December Discussion

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Greg said:

The ECMFWF is not the only model for prediction.  It's only one of the tools.

GL using anything outside eps or gefs and maybe some low scoring climo stuff in the LR. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

My only comment is long range at this point is utter voodoo and I believe will would concur 

i want to be clear that I am not trying to take away from the work folks are doing on LR forecasts , not at all. I just believe if a man as smart as Cohen thought he may have figured out the riddle to winter NAO in November and he was wrong, many others on social media could be more confident than the coming forecast verifications determine they should be .

Scott mentioned the Nina like look we’re seeing to, not that anyone would call for a Nina just that things are not clear going forward in any way .

i believe the NAO-AO stuff is voodoo like past 3 weeks as well

 

There are many x factors that come into play with atmospheric sciences and meteorologists understanding of atmospheric dynamics are constantly evolving.  Does anybody have a solid theory on how solar maximums and minimums effect global weather patterns?  For that matter does anybody have a true scientific grasp on stellar physics and the influences of the sun's electromagnetic perturbations?

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

My only comment is long range at this point is utter voodoo and I believe will would concur 

i want to be clear that I am not trying to take away from the work folks are doing on LR forecasts , not at all. I just believe if a man as smart as Cohen thought he may have figured out the riddle to winter NAO in November and he was wrong, many others on social media could be more confident than the coming forecast verifications determine they should be .

Scott mentioned the Nina like look we’re seeing to, not that anyone would call for a Nina just that things are not clear going forward in any way .

i believe the NAO-AO stuff is voodoo like past 3 weeks as well

 

I don't think long range is voodoo...if you're basing it off of Cohen...sure, he is not a good forecaster. He's a scientist. Difference.

I could name a few folks off of the top of my head that are pretty skilled. Even I have had a decent amount of success and I only started like 5 years ago....if you don't put the work in, then obviously its voo doo. My worst outlook was the super el nino, but even that offered some value with the mid atlantic blizzard.

Now long range NAO is still kind of voo doo...but there are indicators to look for. I think that Tom may have that figure out.

[SnoSki14]

7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a winter a pattern ... it's just not offering what folks want -

Bad luck then? The pattern has clearly been great for our southern neighbors. 

Regardless the real fun will start in about a month or so, but maybe something can sneak in before that.

24-26 window looks like the region's best shot, GEFS shows eastern ridging beyond that and into Jan.

[LibertyBell]

On 12/13/2018 at 9:03 AM, CoastalWx said:

I don't put up with stupidity. If you're going to be all cold and snow like my Dad, then go to accuweather. It's not always cold and snow, and you guys are just naive to everything that myself and others have said. 

Some of these people behave like they've never seen snow before in their entire lives sheesh.

It's not like 14-15 didn't happen and that was only a few years ago where winter was almost snowless through mid January and then it was one of the coldest and snowiest ones on record after that.

And aside from all that, most of these people just had a snowstorm a few weeks ago!  So even if December were completely snowless for them, they'd still be ahead of average!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Some of these people behave like they've never seen snow before in their entire lives sheesh.

It's not like 14-15 didn't happen and that was only a few years ago where winter was almost snowless through mid January and then it was one of the coldest and snowiest ones on record after that.

And aside from all that, most of these people just had a snowstorm a few weeks ago!  So even if December were completely snowless for them, they'd still be ahead of average!

I am fully prepared for a worst case scenario of going into mid January without much additional snowfall. I think its pretty unlikely, but I know its possible in the back of my mind.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Bad luck then? The pattern has clearly been great for our southern neighbors. 

Regardless the real fun will start in about a month or so, but maybe something can sneak in before that.

It's happened too often to call it bad luck.  This kind of pattern has happened before several times where areas both north and south get snowstorms while the middle gets spared.  Then again I wouldn't say you've gotten screwed since there was a significant snowstorm just last month.  Either way, even if you get shut out this month, you're still above average snowfall going into January.

[SnowGoose69]

Op Euro has nothing 23-25 tonight.  Does look like it’s developing something on the 25th south of the Oh Valley but given pattern it would probably cut.  The system on the 22nd is a massive digger with more cold air than this one.  May snow into the Deep South with that one and it could act as a 50/50 if something comes behind it 23-25th

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

It's happened too often to call it bad luck.  This kind of pattern has happened before several times where areas both north and south get snowstorms while the middle gets spared.  Then again I wouldn't say you've gotten screwed since there was a significant snowstorm just last month.  Either way, even if you get shut out this month, you're still above average snowfall going into January.

Early December was bad luck...this is just a bad pattern.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am fully prepared for a worst case scenario of going into mid January without much additional snowfall. I think its pretty unlikely, but I know its possible in the back of my mind.

Yes, that's why I was wondering about the last week of December vs mid-January scenario in terms of when the winter really gets going.  I agree we might get an isolated event before mid January but the meat of the winter will begin around Jan 20.

And people really need to look up weak el nino climatology, it seems like they want to lump them all together, but the fact is that you talked about a gradient pattern even before your outlook came out.  

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Early December was bad luck...this is just a bad pattern.

This is somewhat 1980s like.  We haven’t seen a December average marginally below average with little to no snow in a long time.  It’s generally been easier to get brutally cold and dry patterns the last 25 years than it has been to get near to slightly below normal and dry.  When we’ve averaged in that 0 to -2 range for 3-4 weeks since about 1993 we’ve generally scored somewhere 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Early December was bad luck...this is just a bad pattern.

Yep that storm was actually not that far from coming up the coast, and several models showed it becoming phased and doing so, the timing was a little off.  We ended up in a cold-dry, mild-wet pattern which was eerily reminiscent of the 80s lol

I find that when the timing goes bad it tends to stay bad for awhile (inertia?) until something big happens to reset everything (almost like a reboot).

