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December Discussion


NorEastermass128
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Man I hope we get some snow before Christmas.  I really like the +PNA pattern we are going into, should favor an earlier phase and a further south phase near the benchmark more so than in the Maritimes.  The GFS has been siding with the EURO on a later phase, let's see what the NAM says tomorrow at the 12z cycle, it will be in range by then.

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9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Let me know how that works out for you. 

Truth be told I'm not sold on a gradient pattern, GEFS don't really see that and it would be very unusual to have it during a Nino. 

But if there is one, then it could just as easily torch those further north especially if the troughing sets up out west. I'd be comfortable if I lived in VT or ME.

Not gonna lie, this reads like someone is trying to find anyway not to have SNE snow...  "I don't see the gradient pattern but if it's there then go to NNE."

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I'm really amazed at this non-nino look. It's not just a flash in the pan either. It looks like the ridge may retro due a dateline position which is definitely nina like. It also means we may be playing with fire. definitely may turn into a latitude deal. I just hope that ridge doesn't retro too far west.

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I'll take 6z GFS for Christmas please.

I mean these runs are incredible.  I thought this was a slam dunk for a 1-2" torching cutter and now we might see like a tenth or two of rain followed by accumulating snow on Monday into Tuesday?  

The season that keeps finding a way to go cold and snowy since October. 

FV3 GFS at 6z is a holiday miracle for many in New England.

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro wants none of the GFS next week and it seems like the 6z took a step in the direction. Still time for that, but right now I wouldn't expect much at all. At least we thaw out for a few days. 

The torch/relaxation the euro wanted is now a 2-3 day +5. 

Then we Xmas of yore. :grinch:

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Let me know how that works out for you. 

Truth be told I'm not sold on a gradient pattern, GEFS don't really see that and it would be very unusual to have it during a Nino. 

But if there is one, then it could just as easily torch those further north especially if the troughing sets up out west. I'd be comfortable if I lived in VT or ME.

There won’t be one. Model huggers are struggling right now because the EPS, which was dumping the trough into the SW is now leaning away from that. It is changing and once it gets to where those who have nailed the pattern have said it will. There will not be a southeast ridge and the gradient talk will be all gone, just like the two week torch pattern is now called a few day thaw. Model huggers are struggling right now. Going to be a tough few weeks for them 

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1 minute ago, Zach’s Pop said:

There won’t be one. Model huggers are struggling right now because the EPS, which was dumping the trough into the SW is now leaning away from that. It is changing and once it gets to where those who have nailed the pattern have said it will. There will not be a southeast ridge and the gradient talk will be all gone, just like the two week torch pattern is now called a few day thaw. Model huggers are struggling right now. Going to be a tough few weeks for them 

Enjoy the rain, it's the only rain you've got. 

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro wants none of the GFS next week and it seems like the 6z took a step in the direction. Still time for that, but right now I wouldn't expect much at all. At least we thaw out for a few days. 

 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

We already have gone through this. You still don't get it.

You were closing the shades for a couple of weeks. Now in your own words it’s a few days of a thaw. It will be ok son. Maybe Santa can bring you a new subscription to The EPS. Are The Really That Good??

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Enjoy the rain, it's the only rain you've got. 

Scott, I’m 24 years old. I’m looking at models and listening to mets. More than just in this forum. Don’t treat me like a kid. I can take roasting but please, I’m putting the work in.

the relaxation is not what you claimed. Not a shot at you, just me stating what I see. 

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1 minute ago, LurkerBoy said:

Scott, I’m 24 years old. I’m looking at models and listening to mets. More than just in this forum. Don’t treat me like a kid. I can take roasting but please, I’m putting the work in.

the relaxation is not what you claimed. Not a shot at you, just me stating what I see. 

You're weenie. As such you are treated as one.

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1 minute ago, Zach’s Pop said:

Enjoy your EPS. It’s the only model you look at.

