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December Discussion


NorEastermass128
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5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Am I the only one who doesn’t feel like things are setting up all that great? Long range looks okay to poor, spending on what guidance you use, and our next “threat” is always 10 days away.

Hopefully we can change the look after the new year 

2014-2015 didn’t really start until the end of January, so there’s that. 

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Gfs now joins the Euro with the cutter for next week. 

There's not a lot of positive signs out there, and I don't think we'll be seeing much of a winter pattern for a long time. 

If this winter follows 14/15 or 02/03 then it's likely that it won't return until mid January. 

Glad we don’t live there 

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11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Gfs now joins the Euro with the cutter for next week. 

There's not a lot of positive signs out there, and I don't think we'll be seeing much of a winter pattern for a long time. 

If this winter follows 14/15 or 02/03 then it's likely that it won't return until mid January. 

It's a winter a pattern ... it's just not offering what folks want -

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My only comment is long range at this point is utter voodoo and I believe will would concur 

i want to be clear that I am not trying to take away from the work folks are doing on LR forecasts , not at all. I just believe if a man as smart as Cohen thought he may have figured out the riddle to winter NAO in November and he was wrong, many others on social media could be more confident than the coming forecast verifications determine they should be .

Scott mentioned the Nina like look we’re seeing to, not that anyone would call for a Nina just that things are not clear going forward in any way .

i believe the NAO-AO stuff is voodoo like past 3 weeks as well

 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Gfs now joins the Euro with the cutter for next week. 

There's not a lot of positive signs out there, and I don't think we'll be seeing much of a winter pattern for a long time. 

If this winter follows 14/15 or 02/03 then it's likely that it won't return until mid January. 

Just like last storm was suppose fto be s cutter and Sunday also.

Stop hugging the models

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11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

My only comment is long range at this point is utter voodoo and I believe will would concur 

i want to be clear that I am not trying to take away from the work folks are doing on LR forecasts , not at all. I just believe if a man as smart as Cohen thought he may have figured out the riddle to winter NAO in November and he was wrong, many others on social media could be more confident than the coming forecast verifications determine they should be .

Scott mentioned the Nina like look we’re seeing to, not that anyone would call for a Nina just that things are not clear going forward in any way .

i believe the NAO-AO stuff is voodoo like past 3 weeks as well

 

Snow is the one that's so far away
When I feel the dewpoints enter my veins
Never do I want to be cold again
And I don't remember why I did

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2 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

DuZ05p5WoAEKy_m.jpg

 

No surprise the models are having a hard time right now because we are at the beginning of a polar vortex weakening. 

I wouldn't be overly concerned about something 282 hours out when models can't predict about 3-4 days from now. Patience.

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24 minutes ago, Greg said:

I wouldn't be overly concerned about something 282 hours out when models can't predict about 3-4 days from now. Patience.

He’s saying that’s a good thing in the long run. And weakening of vortex’s isn’t like forcasting the r/s line at 72hr. It’s a big picture hemispheric thought process which affects sensible weather for several weeks after. Some folks are pretty good at the research but models always seem to rush punching the pv. 

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30 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He’s saying that’s a good thing in the long run. And weakening of vortex’s isn’t like forcasting the r/s line at 72hr. It’s a big picture hemispheric thought process which affects sensible weather for several weeks after. Some folks are pretty good at the research but models always seem to rush punching the pv. 

Oh I know, I'm very well aware of what he's looking at but still my coment stands.  When you look out that far, honestly, it can't have as much merit.  At least not until I or you see much more verification from other reliable model sources.

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