mahk_webstah Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 I say we institute kosher her e on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: There is a low chance the follow up wave may do something next week. But otherwise it’s not wintry looking. But NWS says the Euro has a coastal! That means sneaux!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 2 hours ago, weathafella said: By the time piggy sets in, we will have favorable modeling in the longer range. I’ve never seen such a bunch of folks over reacting..... I mentioned the same thing yesterday...It's pathetic actually. People saying that outlooks are going to bust because of something that is projected two weeks from now....???? And SnoSki claiming victory for a guy that lives in New Mexico, and claiming a complete Ratter incoming and Met Winter hasn't even started yet...let alone Climo Winter??? Same Sh*t each year....these people need to get a grip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Huge victory for raindance, shouldn't have doubted him. Huge winter bust a la 01/02 incoming. December is toast. Given tendency of winter patterns to stick, the entire winter could be over before it begins. Go back to New Jersey....most ridiculous post I've seen in a long time...and you post it on November 27th???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Wow. The projected MJO out of nowhere just dove into the COD! Bad that its not going through 1, but good that its not going through 2 3 and 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Wow. The projected MJO out of nowhere just dove into the COD! Bad that its not going through 1, but good that its not going through 2 3 and 4. Very uncertain long range to say the least..long range models will be all over the place..expect more flip flopping going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Wow. The projected MJO out of nowhere just dove into the COD! Bad that its not going through 1, but good that its not going through 2 3 and 4. What’s striking to me is the anomalous early season snow we got while we were in 4. COD really diminishes reliability of longer range forecasts if it happens I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 November 27th and people already December's coffin sized up and ready to be built. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: What’s striking to me is the anomalous early season snow we got while we were in 4. COD really diminishes reliability of longer range forecasts if it happens I think. In a similar vein, the North Pacific jet is forecast to both retract and shift towards the equator (think of retraction as an uncontrolled fire hose), which is typically associated with lower model skill. MJO 2,3,4 also favors the jet retraction/equatorward shift as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 What happened to the 12/3 storm I was promised? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: What happened to the 12/3 storm I was promised? Sounds like you fell for one of the oldest tricks in the book....counting on the ol' D7 snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 @donsutherland1and @IsothermAre both calling for colder than normal December’s in their very recently issued winter outlooks. So my hunch is they are going to be more right than wrong , and we will see long range modeling drastically change for Dec over the next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: @donsutherland1and @IsothermAre both calling for colder than normal December’s in their very recently issued winter outlooks. So my hunch is they are going to be more right than wrong , and we will see long range modeling drastically change for Dec over the next week or so. I would say based on my tenuous skill at beyond 7 days, the first couple of weeks have more potential for small model forecast errors, while the last two weeks have greater uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I would say based on my tenuous skill at beyond 7 days, the first couple of weeks have more potential for small model forecast errors, while the last two weeks have greater uncertainty. You don't say..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You don't say..... Relative to normal growing model errors with longer lead times. Think of it this way, when the jet becomes retracted and shifts south, that's when we tend to see model skill score drop outs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Relative to normal growing model errors with longer lead times. Think of it this way, when the jet becomes retracted and shifts south, that's when we tend to see model skill score drop outs. Oh ok, good explanation...thanks. I thought you were being funny above in that post. I very much agree, as I said earlier I feel there's going to be some flipping and flopping I believe as we go forward. And more so than normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 My man 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 3 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: I say we institute kosher her e on this board. I say ya lost your mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: In a similar vein, the North Pacific jet is forecast to both retract and shift towards the equator (think of retraction as an uncontrolled fire hose), which is typically associated with lower model skill. MJO 2,3,4 also favors the jet retraction/equatorward shift as well. Posted this elsewhere , saw this on one of your forecasters Twitter feed. So much for winters of yore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: My man Ah The ancient scroll of Rev Kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Ah The ancient scroll of Rev Kev. We’re there now. Thee , Yore, Now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Oh ok, good explanation...thanks. I thought you were being funny above in that post. I very much agree, as I said earlier I feel there's