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This is somewhat 1980s like.  We haven’t seen a December average marginally below average with little to no snow in a long time.  It’s generally been easier to get brutally cold and dry patterns the last 25 years than it has been to get near to slightly below normal and dry.  When we’ve averaged in that 0 to -2 range for 3-4 weeks since about 1993 we’ve generally scored somewhere 

I look at it this way....we didn't expect much snow in December...but the fact that its been so much colder than Dec 2014 is a very good sign....we are still ahead of that year, too because the Nov snows were more prolific than 2014. 

We are fine....just haven't maximized potential.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He’s saying that’s a good thing in the long run. And weakening of vortex’s isn’t like forcasting the r/s line at 72hr. It’s a big picture hemispheric thought process which affects sensible weather for several weeks after. Some folks are pretty good at the research but models always seem to rush punching the pv. 

That would the kind of big change I was thinking about that would change the pattern and get us out of this timing rut.

All that cold in Greenland is why I sometimes look for the temps at the Summit Camp Station which is on top of the Greenland Ice Cap, it's one of the coldest places in the northern hemisphere and can get close to -90.

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am fully prepared for a worst case scenario of going into mid January without much additional snowfall. I think its pretty unlikely, but I know its possible in the back of my mind.

I hope the wait isn't that long because then we'll only have a month or so for winter to deliver. 

And I highly doubt a 14/15 replica will be walking through those doors again.   

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I look at it this way....we didn't expect much snow in December...but the fact that its been so much colder than Dec 2014 is a very good sign....we are still ahead of that year, too because the Nov snows were more prolific than 2014. 

We are fine....just haven't maximized potential.

yep you're playing the long game.  In the short term we seem to be getting screwed, but long term this may pay dividends down the road.  On a positive note, it sure doesn't look like we'll have to "manufacture" our own cold air for storms in the second half of winter, the cold has already settled in.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

I hope the wait isn't that long because then we'll only have a month or so for winter to deliver. 

And I highly doubt a 14/15 pattern will be walking through those doors again.   

 I expect it to. Does it mean 100" in 30 days again, probably not....but I expect all hell to break loose.

[Ginx snewx]

Pretty much ugly according to our LR modeling.  Lets hope its wrong. Christmas snow might happen with a Miami miracle but all in all its AN and pretty dry after the day 7 cutter. 

[MJO812]

Remember when it use to snow in December ?

 

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Pretty much ugly according to our LR modeling.  Lets hope its wrong. Christmas snow might happen with a Miami miracle but all in all its AN and pretty dry after the day 7 cutter. 

Yep. Looks like crap. That fell apart quickly. I will say a lot of members weren't in agreement with the EPO.  It still has a gradient kind of look...just hope to be on the good side for some of this. Looking at the tropics, there seems to be a standing wave developing near 135E. That may be screwing us. You want it near the dateline.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

11 hours ago, dendrite said:

Snow is the one that's so far away
When I feel the dewpoints enter my veins
Never do I want to be cold again
And I don't remember why I did

Mesos raise my desire euro takes it away

Why the snow line so far away

No more shoveling in my life 

only winter season is in Jay

freezing cold soon to be locked away

breathe in breathe in (garage fumes)

puke pattern is modeled back again

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep. Looks like crap. That fell apart quickly. I will say a lot of members weren't in agreement with the EPO.  It still has a gradient kind of look...just hope to be on the good side for some of this. Looking at the tropics, there seems to be a standing wave developing near 135E. That may be screwing us. You want it near the dateline.

Saw that, hope is that LR modeling is in a chaotic state as the PV is attacked.  If not its marginal but not impossible to develop East Coast snowstorms.  This second half has a Dec 14 feel. Bryce will have to wait until Dad melts down to sled?

[Damage In Tolland]

Man, when Ginx mails it in for the month it’s never good. Hopefully just a blip . This place should be unreadable today once the warministas get up and start posting 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Man, when Ginx mails it in for the month it’s never good. Hopefully just a blip . This place should be unreadable today once the warministas get up and start posting 

? Hyperbolic  I just did a model recap

[Ginx snewx]

 Nino temps dropped a full degree Celcius. Goes to show we don't know sh it

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Saw that, hope is that LR modeling is in a chaotic state as the PV is attacked.  If not its marginal but not impossible to develop East Coast snowstorms.  This second half has a Dec 14 feel. Bryce will have to wait until Dad melts down to sled?

I’m already disappointed. He keeps asking me when it will snow again. There is nothing worse than this before the holidays. Hopefully we get something prior to Christmas. Certainly possible. 

[dendrite]

This has been great. Almost all of the snow and ice has melted or sublimated off the roof. Soon Santa will be able to get up there and install the new anemometers. A true Christmas miracle.

[OSUmetstud]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 Nino temps dropped a full degree Celcius. Goes to show we don't know sh it

the weekly data is like +1c in all regions and it has been for some time now. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I’m already disappointed. He keeps asking me when it will snow again. There is nothing worse than this before the holidays. Hopefully we get something prior to Christmas. Certainly possible. 

Brings back memories of road trips as far as the Berks sleds in tow to find the kids snow. You dont know how many times I drove 20 minutes out of SRI to Foster to go sledding on a beautiful hill. I see that hill and kids sledding every once in a while as its near my house, brings back memories. Dont blink man it  goes by faster than you ever could think. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, dendrite said:

This has been great. Almost all of the snow and ice has melted or sublimated off the roof. Soon Santa will be able to get up there and install the new anemometers. A true Christmas miracle.

Instruments! Hopefully you don't end up with 2 inches of glop that freezes solid with the Arctic front.