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December Discussion


NorEastermass128
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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I’m not talking  about one event. I’m talking the hemispheric look after day 7. It was a warm look and that’s what we will have overall. Like multiple Mets said. I don’t read and rip the euro, but given its skill set I know what to look for. 

Scott you're a Pro, and I certainly respect that because I myself am not a Pro Met...and I know you know what to look for, but it sure seems to me that the EPS and the Op have been struggling more so than before...and are not quite what they used to be.  That's my opinion, and we can be on opposite sides on this, but I'm just not as impressed overall with the Euro as I used to be.

 

True story:  Had the opportunity on Thanksgiving to talk personally with Guy at one of my buddies house that was a Pro MET who works on Mt. Washington, and I brought this very point up to him, and he said he feels that when they tweaked it/updated the Euro the last time, he agreed it's not as good as it used to be...he said whatever they did to it, made it worse(his words).  This young guy knew his stuff, and is going for his PHD so he can teach Atmospheric science at a University.

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7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Scott you're a Pro, and I certainly respect that because I myself am not a Pro Met...and I know you know what to look for, but it sure seems to me that the EPS and the Op have been struggling more so than before...and are not quite what they used to be.  That's my opinion, and we can be on opposite sides on this, but I'm just not as impressed overall with the Euro as I used to be.

 

True story:  Had the opportunity on Thanksgiving to talk personally with Guy at one of my buddies house that was a Pro MET who works on Mt. Washington, and I brought this very point up to him, and he said he feels that when they tweaked it/updated the Euro the last time, he agreed it's not as good as it used to be...he said whatever they did to it, made it worse(his words).  This young guy knew his stuff, and is going for his PHD so he can teach Atmospheric science at a University.

2017.07.06-MikeMadDog.jpg

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4 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

You gotta realize that Coastal always says the pattern is crap, mild, and cuttery.....not sure he's ever said an upcoming pattern looks favorable, maybe it's some reverse psychology stuff? 

Remember when you said the ground was going to be too warm for snow to stick at 1,000 feet in ORH county before the 11/15 storm? 

 

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For those dying to wish away this mild period, I'd say the best shot of something before Christmas is 12/23-24ish. Outside chance we could turn 12/21-22 into something good but the antecedent airmass before that is putrid so it would have to be perfect. 

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26 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

That was a bit tongue in cheek. Models improve every year as you are aware. The 2018 euro is objectively better than the 2013. As is the GFS and anything else out ther. 

Lol oh ok, absolutely. Hey you have to be close to these sub 970s that zip by, how much snow so far this year

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

For those dying to wish away this mild period, I'd say the best shot of something before Christmas is 12/23-24ish. Outside chance we could turn 12/21-22 into something good but the antecedent airmass before that is putrid so it would have to be perfect. 

Probably something good will happen around that time, if only because we'll be visiting family in SNJ and would miss it, just like Jan. 2015.  The GFS, at least, has taken the volcanic heat off the table - just garden variety mild-up (for now.)

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