You do realize the GEFS moved towards that right? 

As I stated numerous times, it's a relaxation not a torch. Yes close the shades because the pattern starting a few days ago is hostile to snow. Myself, Will, Don S and multiple people have said this.  Post 12/25 and even that isn't a given. Keep the faith though I guess. 

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It appeared to me the Euro trended NW slightly ... the last four cycles of that model have done so - the trend  

I think ... for how little that's worth.. heh ...  we are not likely to see a much better phase than we are already seeing? But, we could still pick up a wishy-washy ICON type deal out of this - more below.

Firstly, the previous Euro trough handling, and it's pallid surface reflection,  were all due east of the Carolinas, as little as two day's worth of cycles ago.  As of last night, it clips CC ... So the trend is clad.

Forgetting the Euro for a moment ...  the flow is probably too fast to really allow a proficient phase.  Stranger things have probably happened... but that speed means less time for the N/stream to get involved and bypasses. However, the larger scaled synoptic circulation gets a little steeper in a scenario where the rising PNA means more backside western ridge correction - and it can be subtle.

To summarize ... the best possibility to get cold rain to maybe flip to some Holiday spirit would be for the southern stream quasi closed low/deep layer trajectory to work around a more N motion along the eastern seaboard, if 'perhaps' related to PNA adjustment.  The GFS seems to already want to do this to some degree with ( :yikes: ) some lesser dependable model types biting hard. 

Long shot but the only shot...

By the way, that parallel GFS run was a down right Holiday dream for N of NYC ... There's three snows between early on the 23rd through early on the 26th...  with blue air flurries in between

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Somebody dig up Will's summation post from yesterday.  

It's all going according to plan.  The pattern is currently hostile for snow...doesn't mean we can't sneak an event in this hostile pattern.  The pattern becomes more favorable after 12/25.  If the cold dumps into the Plains initially, the EC risks a cutter around the 12/25 change period.  Thereafter, we should get more chances.  

That sound about right??

 

 

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13 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Scott, I’m 24 years old. I’m looking at models and listening to mets. More than just in this forum. Don’t treat me like a kid. I can take roasting but please, I’m putting the work in.

the relaxation is not what you claimed. Not a shot at you, just me stating what I see. 

:weenie:

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Let me know how that works out for you. 

Truth be told I'm not sold on a gradient pattern, GEFS don't really see that and it would be very unusual to have it during a Nino

But if there is one, then it could just as easily torch those further north especially if the troughing sets up out west. I'd be comfortable if I lived in VT or ME.

Not if you did your homework.....this is a meager el nino, so December RNA is not at all unexpected....will it become a seasonal fixture, probably not....but it is what it is.

Enjoy the gradient.

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You do realize the GEFS moved towards that right? 

As I stated numerous times, it's a relaxation not a torch. Yes close the shades because the pattern starting a few days ago is hostile to snow. Myself, Will, Don S and multiple people have said this.  Post 12/25 and even that isn't a given. Keep the faith though I guess. 

At the end of the run maybe but not around Christmas. You beloved EPS keep dumping a trough into the SW in the 15 day period than back off as it moves up in time. Did it again last night. Sorry you can’t admit that but hug away. Many ensemble members run storms up the coast and have no gradient look unless you want to call east vs west a gradient. And while all this is going on the PV is getting attacked daily and how that plays out will be the deciding factor on late December and early January. 

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23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You're weenie. As such you are treated as one.

 

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

:weenie:

Yo...the fact that any of us are wasting our time on this website makes us all weenies.

The fact that some on here love using that term for the less experienced is a weird thing that is a tool of social positioning that is most commonly seen in middle school boys. It is used to make yourself feel better about how little you know/can control. A big boys weather club! 

Scott, you whiffed this one while the “weenies” who remained optimistic were correct. I’m sorry if this pokes a hole in that very visible ego, but thems the breaks!

god bless us one and all

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