RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Yeah end of the week is toast. When I responded to Chuck’s post about it over the weekend I thought we were dissecting 312 hours, not 112...lol. Yea, that was a head scratcher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Does anyone give a holler if I start a new thread, "December Discussion II" ... I have some new information re the status of things/winter but ...heh, putting a bulletin into 150 pages of obscuring froth isn't really worth it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Does anyone give a holler if I start a new thread, "December Discussion II" ... I have some new information re the status of things/winter but ...heh, putting a bulletin into 150 pages of obscuring froth isn't really worth it. Why do you really believe people scroll back 20 pages but not 90 #Wedontscroll that said December discussion II will be another disaster with no snow falling from sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zach’s Pop Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said: He's given you plenty of opportunity for you to counter his points but you have failed to do so. Lol, the guy is comparing this Niño to 97-98. There is NOTHING remotely similar and he fails to see that. And did you see his call last winter? If you reverse his map he nailed it. For some strange reason his forecast for New England is the same as last year, mild and dry. He really isn’t worth engaging 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Does anyone give a holler if I start a new thread, "December Discussion II" ... I have some new information re the status of things/winter but ...heh, putting a bulletin into 150 pages of obscuring froth isn't really worth it. Have at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 18 minutes ago, Zach’s Pop said: Lol, the guy is comparing this Niño to 97-98. There is NOTHING remotely similar and he fails to see that. And did you see his call last winter? If you reverse his map he nailed it. For some strange reason his forecast for New England is the same as last year, mild and dry. He really isn’t worth engaging Exactly!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Ray Guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 17 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Why do you really believe people scroll back 20 pages but not 90 #Wedontscroll that said December discussion II will be another disaster with no snow falling from sky Nah, people don't 'take things as seriously' in a 150 pages where the ballast of content ranges from tedious adversary nit picking to generally vapid twaddle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Does anyone give a holler if I start a new thread, "December Discussion II" ... I have some new information re the status of things/winter but ...heh, putting a bulletin into 150 pages of obscuring froth isn't really worth it. Remember to put "No Whining, Discussion Only" in the sub-title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 You weenies drove Will away with all the melts and complaining. Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You weenies drove Will away with all the melts and complaining. Congrats He’s in Buffalo. Probably lightning fires and table smashing with the rest of Bills mafia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: He’s in Buffalo. Probably lightning fires and table smashing with the rest of Bills mafia. Burning GEFS flags Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Looks like BN to N temps EPS which by late Dec / early Jan should yield winter storm threats anywhere north of NYC . This is a decent look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Looks like BN to N temps EPS which by late Dec / early Jan should yield winter storm threats anywhere north of NYC . This is a decent look Though I mostly don’t know what I’m talking about, would that map imply a gradient that would be good for a lot of us also with the possibility of re-development and storms slowing down due to the confluence to the north and northeast of us with high pressure over Greenland and a low out in the 50-50 position? Also a cold supply from high-pressure over North West Canada and a split flow from the trough in the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 I don’t think a 2m temperature pattern 2 weeks out on a given day means much.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: I don’t think a 2m temperature pattern 2 weeks out on a given day means much.... I mean even a +1 at ALB is plenty cold enough for snow on 1/1, especially averaged over 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: I don’t think a 2m temperature pattern 2 weeks out on a given day means much.... It certainly does. Gives you a good idea of pattern that week averaged out over 5 days which that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 idk if I'd call it "decent". I don't think I'd look at that and say "sign me up". I mean, it can obviously work out even with +2C, but the key is how we get there. We've reiterated the nina gradient look for days now, but that can work out snowy or it can work out mostly wet. The key will be where the mean confluence and thermal gradient set up. We can analyze it to death all we want, but it's near impossible to pin that down 2 weeks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It certainly does. Gives you a good idea of pattern that week averaged out over 5 days which that is Temperature patterns are not nearly as instructive vs 500 mb charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: Temperature patterns are not nearly as instructive vs 500 mb charts. To each their own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 18 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I’m just sort of talking out loud here, but sure it’s possible it could act like one. However I don’t think we are seeing that here. I think enough anomalies exist to have an effect. It’s just been temporarily interfered with by the MJO. There are other things at play too Scotty and Jer. For example, in our new background state, precip amounts are about double what they used to be. So let's say we use 1968-69 as an analog, which comes from a much drier era, if we had that same pattern in place (and it's an analog for this year) we can expect snowfall (and rainfall) amounts to possibly be 50-100% higher because of our new background state. Caution must be applied when using older analogs to adjust for the new climate in terms of storms being much juicier than they used to be and bombing out much more quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 18 hours ago, JBinStoughton said: 15-16 wasn’t that long ago Neither was 11-12 (though that was better further north thanks to the October 2011 snowstorm, but the rest of the season was a dud.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: There are other things at play too Scotty and Jer. For example, in our new background state, precip amounts are about double what they used to be. So let's say we use 1968-69 as an analog, which comes from a much drier era, if we had that same pattern in place (and it's an analog for this year) we can expect snowfall (and rainfall) amounts to possibly be 50-100% higher because of our new background state. Caution must be applied when using older analogs to adjust for the new climate in terms of storms being much juicier than they used to be and bombing out much more quickly. I think you are overdoing that. We have been averaging the same amount of precip give or take a few inches for the last 100 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think you are overdoing that. We have been averaging the same amount of precip give or take a few inches for the last 100 years. I think it's quite a bit more the further south you go. Down here we were in the lower 40s range between the 40s-70s and now its closer to 50 inches of rain per year (80s-00s or 90s-10s so far.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I think it's quite a bit more the further south you go. Down here we were in the lower 40s range between the 40s-70s and now its closer to 50 inches of rain per year (80s-00s or 90s-10s so far.) You also need to look at decadal cycles. We have had wet and dry 20-30 yr stretches. This year the pattern has features a lot of troughs in the east, and a wet pattern. A warmer atmosphere can hold more water, but even a 1C increase is only a 7% increase in water vapor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You also need to look at decadal cycles. We have had wet and dry 20-30 yr stretches. This year the pattern has features a lot of troughs in the east, and a wet pattern. A warmer atmosphere can hold more water, but even a 1C increase is only a 7% increase in water vapor. This year was so much more humid than anything that has happened here previously, it was almost unbearable and I was considering a move to Caribou Maine lol. I heard you dont get allergies up there. When it's very humid I can barely breathe even with the a/c running. Constant allergies. JFK this year had an astounding 42 75+ dew point days, their previous record was 24 from 1983. Prior to the 1980s the highest number of 75+ dew point days was 19, since then it has gotten into the lower 20s a few times, but never anything like the 42 we had this year. Almost double the previous record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Saw this this other day. Maybe there is something to the notion of precip increasing of late at least in terms of US average. May not be applicable on a regional level. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 6 hours ago, CoastalWx said: You also need to look at decadal cycles. We have had wet and dry 20-30 yr stretches. This year the pattern has features a lot of troughs in the east, and a wet pattern. A warmer atmosphere can hold more water, but even a 1C increase is only a 7% increase in water vapor. Obviously some localized variance, but say average WV is about 10 kg/m^2, that 7% increase is about 1 kg/m^2. Studies have shown around a 20% increase in precip for each 1 kg/m^2 additional WV. I know that was in the vicinity of the Harvey attribution study. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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