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December Discussion


NorEastermass128
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9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

We don’t want to much block...or it’s congratulations VA, NC again.   Give us a             -EPO/favorable pacific and a lil blocking and we can work with that. 

That's not necessarily true...especially with an RNA. Take a look at February 1969.

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's not necessarily true...especially with an RNA. Take a look at February 1969.

Not to jump in but if it's any help ... the difference is speed contamination.

Velocity saturated flows do not do well with blocking.  Deep heights over Manatoba western Ontario with a retrogade near D. Straight creates the old 80 kts everywhere deall...  with sheared S/W lost in the windy maelstrom of powerful planetary scaled L/Ws.. 

In 1969, the flow relaxed everywhere under a west based -NAO (granted..) but it was former circumstance that allowed slow movement/retrograde structures to coalesce the way did near New England.

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Take a look at 2010...  it can hurt sometimes if it’s too much.   NAO is overated imo.  

 

Sure there are times like 69 when it’s helped make things even better, but I’d rather not have too much block..some block, sure.  But not too much.

I understand it can hurt sometimes...that was your original point. It's not ideal, but if I had to choose between no blocking and Feb 2010, I'd take Feb 2010 in a heartbeat. You don't seem to get that.

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to jump in but if it's any help ... the difference is speed contamination.

Velocity saturated flows do not do well with blocking.  Deep heights over Manatoba western Ontario with a retrogade near D. Straight creates the old 80 kts everywhere deall...  with sheared S/W lost in the windy maelstrom of powerful planetary scaled L/Ws.. 

In 1969, the flow relaxed everywhere under a west based -NAO (granted..) but it was former circumstance that allowed slow movement/retrograde structures to coalesce the way did near New England.

True..yes.

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Oh I get that totally...but that’s just my opinion on too much NAO. 

If I had to choose between MAJOR blocking  or a favorable pacific..I take favorable pacific/-EPO every time...but that’s just me.  

 

Sure, if everything lines up perfectly, and the flow slows like Tip eluded to, then sure it can enhance things no doubt.  But I’ll take my chances with a favorable pacific..without much in the way of NAO...

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10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh I get that totally...but that’s just my opinion on too much NAO. 

If I had to choose between MAJOR blocking  or a favorable pacific..I take favorable pacific/-EPO every time...but that’s just me.  

 

Sure, if everything lines up perfectly, and the flow slows like Tip eluded to, then sure it can enhance things no doubt.  But I’ll take my chances with a favorable pacific..without much in the way of NAO...

Pacific isn’t that favorable in a gradient pattern. You more or less need some luck too. I guess I understand where you are coming from, but beware being on the wrong side. 

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28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's not necessarily true...especially with an RNA. Take a look at February 1969.

That was quite the storm back in February, 1969.  I remember trudging through the drifts from the subway stop to the Sears warehouse in Dorchester where I was a catalog buyer at the time.  I wonder if that was the storm that Don Kent severely underestimated, predicting flurries or just a chance of snow?

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5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

That was quite the storm back in February, 1969.  I remember trudging through the drifts from the subway stop to the Sears warehouse in Dorchester where I was a catalog buyer at the time.  I wonder if that was the storm that Don Kent severely underestimated, predicting flurries or just a chance of snow?

What you just described sounds a little more like the Blizzard of 1978.

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15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh I get that totally...but that’s just my opinion on too much NAO. 

If I had to choose between MAJOR blocking  or a favorable pacific..I take favorable pacific/-EPO every time...but that’s just me.  

 

Sure, if everything lines up perfectly, and the flow slows like Tip eluded to, then sure it can enhance things no doubt.  But I’ll take my chances with a favorable pacific..without much in the way of NAO...

Yea, agreed..

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pacific isn’t that favorable in a gradient pattern. You more or less need some luck too. I guess I understand where you are coming from, but beware being on the wrong side. 

Very true.

There’s never the one size fits all set up as you obviously know...I look at it as a marriage of sorts...different things in different quantities in different set ups...can produce, or Not produce?? 

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23 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

That was quite the storm back in February, 1969.  I remember trudging through the drifts from the subway stop to the Sears warehouse in Dorchester where I was a catalog buyer at the time.  I wonder if that was the storm that Don Kent severely underestimated, predicting flurries or just a chance of snow?

Yeah...not sure if Kent issued a bad forecast for 1969, but he had major updating to do for the 1978 storm.  As others have said, Harvey really scored on that one and cemented his place in history.

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16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Very true.

There’s never the one size fits all set up as you obviously know...I look at it as a marriage of sorts...different things in different quantities in different set ups...can produce, or Not produce?? 

I’ll preface this by saying I’m not being negative. Just saying it could be a few inches of snow—>cutter—>few inches of snow—> cutter. We don’t know yet. We will have some cold air to play with so that’s good.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll preface this by saying I’m not being negative. Just saying it could be a few inches of snow—>cutter—>few inches of snow—> cutter. We don’t know yet. We will have some cold air to play with so that’s good.

Lol, it’s all good Scott. :-).

 

Are you referring to the winter as a whole above, or the time around and just after the holidays??  

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