going to be some flipping and flopping I believe as we go forward. And more so than normal. I know, I realized that comment just made it sound like models get worse with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 2 hours ago, weathafella said: What’s striking to me is the anomalous early season snow we got while we were in 4. COD really diminishes reliability of longer range forecasts if it happens I think. it's an interesting observation, Jerry - not that you or anyone asked but my hunch is that the MJO was simply not really effecting the flow as much as it would later in the cold season when the gradients everywhere are approaching seasonal saturation, and thus the sources become more "instructive" for lack of better word. The simpler version is that when the gradients everywhere are weaker ... phases of these various indexes come and go with less apparent forcing signatures on the pattern. The steeper gradients of mid cold season have better integration of those forcing sources... November ...could kinda be construed as deep enough ...? It depends, on the season at hand. I think in this case, no. The gradient hasn't yet been very focused despite some recent Canadian/NP-GL-NE cold anomalies. I'm seeing a lot of fragmentation of L/W spaces and difficulty smoothing the Rosby constructs around the hemisphere still... Warm season vestigial hang-over perhaps... As for the MJO ... the WPO is positive and strengthening ...that is a tamp down on waves emerging in 6 --> 7 and onwards, and so as this MJO tries to punch out of oblivion in 8, it may be encountering some larger scaled destructive interference. I've long argued that the MJO's significance was conditional more so than instructive over the years, more of a modifier. What that means is, if the surrounding atmosphere supports its presentation on the flow, it may come out gang-busters and soar around the phase diagram at altitude. Then of course a big bomb does a megalopolis job and it's all the rage ...MJO, yay! But, when the surrounding medium is not, you get this meandering at low amplitude or tamp down inside the coherency envelope like we're seeing now. Granted ...this is all theoretical tipisms ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Sounds like you fell for one of the oldest tricks in the book....counting on the ol' D7 snowstorm. All hail the king Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Posted this elsewhere , saw this on one of your forecasters Twitter feed. So much for winters of yore. Remains to be seen if we can keep what's on the ground without a melt off. My lawn was almost back before this last event. I'd say GYX has a better shot at going wire to wire snow depth this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: it's an interesting observation, Jerry - not that you or anyone asked but my hunch is that the MJO was simply not really effecting the flow as much as it would later in the cold season when the gradients everywhere are approaching seasonal saturation, and thus the sources become more "instructive" for lack of better word. The simpler version is that when the gradients everywhere are weaker ... phases of these various indexes come and go with less apparent forcing signatures on the pattern. The steeper gradients of mid cold season have better integration of those forcing sources... November ...could kinda be construed as deep enough ...? It depends, on the season at hand. I think in this case, no. The gradient hasn't yet been very focused despite some recent Canadian/NP-GL-NE cold anomalies. I'm seeing a lot of fragmentation of L/W spaces and difficulty smoothing the Rosby constructs around the hemisphere still... Warm season vestigial hang-over perhaps... As for the MJO ... the WPO is positive and strengthening ...that is a tamp down on waves emerging in 6 --> 7 and onwards, and so as this MJO tries to punch out of oblivion in 8, it may be encountering some larger scaled destructive interference. I've long argued that the MJO's significance was conditional more so than instructive over the years. What that means is, if the surrounding atmosphere supports its presentation on the flow, it may come out gang-busters and soar around the phase diagram at altitude. But, when the surrounding medium is not, you get this meandering at low amplitude or tamp down inside the coherency envelope like we're seeing now. Granted ...this is all theoretical tipisms ha AMO tanking may be screwing with the tropical forcing weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: All hail the king Def still the best model out there. Even if it did get beat up a little bit from 48-72 in this past storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 1 hour ago, weathafella said: What’s striking to me is the anomalous early season snow we got while we were in 4. COD really diminishes reliability of longer range forecasts if it happens I think. Pivoting back to the North Pac Jet, it resided mainly in the equatorward and extension quadrants over the last two weeks, which favor cold events in the east. If you think about a strong Pacific jet you want it south to keep the East cold. Otherwise if you have a strong (extended), poleward jet you torch Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Remains to be seen if we can keep what's on the ground without a melt off. My lawn was almost back before this last event. I'd say GYX has a better shot at going wire to wire snow depth this winter. I just read a ski area report hailing the man cement snow as a godsend, basically what they put down as snowblowing snow early season to keep bases from melting off. Your fluff vaporized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Posted this elsewhere , saw this on one of your forecasters Twitter feed. So much for winters of yore. 1906 was a toaster bath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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