December Discussion

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Maybe for you?  Not supported in a general statement 

 

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304793504576434442652581806

I was at an architecture & building expo at the mothership in South Boston last week.  It had been 5 years or so since I last attended, and been in that part of the city and I could not believe the construction going on there.  One of the last the last projects I worked on when I worked in Boston was parts of the Silver Line project.  When it opened it seemed funny how it just went to the Seaport Hotel and the convention center that was stil in construction at the time with not much else around (maybe the courthouse?). Now, it is like mini Dubai type stuff going on (some call it crane city). Office building and apartment building after office building and apartment building being built...With some mixed use and hotels thrown in there.  The funny thing is that besides the Silver Line there really have not been many infrastructure improvements.  This whole area was an industrial port zone, and now they are just throwing up these 10-20 story buildings on to a sewer, water, and gas system that is really not completely ready for the influx.  ...Oh, and there is not a grocery store in sight so everyone has to uber it over to South Bay or somewhere else until the Target is built.   

It looks cool, but much of the side talk at the expo was regarding the poor infrastructure planning.

But...People want this type of living and will pay the $2,500-$3,500 or more for a meager 2 bedroom apartment.  They will either work within walking distance or jump on the sliver line busses to down town and beyond. 

One of the long range plans for Back bay is to have the entire Mass pike covered with some type of structures from Mass Ave East towards I93.  Much of the area just east of mass ave is filled in towards back bay, but it is the area from Clerendon beyond that wants to be filled in.  More volume, more numbers of people, and an aging subway and water and sewer system that again will have to be addressed over time to deal with the influx.  There is already a tower that is going to be just shy in height of the Prudential by a few feet that will be filled with luxury apartments.  ...As long as people keep flocking to the city, this stuff will continue to  be built. 

Edit:  Cities are not just for the youth anyomore.  My friends parents move out of the suburbs of NYC into a 42nd story penthouse apartment overlooking the world trade center memorial. ...Literally looking right down on that and the museum.  They enjoy that lifestyle and want nothing to do with lawns, and having to take care of a house or be in a suburan setting.  I know other older people who have made similar moves.

[NorEastermass128]

4 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

I was at an architecture & building expo at the mothership in South Boston last week.  It had been 5 years or so since I last attended, and been in that part of the city and I could not believe the construction going on there.  One of the last the last projects I worked on when I worked in Boston was parts of the Silver Line project.  When it opened it seemed funny how it just went to the Seaport Hotel and the convention center that was stil in construction at the time with not much else around (maybe the courthouse?). Now, it is like mini Dubai type stuff going on (some call it crane city). Office building and apartment building after office building and apartment building being built...With some mixed use and hotels thrown in there.  The funny thing is that besides the Silver Line there really have not been many infrastructure improvements.  This whole area was an industrial port zone, and now they are just throwing up these 10-20 story buildings on to a sewer, water, and gas system that is really not completely ready for the influx.  ...Oh, and there is not a grocery store in sight so everyone has to uber it over to South Bay or somewhere else until the Target is built.   

It looks cool, but much of the side talk at the expo was regarding the poor infrastructure planning.

But...People want this type of living and will pay the $2,500-$3,500 or more for a meager 2 bedroom apartment.  They will either work within walking distance or jump on the sliver line busses to down town and beyond. 

One of the long range plans for Back bay is to have the entire Mass pike covered with some type of structures from Mass Ave East towards I93.  Much of the area just east of mass ave is filled in towards back bay, but it is the area from Clerendon beyond that wants to be filled in.  More volume, more numbers of people, and an aging subway and water and sewer system that again will have to be addressed over time to deal with the influx.  There is already a tower that is going to be just shy in height of the Prudential by a few feet that will be filled with luxury apartments.  ...As long as people keep flocking to the city, this stuff will continue to  be built. 

Boston may not have that small town, world class city vibe anymore.  Just big town, big city vibe.  The urban heat island will keep places like Chestnut Hill waiting until 12/10 and beyond for average first freezes soon enough.

[Zach’s Pop]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

And no one is canceling winter or even the end of December for that matter. Maybe if you're good Santa will bring you some mountain torque in your stocking.

Maybe if your good your chickens will tell you what mountain torque is 

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Bad luck or not, the pattern has been stormy.  I mean SNE missed another Warning criteria storm in late November by like 50-100 miles that crushed NNE.  That storm was a lot closer than Boone, NC.  

