powderfreak Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 3 hours ago, OceanStWx said: I still shake my head when I think about how it felt like mid-winter up there just prior to Halloween. I guess you were the pattern change we needed. Having drinks with a BTV Met while -SN accumulated during the day in October and then I think it was ripping out the morning after we tossed a couple back. Winter never looked back after that Weather Conference. That was also when SNE had TORs flying everywhere...good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 20 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: We're doing alright, so much better than last year. This system was disappointing compared to what it could have been, just a bit too far offshore. Ended up with 4". We have about 32" on the year so far, with about 14 or 15" on the ground. Nice start to the season. Its only just begun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Its only just begun I hope so, the patterns that have benefited you guys the past few years havent been the best here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The table is set in the 0z NAM. Just need the northern stream to show up and that gets fantastic in a hurry The dewpoint drop is impressive at the end of the run....we need the dgex to show us the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Boston SSTs as of yesterday are the coldest in years. Should be helpful on marginal situations later this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 21 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I hope so, the patterns that have benefited you guys the past few years havent been the best here. We extend an olive branch to Canada and hope to share our wealth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 We mentioned the 939 Greenland LP the other day as an influence on the evolution of the weekend. Hello Maine HP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 A Tippy subsume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Well thats a horse of a different color now aint it. Congrats Dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Heh .. The problem is that in both American agencies... the CDC and CPC, the PNA is rising smartly through the next seven days That places a bit of a signal in/around early next week anyway over Eastern America I see it as possible that shortly after that wave comes off the Pacific in 48 hours+ that Western Ridge in the backside corrects towards more amplitude and if that's the case that northern stream subsequently digs into the lakes at a steeper slope; that changes the landscape a bit in a hurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Heh .. The problem is that in both American agencies... the CDC and CPC, the PNA is rising smartly through the next seven days That places is a bit of a signal in/around early next week anyway. I see it is possible that shortly after that wave comes off the Pacific in 48 hours+ that Western Ridge in the backside correct towards more amplitude and if that's the case that northern stream digs into the lakes at a steeper slope and that changes the landscape a bit in a hurry If somehow Monday was able to produce a snow event, it would be somewhat reminiscent of the December 11, 2002 storm....that was an interior wet snow event that occurred with a putrid pattern under extremely marginal airmass. ORH county had 6-10 inches in that. The only difference in that one is it did not have the northern stream diving in like the GFS shows, so there was no backside inverted trough stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Tuesday if as depicted on the GFS would be wind whipped morning snow with falling temps during the day. Deep deep winter like for a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 I could actually see this correct in the next 24 to 48 hours into a much cleaner phase if indeed the Nstream dives in more aggressively as a correction. In that model ... cold air gets entrained in the mid levels - fascinating dynamical system like you're supposed to get December go wonder I just see that all as not impossible and seeing as we've been sort of on course towards impossibility it's nice to see any possibility at all I don't know if that makes any sense. Anyway it's not usually far-fetched with such a dramatic PNA rise going on… We may just have yet to see the models correct over North America Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 If anyone is concerned Jerrys Elephant is across the pond Tips correct full phase is 18 hrs later, 200 miles in 120 hrs is well with error, wouldn't take a lot of hemispheric changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Mm interesting. A little closer to phasing… It's been sort of trend by inches for several runs. But the bigger correction that I was thinking (if so) probably wouldn't come until 48 hours because it's a rapid fast flow scenario where whatever gets ejected off the pacific into the physical soundings moves quite rapidly across the continent "maybe" benefiting from a robust ridge correction in the west ... We're not there yet but this run illustrates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If somehow Monday was able to produce a snow event, it would be somewhat reminiscent of the December 11, 2002 storm....that was an interior wet snow event that occurred with a putrid pattern under extremely marginal airmass. ORH county had 6-10 inches in that. The only difference in that one is it did not have the northern stream diving in like the GFS shows, so there was no backside inverted trough stuff. You mean like that 00z ICON? ... I am less familiar with the specifics on the December 2002 take a look tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 GFS is dropping like a 5-spot on me early next week....kkkk... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: You mean like that 00z ICON? ... I am less familiar with the specifics on the December 2002 take a look tomorrow Finally looking at this...and while probably not likely, I agree that we shouldn't sleep on a late blooming miller B east here on Sunday...see what the EURO does shortly.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Euro actually moved slightly later with the phase.....def. long shot, but its the only shot in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Perhaps people will give props to gfs if this works out. this looks to have potential slower moving potential wet snow lets see if the rising pna relays to a better ridge and earlier dip and phase of N Stream would this not go bonkers in a early phase scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Looks like the coldest night of the season so far at Pit2 last night....local pws down to 2.3* at 5:00a.m. and even some -1 and -2's showing up two towns over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Pretty good concordance on GEFS and eps-could be a snowy 11-15 in a glad we live here pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Pretty good concordance on GEFS and eps-could be a snowy 11-15 in a glad we live here pattern. qpf concerns loom large in GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 38 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: qpf concerns loom large in GC. God blesses his country with qpf. It’s just a very big country so his people must learn to share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 58 minutes ago, weathafella said: Pretty good concordance on GEFS and eps-could be a snowy 11-15 in a glad we live here pattern. Looks like a north of NYC pattern . Deep deep snows but none for Snoski Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Looks like a north of NYC pattern . Deep deep snows but none for Snoski I'd be more confident in a general gradient line from AQW-Brian. Not to say southern areas won't get some--but generally I'd put the gradient quite a bit further north than your NYC thought. Hopefully you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Damn it's cold. -16F BML -13F HIE -13F MVL My car says -10F in the driveway. Fukking icebox start to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 19 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'd be more confident in a general gradient line from AQW-Brian. Not to say southern areas won't get some--but generally I'd put the gradient quite a bit further north than your NYC thought. Hopefully you're right. Why? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Looks like a north of NYC pattern . Deep deep snows but none for Snoski Let me know how that works out for you. Truth be told I'm not sold on a gradient pattern, GEFS don't really see that and it would be very unusual to have it during a Nino. But if there is one, then it could just as easily torch those further north especially if the troughing sets up out west. I'd be comfortable if I lived in VT or ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Let me know how that works out for you. Truth be told I'm not sold on a gradient pattern, GEFS don't really see that and it would be very unusual to have it during a Nino. But if there is one, then it could just as easily torch those further north especially if the troughing sets up out west. I'd be comfortable if I lived in VT or ME. GEFS have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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