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NorEastermass128

December Discussion

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29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We should probably wait until the next three weeks play out to judge.

Steve is very happy since frozen doggie doo can’t be tracked in. 

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I would not go out on any ice around here yet, although it looks perfect. 

Williamsville Pond, Hubbardston.  Drilled a test hole every 25 feet, 4.5” was the lowest, had one spot over 6”.  Me and the kids had a blast out there today!  Time to dust off the tip ups.

459FC3D0-585B-4806-9103-2A48A8547791.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, Dpb1983 said:

Williamsville Pond, Hubbardston.  Drilled a test hole every 25 feet, 4.5” was the lowest, had one spot over 6”.  Me and the kids had a blast out there today!  Time to dust off the tip ups.

459FC3D0-585B-4806-9103-2A48A8547791.jpeg

4" black ice was the rule I grew up with.

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1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said:

We need a hit before Christmas or before NYE, the very latest. 

Almost 100 pages only 9 days into the month...you’d think BOS would already have 20+ on the season. 

I've never seen so much interest in mild ups, warm ups, or torches, or whatever you want to label them.

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Hmm what you guys thinks of what these guys opinions on the Mid Atlantic forum lol. They agree with me, Isotherm and others. 

 

Bob Chill says 

EPS kicking up the -EPO bigly and quicker than the 0z run. Totally different look d13+ in our parts compared to 2+ runs ago. GEFS may win another model war. 

 

Psuhoffman

EPS seems to have caved again to the gefs timing of the cold. Gets the cold into the east by the 24th. Now we just need a wave on that front!   Love that warmups are brief and cold returns ahead of schedule so far this cold season. 

 

IMG_7949.thumb.PNG.15ac71e113af71eeedd08882e1b5f4ea.PNG

 

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18 minutes ago, Dpb1983 said:

Williamsville Pond, Hubbardston.  Drilled a test hole every 25 feet, 4.5” was the lowest, had one spot over 6”.  Me and the kids had a blast out there today!  Time to dust off the tip ups.

459FC3D0-585B-4806-9103-2A48A8547791.jpeg

Nice.  Looks amazing. Didn’t realize it was that thick.  

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8 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

Hmm what you guys thinks of what these guys opinions on the Mid Atlantic forum lol. They agree with me, Isotherm and others. 

 

Bob Chill says 

EPS kicking up the -EPO bigly and quicker than the 0z run. Totally different look d13+ in our parts compared to 2+ runs ago. GEFS may win another model war. 

 

Psuhoffman

EPS seems to have caved again to the gefs timing of the cold. Gets the cold into the east by the 24th. Now we just need a wave on that front!   Love that warmups are brief and cold returns ahead of schedule so far this cold season. 

 

IMG_7949.thumb.PNG.15ac71e113af71eeedd08882e1b5f4ea.PNG

 

I’m not sure what this is supposed to mean when the GEFS went warmer before that. I think it just proves models are volatile in the long range? Until then enjoy a couple of good rain events and hopefully some dews.

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3 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

Hmm what you guys thinks of what these guys opinions on the Mid Atlantic forum lol. They agree with me, Isotherm and others. 

 

Bob Chill says 

EPS kicking up the -EPO bigly and quicker than the 0z run. Totally different look d13+ in our parts compared to 2+ runs ago. GEFS may win another model war. 

 

Psuhoffman

EPS seems to have caved again to the gefs timing of the cold. Gets the cold into the east by the 24th. Now we just need a wave on that front!   Love that warmups are brief and cold returns ahead of schedule so far this cold season. 

 

I mean overall you'll find that even ensembles have a bit of an untethered firehose problem at the end of the run. What's more, comparing one 12z run to one 00z run is not particularly useful. It's often the case that 12z and 00z can have a bit of a yo-yo back and forth for a few runs. 

Finally the GEFS can win some, but more often than not the EPS is superior because of how it is constructed.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nothing else to discuss. There is zero chance of a significant snow event for at least like two weeks.

We could have been discussing more the bn cold we have had the last 3 weeks in all of the region.  Just because there wasn't a significant snow event didn't mean we move right to "warmupville".  We have discussed the cold, but I would bet there have been a lot more posts about the warm up.

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9 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

We could have been discussing more the bn cold we have had the last 3 weeks in all of the region.  Just because there wasn't a significant snow event didn't mean we move right to "warmupville".  We have discussed the cold, but I would bet there have been a lot more posts about the warm up.

Cold is boring...nobody rubs one off to cold and boring and pond ice...

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1 minute ago, #NoPoles said:

Cold is boring...nobody rubs one off to cold and boring and pond ice...

Warmth in December is even more boring.  But to each his own.

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6 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Cold is boring...nobody rubs one off to cold and boring and pond ice...

lol except the posts a few up from yours.

I mean it's not ideal but below freezing is still seasons in seasons ;).

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Oh look, let the dog out and it's snowing outside.

Our nightly snow is arriving on schedule.  Every single night this week.  Days and days and days of flakes.

#notboring amirite?

blJES3y.gif

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58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The cold is pretty useless. Yay for pond ice. 

The cold wasn't useless here lots of snow. 

 

Looks like the EPS is caving to the GEFS.  Afterall, no one denies the fact that their will be a warm up the duration however has been in question since the get go. It gets better too as the NAO goes sharply negative on December 20th. That would certainly help push the cold air faster out east. 

 

m500z_dif_f264_bg.png

 

m500z_dif_f276_bg.png

 

m500z_dif_f288_bg.png

 

m500z_dif_f300_bg.png

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41 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

We could have been discussing more the bn cold we have had the last 3 weeks in all of the region.  Just because there wasn't a significant snow event didn't mean we move right to "warmupville".  We have discussed the cold, but I would bet there have been a lot more posts about the warm up.

We tracked the southern storm for a good 5 days in the extended. We talk all weather here too. A warmup is in the cards overall for a couple of weeks. We all love winter weather here though. I don’t think anyone is cheering on a torch stretch. Some just get really defensive when any talk of warmth is mentioned. We’ll see what happens come verification time. Balls are being spiked everywhere.

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3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

The LR/Seasonal outlook makes sense but given the northeast missed out today, there's no guarantee we'll see big snows during that period either (would be horrendously bad luck). 

It's a rough time for weenies, November started off with a bang then grinded to a halt, parts of the SE got buried, and now the majority of us may miss out on snow this month. 

These are going to be an agonizing few weeks. 

LOL

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3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Greensboro was reporting over a foot.

I was surprised to see reports of RDU losing most of it.  Hard to believe.

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I was surprised to see reports of RDU losing most of it.  Hard to believe.

Also, Roanoke, VA has a metro pop. of about 300,000, and they are getting up to 18" in places.  The annual average for the city is 18".

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Very strange configuration to the December 16th storm.  Was suppose to go west of us but now seems to go under us based on the 18z GFS. :unsure:

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No complaints, winter set in Mid November,  1 great storm of many to come. We missed out on 3 potential big storms, it happens but its a long way to March 20th.

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