There have been a lot of events the past 4 weeks that could've worked out much differently but there have been plenty of threats it seems.  

Now we relax and winter tries again later.

Ray is speaking about December and not November. Even SNE cashed in during the November stretch.

We def whiffed on a pretty favorable larger scale pattern in the Dec 4-10 period. Had two shots but missed both. It happens. That is a pretty epic southern stream shortwave and it had several potential northern stream partners...they just never lined up. That's atmospheric chaos against us in a larger scale favorable regime. Hopefully we can score an event in a more marginal pattern to make up for it. 

[EastonSN+]

51 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Looks like Charlotte got under an inch.   Asheville got a good snow....at least 6-10...maybe more.

Raleigh got 6.75. Cary 7.5

[Greg]

I think just south of Roanoke, VA in the mountains gets about 18-20" as a total when all is said, done and settled.  This morning, up to about 14-16" of snow was found in those locations.

[Cold Miser]

5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Boston may not have that small town, world class city vibe anymore.  Just big town, big city vibe.  The urban heat island will keep places like Chestnut Hill waiting until 12/10 and beyond for average first freezes soon enough.

Actually, it is somewhat the opposite, but not completely world class on the scale of many European cities.  The last 15-20 years Boston has actually begun to express the world class vibe on a bigger scale.  As negative a feel it seemed to have at the time, the aftermath of the big dig project, while not really an answer to the traffic problem, has brought about many showcase buildings and upgrades to, as well as new features to the above ground landscape.  There is a history to Boston that is truly American, but also rich in European roots.  The city has come a long way since the despair of the late 1960's and 1970's.  Believe it or not one gauge of "world class" is extended nightlife, a feature that Boston does not have.  Sh*t shuts down at 1 or 2.   Many people from other countries enjoy being out until 3 or 4 in the morning, knowing that there is lively activity...Boston does not allow for that.   But, as far as the pre-nightlife activities, there is much to explore and learn from Boston through museums, universities and other tours in and around the city.  There is always the fear of the homogenized, corporate b.s. that we see taking over neighborhoods with chain after chain, but (at the time being) Boston has enough going on to offset this. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ray is speaking about December and not November. Even SNE cashed in during the November stretch.

We def whiffed on a pretty favorable larger scale pattern in the Dec 4-10 period. Had two shots but missed both. It happens. That is a pretty epic southern stream shortwave and it had several potential northern stream partners...they just never lined up. That's atmospheric chaos against us in a larger scale favorable regime. Hopefully we can score an event in a more marginal pattern to make up for it. 

Really ... doesn't analyze that deep or strong... 

I guess circumstantially, snowing 6"in interior NC is teeechnically epic.  

[Rtd208]

9 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

EURO is showing a faster phase between the two streams for the 12th, as the coastal low comes closer and the H5 trough phases in, this could get interesting in the next 72 hours.

 

6 hours ago, Snow88 said:

There isn't any cold air around

This is going to be rain for everyone

Agreed Snow88, it potentially could be a wild storm but it will be rain for just about everyone. With that being said it could be a multi hazard storm (i.e. flooding, wind and coastal issues).

[weathafella]

14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Raleigh got 6.75. Cary 7.5

That’s high impact.  RDU averages 4 inches per year.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

 

Agreed Snow88, it potentially could be a wild storm but it will be rain for just about everyone. With that being said it could be a multi hazard storm (i.e. flooding, wind and coastal issues).

That is not the storm I was talking about.

[512high]

Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

That is not the storm I was talking about.

Are you referring about this Wednesday?

[Rtd208]

2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

That is not the storm I was talking about.

I realized that after I replied although I don't think there will be much going on mid week either IMO.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

2 minutes ago, 512high said:

Are you referring about this Wednesday?

 

1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

I realized that after I replied although I don't think there will be much going on mid week either IMO.

Models overnight into the 12z hour runs, have shown some change towards a more amplified northern stream.

[ORH_wxman]

25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Really ... doesn't analyze that deep or strong... 

I guess circumstantially, snowing 6"in interior NC is teeechnically epic.  

I was more speaking of the scope of its coverage. It's a pretty large shortwave...not one of these little compact deals that may be deeper or higher vorticity...but these larger ones can really build up a large thermal gradient in terms of aerial coverage and they have an impressive fetch of moisture advection. If we had been able to phase this sucker into pushing further north, could've been pretty fun. 

