 1958 8th-9th

..3.0" in 1982 12th...

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55 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The EPS is predicting 10" now, up from 3" last run.

Can one of you guys explain the difference between the GFS and the new FV3-GFS ? BTW the FV3 also sees the storm next weekend and I believe it did a decent job with the last storm that shocked many. Thanks in advance for any info / help 

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41 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So go with the Euro as usual, Don?

They have already started talking about a possible winter storm next weekend on our locals, specifically Ch 7 WABC.

My preference is the EPS at this point for a very general idea. Details can be worked out later.

The operational Euro had its biggest snowfall output so far (10" NYC/EWR; 14" PHL). One prior run of the FV3 had very high snowfall amounts. Some EPS members have very high snowfall amounts, as well, so there is some risk of such a snowfall. But that's still more than a week away, so much can change.

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Weather Channel forecast for NYC between December 5th-12th is very reminiscent of December 2013. It has 8 straight days of high temps remaining in the 30s. We all know how the Winter of 2013-2014 played out, so let's hope it comes to fruition.

 

Dec 2013                High         Mean     Low

image.png.41bec2474ea698f768d9c082ee42bdb4.png

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Tomorrow night into Sunday, the New York City region will be in line for a moderate precipitation event. Much of the region will likely see 0.50" rain with local amounts reaching 1.00" in some places.

Already, 2018 ranks among the 10 wettest years on record in much of the region. Some locations have set new annual precipitation records. Those locations include Elmira and Upton.

Farther south Baltimore has set an annual precipitation record, Philadelphia has had its 5th wettest year on record, and Washington, DC has had its 3rd wettest year on record. There is a chance that Washington, DC could approach or exceed its annual rainfall record this weekend. Even if Washington falls short, it is very likely that Washington will set a new record before 2018 concludes.

Some rankings scenarios based on precipitation amounts ranging from 0.50" to 1.00" follow:

Rain11302018-Scenarios.jpg

In terms of snowfall, New York City's total snowfall through today is the 4th highest on record at this point in time. Only 1898 (19.0"), 1882 (14.0"), and 1938 (12.8") saw more snowfall.

Since regular recordkeeping began in 1869, New York City has had 9 cases when snowfall through November 30 came to 3.5" or more. Most of the following winters proved snowy. Data for the 9 cases is below:

Mean seasonal snowfall: 40.2"
Median seasonal snowfall: 43.6"

% cases with 30" or more seasonal snowfall: 77.8%
% cases with 40" or more seasonal snowfall: 55.6%
% cases with < 20" seasonal snowfall: 11.1%

Lowest seasonal snowfall: 13.4", 1989-90
Highest seasonal snowfall: 60.3", 1872-73

December snowfall will likely provide further insight into seasonal snowfall. NYC needs just 3.6" snow in December to bring the November-December total to 10.0". Seasons during which November-December snowfall was 10.0" or higher were markedly snowier than those when November-December snowfall was less than 10".

November-December Snowfall: 10" or More:

Mean snowfall: 43.7"
Median snowfall: 43.4"

% cases with < 20" seasonal snowfall: 3.1%
% cases with 30" or more seasonal snowfall: 87.5%

November-December Snowfall: Less than 10":

Mean snowfall: 24.8"
Median snowfall: 24.3"

% cases with < 20" seasonal snowfall: 39.3%
% cases with 30" or more seasonal snowfall: 28.2%

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20 minutes ago, tim said:

...KFOK @ 27*

i'm @ 29.5*...with last nites precip things are very icy..cars are locked in ice.

a lot of talk in mid atlantic .. RE: next weekend snowstorm..nothing here!

could it be suppresion city here?

We want the gfs to be south of us right now

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12 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

I agree. There are many times where these big ticket events end up further north.  6z GFS was close to a big hit for us. Southern Jersey on southward gets dumped while we still get some decent snows up here. 

Para gfs is similiar

I think suppression is a bigger concern than a cutter or a hugger due to the epo push of cold air but we have seen this game before.

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12 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

Gfs West/warm, other models similar?

No - ignore the GFS - its Para run is going south and east of us - so does the GEM - waiting for the Euro o finish running - apparently early next year the GFS Para is taking over for the old GFS for obvious reasons...…..

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