MJO812 Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: 2007-08 pattern on GEFS/GEPS It's not as bad as people are making it out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: It's not as bad as people are making it out to be. You may need some luck down there the next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 The dateline ridge keeps some very cold air in our part of NHEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 I thought the GEFS looked pretty tough at the end. I never like seeing those lower heights in AK. What an awful stretch. Hopefully we can get something even if it melts two days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 KBOS got about 30 inches in these 30 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Torchmas... the rains coming down.... Torchmas.... I’m watching it fall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Just see the seasonal forecasts turn into doggie poo. C'mon It’s lovely weather for a burly man or two. Giddy up giddy up giddy up this blows.. there’s no phucking snow... not even a pile here to show.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: KBOS got about 30 inches in these 30 days. Strong confluence over Greenland really helped that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Strong confluence over Greenland really helped that period. Conventional wisdom suggests that’s too far north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Conventional wisdom suggests that’s too far north? The confluence being modeled isn't close to that period is what I'm getting at. Could change, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 15, 2018 Author Share Posted December 15, 2018 Coastalwx starting to crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The confluence being modeled isn't close to that period is what I'm getting at. Could change, of course. Gotcha. Although the sensible wx modeled is kind of similar. It should be interesting to observe as it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Coastalwx starting to crack. Eh, I’m having fun with this terrible stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Let’s get all of us working with needle and thread..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just see the seasonal forecasts turn into doggie poo. C'mon It’s lovely weather for a burly man or two. Giddy up giddy up giddy up this blows.. there’s no phucking snow... not even a pile here to show.... This ridging can't stay (but baby it's warm outside) It's got to go away (but baby it's warm outside) This evening has been (maybe a front will drop in) Completely torchin (maybe we can make some ice?) Metfan will start to worry (The models always hurry) Zach's pop will be pacing the floor (Maybe it won't snow anymore) This warm air must gooooo Baby it's warm outside 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 That’s great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Euro shows the recipe for threading the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Euro shows the recipe for threading the needle. Betty Coc ker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Euro shows the recipe for threading the needle. 2 chances after the 23rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Look at the difference from the earlier image! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: I do think AGW has something to do with the broader forcing. A Nino with a positive SOI in December has never occurred according to Bluewave. It's screwing with the models and the average pattern. I think the Nino status quo will eventually win out though it's hard to know for sure. I hope the Gfs has a clue about that cutter next week, wouldn't mind seeing a potent system. I think it's too do with the fact that La Nina never really left. Remember we had a strong La Nina last winter that background state seems to be still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 So here was the look that gave all of us in New England a banner cold and snowy March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, leo2000 said: I think it's too do with the fact that La Nina never really left. Remember we had a strong La Nina last winter that background state seems to be still there. None of this is true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, leo2000 said: I think it's too do with the fact that La Nina never really left. Remember we had a strong La Nina last winter that background state seems to be still there. No, and no. It was weak, and we are no longer in la nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: None of this is true Well something is causing the MJO to be stuck in the warm phases?. Where is the weak El Nino when we need it. No strong La NIna? https://snowbrains.com/noaa-la-nina-fading-neutral-conditions-returning/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Right...was just gonna snark about that 10 Day Euro's attempt to blue-ball the hopefuls on Xmass Eve... Question is, how gullible. So, it's mid way thru the month... nearing 150 pages. If there's usefulness to this thread it's probably lost irrecoverably buried beneath reams of torment at this point. Maybe December Discussion part II is in order? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 One more-January and February 2005-deep winter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Right...was just gonna snark about that 10 Day Euro's attempt to blue-ball the hopefuls on Xmass Eve... Question is, how gullible. So, it's mid way thru the month... nearing 150 pages. If there's usefulness to this thread it's probably lost irrecoverably buried beneath reams of torment at this point. Maybe December Discussion part II is in order? Agreed - and maybe we can 'stick to the plan' a bit more and stay on track with weather patterns and less crying in the hot chocolate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Well something is causing the MJO to be stuck in the warm phases?. Where is the weak El Nino when we need it. No strong La NIna? https://snowbrains.com/noaa-la-nina-fading-neutral-conditions-returning/ El nino is weak, so sometimes the forcing variable. '68-'69 was all -PNA....but NAO was more cooperative. Tough stretch...it will pass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 EPS like other ensembles gives a small consolation of having the coldest air on our side of NHEM. It has a signal for snow in the 12/26-30 period as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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