But as is, good for the folks in S VA...an area that often gets left out. Prettt epic there. 

[dendrite]

39 minutes ago, Zach’s Pop said:

Maybe if your good your chickens will tell you what mountain torque is 

Nice grammar there genius. 

Hopefully you get some good sleep tonight in your footie pajamas after HM tucks you in and tells you everything will be alright.

[Zach’s Pop]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Nice grammar there genius. 

Hopefully you get some good sleep tonight in your footie pajamas after HM tucks you in and tells you everything will be alright.

That’s funny. At one time HM was welcome here. Sadly the METS left here can only look at model runs and tell us what to expect. Perhaps HM could send you a jock strap of his. Maybe you could grow into someday 

[Chrisrotary12]

For all of the discussion regarding the number of shortwaves in the flow and the models not having a good handle on them because they were located in poor sampling locations......admittedly, they guidance handle this system pretty well.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

For all of the discussion regarding the number of shortwaves in the flow and the models not having a good handle on them because they were located in poor sampling locations......admittedly, they guidance handle this system pretty well.

Yes they did. It was kind of an all or nothing though. Like 80% of the time  that a phase would whiff, it will stay locked into the same track...but in the 1 out of ~5 times or so that they screwed up and the northern stream phases in, we probably would have seen a monster solution much further north. The large scale PV location was pretty stable but the spokes around it were where any potential mishap could happen. 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Zach’s Pop said:

That’s funny. At one time HM was welcome here. Sadly the METS left here can only look at model runs and tell us what to expect. Perhaps HM could send you a jock strap of his. Maybe you could grow into someday 

He is always welcome here. Everyone here is a fan of his. Where did that false narrative come from?

I’m specifically talking to you, referencing your trolling, and your borderline stalking with a new account. Your leash is growing shorter here...fyi.

[dendrite]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yes they did. It was kind of an all or nothing though. Like 80% of the time  that a phase would whiff, it will stay locked into the same track...but in the 1 out of ~5 times or so that they screwed up and the northern stream phases in, we probably would have seen a monster solution much further north. The large scale PV location was pretty stable but the spokes around it were where any potential mishap could happen. 

I haven’t analyzed the individual shortwaves in days, but they were jumping around quite a bit in that d5-6 timeframe. In the end, the changes didn’t matter though. Squash city in all of the progs.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I haven’t analyzed the individual shortwaves in days, but they were jumping around quite a bit in that d5-6 timeframe. In the end, the changes didn’t matter though. Squash city in all of the progs.

Yeah around 6 days out we were seeing between 10-20% of the euro ensemble members showing more significant phasing which is what we were aiming for to get this north. There was even one run in there which may have had more like 25-30%. But as long as those lobes never phased, this didn't have a chance. 

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, Zach’s Pop said:

That’s funny. At one time HM was welcome here. Sadly the METS left here can only look at model runs and tell us what to expect. Perhaps HM could send you a jock strap of his. Maybe you could grow into someday 

You don't sound like you want to be here....is there a reason to keep you around?

[CT Rain]

1 hour ago, Zach’s Pop said:

Maybe if your good your chickens will tell you what mountain torque is 

I can’t think of a worse poster.

[weathafella]

West is best...through 12/8:

BDL:  -4.0

ORH: -3.6

PVD: -1.7

BOS: -1.3

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, weathafella said:

West is best...through 12/8:

BDL:  -4.0

ORH: -3.6

PVD: -1.7

BOS: -1.3

Frigid month. No one will end AN with such a gentle mild up

[LurkerBoy]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Frigid month. No one will end AN with such a gentle mild up

How gentle you thinkin, DiT?

[Zach’s Pop]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You don't sound like you want to be here....is there a reason to keep you around?

Just to get updates for the EPS

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Frigid month. No one will end AN with such a gentle mild up

Mild up should wipe it out if not swing us positive imho.  We depend on last 7 days of December to pull us back down.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Ray continues to rake!  Nailing this season to date.

Well, lets see how the other 95% of the outlook goes. Always be leery of going for a gung ho December in an el nino. The mere fact that we've had chances this month speaks volumes of the what is in store the rest of the season imho. Don't melt if it takes a couple of weeks to get really full steam beyond the holidays...history tells us that. We should see more chances later this month and early January, though.