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December Discussion


NorEastermass128
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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Man imagine this place if we get some cutters with the ridging in the east, after Christmas. Legit chance too. I’m going to be sitting here smiling like that fat kid in the movie “Stand By Me.” The one who made everyone puke after eating the pies. Just sitting there, laughing and smiling as everyone pukes and cries. 

Be careful there.  If it goes the other way, you might want to take some time away from the board. :lol:

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

How so? They take their SLP products and verify them against modeled and observed. Nothing subjective about it.

Way more objective than NWS forecasters that issued the warnings deciding what number of trees down verifies their SVR.

I guess so, I have seen WPC forecasts change shift by shift but if you say so it must be. I missed the day 5 notation too, thought it covered all periods from day 1 to 10

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

I guess so, I have seen WPC forecasts change shift by shift but if you say so it must be. I missed the day 5 notation too, thought it covered all periods from day 1 to 10

Nah, they have each period if you want to see it. This would be the verification of the 12z product (coming out a few hours before that) for day 5. So on par with model lead times.

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

The problem here is that people perceive the term wintry meaning all snow all the time. Jerry nailed it just didn't snow. I mean top 5 coldest Nov 12th to today period from DC to Maine with many top 1, as far as snow goes some no but that's not what some here want to hear, but it was still very much a winter air mass . Perhaps it will snow in the warmer regime and melt quickly, some love that others not so much. 

That probably goes to the reaction around here. A cold but relatively snowless stretch followed by a relaxation for about a week makes it feel worse than it actually is. 

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That probably goes to the reaction around here. A cold but relatively snowless stretch followed by a relaxation for about a week makes it feel worse than it actually is. 

I've said it a million times back to the eastern days, for 95% of the forum it is about snow and to a lesser extent, snowpack. Cold without snow or snow on the ground is pretty useless to most on here so it doesn't get as much attention. 

From an objective standpoint though, the cold has been prolific the last month. 

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7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That probably goes to the reaction around here. A cold but relatively snowless stretch followed by a relaxation for about a week makes it feel worse than it actually is. 

 

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I've said it a million times back to the eastern days, for 95% of the forum it is about snow and to a lesser extent, snowpack. Cold without snow or snow on the ground is pretty useless to most on here so it doesn't get as much attention. 

From an objective standpoint though, the cold has been prolific the last month. 

The frost is deep now without snow cover which could be a problem down the road

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I've said it a million times back to the eastern days, for 95% of the forum it is about snow and to a lesser extent, snowpack. Cold without snow or snow on the ground is pretty useless to most on here so it doesn't get as much attention. 

From an objective standpoint though, the cold has been prolific the last month. 

The deeper into the forecast area you got up here, the more impressive it became. Coldest Novies for some coops. 

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37 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

The problem here is that people perceive the term wintry meaning all snow all the time. Jerry nailed it just didn't snow. I mean top 5 coldest Nov 12th to today period from DC to Maine with many top 1, as far as snow goes some no but that's not what some here want to hear, but it was still very much a winter air mass . Perhaps it will snow in the warmer regime and melt quickly, some love that others not so much. 

Capture.JPG

Don't have Farmington co-op for Dec, but for Nov. 11-30, this year ranks #2, about a half degree behind 1978 and a whisker ahead of 1894.

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2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Scott you're a Pro, and I certainly respect that because I myself am not a Pro Met...and I know you know what to look for, but it sure seems to me that the EPS and the Op have been struggling more so than before...and are not quite what they used to be.  That's my opinion, and we can be on opposite sides on this, but I'm just not as impressed overall with the Euro as I used to be.

 

True story:  Had the opportunity on Thanksgiving to talk personally with Guy at one of my buddies house that was a Pro MET who works on Mt. Washington, and I brought this very point up to him, and he said he feels that when they tweaked it/updated the Euro the last time, he agreed it's not as good as it used to be...he said whatever they did to it, made it worse(his words).  This young guy knew his stuff, and is going for his PHD so he can teach Atmospheric science at a University.

Objectively though this just isn't true. The Euro is a better model than it used to be. The only difference may be that other models are also getting better. For every Euro whiff, you can probably find a model that didn't vs. 10 years ago.

4 hours ago, Spanks45 said:

Battle brewing between GFS and its son....if my memory is correct, I believe the FV3 was too far south for the November 15th storm in the 3-5 day period. Just something to keep an eye on as we head further into winter...

The FV3 continues to have a progressive bias, so you will see south (or fast, missed phase) solutions. 

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I have lurked on this site and the old Eastern site for years. I have rarely posted because my knowledge of weather leans toward the level of The Farmers Almanac. And perhaps mistaken faith in this type of forecast.

http://mysterious-hills.blogspot.com/2009/12/greylock-was-his-barometer-levi-beebe.html

But with all the nervousness here with the lack of snow, I feel I might be to blame. The reason being that my snow blower is all tuned up and ready to rip. Therefore causing the darth of snow. Sorry:poster_oops:

 

 

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

I think there were a couple of posts about 3 weeks, punting Dec, torches etc but in most part its this upcoming weekend thats starts it but as we thought there are some deep cold days sparsed in between. seems very very typical of Dec to me . I don't think about deep winter down here until the solstice, anything else before is gravy.

I did post a day or two ago that I was close to punting December.  Backing off that a bit now, but still hedging BN for snowfall

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There was a period in the early 2000s where the euro was seemingly lightyears ahead of the mrf and ggem in the medium range. The euro was praised for frequently seeing a storm while the other models had a weak wave over Bermuda. The other models struggled much more with phasing and cyclogenesis back then while the euro was ahead of the curve. Us weenies didn’t even have euro QPF back then...just the rough 24hr h5 gph, h85 temps, slp, etc. If the euro had a low anywhere in the ballpark of the northeast while the other models were flat it would be a win for the euro. 

Now we have 4 runs per day with all kinds of variables at super high resolution and we expect the models to be damn near perfect 5 days out. We nitpick every QPF and 2m temp contour around every hill. Years ago everything was coarse and we had to use interpretation. The AVN would give everyone a piece of powderfreak’s upslope with a huge swath of 0.01” every 6hrs. The forecaster had to know that that was BS east of the higher terrain. So we hold the models to a higher standard now simply because they are so much better than they used to be. And like Chris said, to some extent the other models have bridged much of the error gap with the euro. So it is close enough now where there are times where it flat out loses rather than 2001 when it would still win but just not win by as much. 

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Just now, weathafella said:

Your melt kicking off 2015 is HOF worthy.  Do it again and see if we get that lucky!

We all thought it. Stupid s/w going to kick out the soon to be blizzard. And then you had ginx saying how you can toboggan on 2” of snow as kids hit rocks and go flying off into trees.

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5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I think I’m one of the few spots on the EC north of NC that hasn’t seen >1” of snow yet. 

Way up and a bit in 

la epic to la suck

we kno it’s early but the way the pendulum often swings back and forth it’s no bueno to have 5” of snow after 5 weeks of a favorable pattern that was a few weeks earlier than needed

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