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December Discussion


NorEastermass128
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I agree overall with Tip. I think his point has merit. It’s also why the CPC changed some of the former ENSO years with the new SST climo. However, that is misleading because it’s quite possible that a cooler overall Earth acted as we think it should when anomalies are presented. So what was a moderate niño back then, is now weak....however it probably acted like a moderate niño. So to look back and say so and so year was a weak niño is not really fair imo. 

 

Anyways what is happening now is totally inteaseaosnal. Mjo is destructively interfering. I have to think that changes in January?

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20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Some will be, most likely...highest anomalies should be east, but everyone should do well.

I agree about the highest anomalies... also takes less total snowfall on the coastal plain to jack up that percent of normal anomalies than it does interior and mountains.  

But shouldn't be a surprise that Miller B's are favored over Miller A's for example.  Just depends if the redevelopment and bombing happens east of BOS or like near ACY.  

Hopefully all your confidence and thoughts pan out...this place will be unreadable if it's Jan 15th and not much has changed lol.

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49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I agree overall with Tip. I think his point has merit. It’s also why the CPC changed some of the former ENSO years with the new SST climo. However, that is misleading because it’s quite possible that a cooler overall Earth acted as we think it should when anomalies are presented. So what was a moderate niño back then, is now weak....however it probably acted like a moderate niño. So to look back and say so and so year was a weak niño is not really fair imo. 

 

Anyways what is happening now is totally inteaseaosnal. Mjo is destructively interfering. I have to think that changes in January?

Great post by Isotherm. He does believe it dies out.

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Isotherm 

 

 

Well, as the proverbial body count on the abyss floor seems to be increasing by the day, I continue to watch as models adjust to the discussed forcing mechanisms in the medium range. The NAO domain signal continues to improve, while concurrently, geopotential heights correct more positive (i.e., less severe troughing) in W North America w/ every new cycle. However, rather than recognize these important medium range corrections which indicate longer range inaccuracies, some choose to focus on the unstable and evolving LR. Even still, the LR model changes are now being detected as the jet retraction relaxes, and more upstream ridging resumes in a mere few days following the zonal/gradient look for 24th-27th. Nothing has changed from my stand-point. Transitional period 21/22nd, sufficiently cold thereafter for potential threat. Periods such as this are quite revealing as to who bases their thought processes principally on model regurgitation, and who does not.

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Isotherm 

 

 

Well, as the proverbial body count on the abyss floor seems to be increasing by the day, I continue to watch as models adjust to the discussed forcing mechanisms in the medium range. The NAO domain signal continues to improve, while concurrently, geopotential heights correct more positive (i.e., less severe troughing) in W North America w/ every new cycle. However, rather than recognize these important medium range corrections which indicate longer range inaccuracies, some choose to focus on the unstable and evolving LR. Even still, the LR model changes are now being detected as the jet retraction relaxes, and more upstream ridging resumes in a mere few days following the zonal/gradient look for 24th-27th. Nothing has changed from my stand-point. Transitional period 21/22nd, sufficiently cold thereafter for potential threat. Periods such as this are quite revealing as to who bases their thought processes principally on model regurgitation, and who does not.

Yep we said a couple of days ago an unstable reshuffling of the deck would result in LR chaos. Patience grasshoppers 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That kid is the most skilled seasonal forecaster that I have ever seen....I'll bet he even has seasonal NAO forecasting largely figured out.

Between Isotherm and Don we have 2 of the absolute best in the business. They have the same overall view of the winter save a couple nuances.

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I agree about the reshuffling. That should happen later this month into early January I think. I could be wrong, but it seemed isotherm and a few others were maybe more bullish for an earlier transition, but it should happen. To his model point, the tropics were seen coming a few weeks ago. That usually overrides a lot of the forcing from wave fluxes etc. But, I think now we are in a better state for constructive interference and should see some results into Jan. The pattern maybe gets better near Christmas, but I think I’d feel more comfortable after that for a better, but more stable regime. And yeah, isotherm has some great thoughts. It’s good to have someone like him.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Put it this way, I don’t think one person has an overall +AO and a SE ridge nina circulation in the last third of December. That did show up in guidance and yes you have to look at models for that. You adjust. However I think the longer term still stands. Hope I’m not wrong. 

If you are wrong you are out of my will son. 

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2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Hopefully. Should be a good amount inside the BM tracks without a -epo/+pna on roids, at least.

Special times for Jeff.

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Some will be, most likely...highest anomalies should be east, but everyone should do well.

Lower seasonal norms lend themselves

to greater anomolies.

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7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Put it this way, I don’t think one person had an overall +AO and a SE ridge nina circulation in the last third of December. That did show up in guidance and yes you have to look at models for that. You adjust. However I think the longer term still stands. Hope I’m not wrong. 

What do you make of raindancewx's analysis, he's basically comparing this year to 97/98 and shows everyone torching in January. 

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