December Discussion

[dendrite]

Metfanbot only finds the coldest and snowiest model of every suite to post about it. He's a less obnoxious jimmy.

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Link with the verification scores?   

It did better with the November cold so now apparently it means we should automatically use it over the EPS every time now. Silly logic obviously. GEFS did pretty bad in seeing this current mild period coming. It was late to the party. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

22 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gefs is way different

Go with the gefs. It has had the hot hand so far this season.

Why?  I know you want to because it supports your wanted outcome.   The atmosphere doesn't work that way.

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't know who is really qualified to serve as arbiter in that debate ... but as a passive observer along the way - both sides appear to be responding to resentment and/or semantics the whole time.  Now ... y'all on either side may feel more righteous and put off by that compromise ... but as objectively as I can muster, you're arguing through subjective interpretation - that never ends well.  One side thinks the other has an agenda, and that annoys them, and only foments further.

It's interesting.  I've noticed a tendency ...over years actually ( years! ), enough so to prove it's a real phenomenon, people of the public hoi-polloi knee-jerk respond and apply suspicion of other people's intent, first, with less any analytic consideration for what is actually being said. 

I see it all the time, elsewhere too..  Communication via email at the office? That's an art! I work in a field that has zippo nothing zilch to do with this sort of affair, and it's the same deal.  Same exact f'n thing - "Hey, Ashley, can you read this email before I make our department sound like a big azzhole?"   Dimes to donuts, that email needs editing because despite all best intentions, some participle or predicate looks like a steaming winking, burning brown-eye.  

But these are white faces in here. Communication ... as it is scienced, is about 30% words, but ~ 70% music. The music is the intonation, along with the subtleties of a speaker's face and body expressions. This music cannot happen on the Internet.  Then, missing that ... the human mind uses the imagination.  Oops!  Any predisposition in the reader and the imagination of said reader will be happy to construct why they think the other azzhole's intentions are... 

Doesn't take Hannibal Lecter to see where that ends up... 

 

 

[NorEastermass128]

It's pretty clear we just need it to snow somehow some way.  

[cut]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't know who is really qualified to serve as arbiter in that debate ... but as a passive observer along the way - both sides appear to be responding to resentment and/or semantics the whole time.  Now ... y'all on either side may feel righteous and put off by that compromise ... but as objectively as I can muster, you're arguing through subjective interpretation - that never ends well.  One side thinks the other has an agenda, and that annoys them, and only foments further.

It's interesting.  I've noticed a tendency ...over years actually ( years! ), enough so to prove it's a real phenomenon, people of the public hoi-polloi knee-jerk respond and apply suspicion of other people's intent, first, with less any analytic consideration for what is actually being said. 

I see it all the time, elsewhere too..  Communication via email at the office? That's an art! I work in a field that has zippo nothing zilch to do with this sort of affair, and it's the same deal.  Same exact f'n thing - "Hey, Ashley, can you read this email before I make our department sound like a big azzhole?"   Dimes to donuts, that email needs editing because despite all best intentions, some participle or predicate looks like a steaming winking, burning brown-eye.  

But these are white faces in here. Communication ... as it is scienced, is about 30% words, but ~ 70% music. The music is the intonation, along with the subtleties of a speaker's face and body expressions. This music cannot happen on the Internet.  Then, missing that ... the human mind uses the imagination.  Oops!  Any predisposition to the reader and the imagination of said reader will be happy to construct why they think the other azzhole's intentions are... 

Doesn't take Hannibal Lecter to see where that ends up... 

 

 

This can be applied to our current political discussion as well.

 

Hoping we get the return to wintery weather prior to Christmas. I have a good feeling - loosely based on science.

[Lava Rock]

57 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Only the GFS op runs, but the mildest on the 16-day periods at Augusta has regressed from low 60s (with 2"+ RA) to low 40s (with small RA/mix events) over the past couple days - still 5-10° AN but the furnace seems to be burning lower.

oof! that would have been terrible

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, cut said:

This can be applied to our current political discussion as well.

 

Hoping we get the return to wintery weather prior to Christmas. I have a good feeling - loosely based on science.

Pretty much to all political discussion since the Dawn of Time (or the Dawn Awakening?)

ORH has had 8 days in a row with negative departures, 9 of 11 for the month.  Today and tomorrow might add to that.

-4.5F for the month so far.    We chilly, but not a flake in a while...slim chance of any for a while too

[Damage In Tolland]

Snowy day in CT / W Mass tomorrow 

[WinterWolf]

A potential snow shower counts as a Snowy day??  

 

Well I guess since we haven't seen many flakes in the last month....perhaps?

[ORH_wxman]

I'll give the cliff's notes version:

- cold for another couple days 

- warmup coming and will last for at least a week (intensity to be determined)

- very small chance we could still score a minor event during the warmup

- cold and much more favorable pattern for snow returns near Christmas...maybe as early as 12/22-23 but it could also be delayed a few days. 

-late December and beyond still looks very good

 

The end. 

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, cut said:

This can be applied to our current political discussion as well.

 

Hoping we get the return to wintery weather prior to Christmas. I have a good feeling - loosely based on science.

Political?

Ho -man... 

Lil' advice... spare your self the utter insanity of trying to wade through those quagmires.  Particularly in this day and age, when the internet has coagulated political islands ...schisms self-feedback empowered by merely finding other nimrods that think the same biased way they do.  There's a whole sociological crisis afoot actually ...which we probably can take off topic and should from this point forward, but ... sufficed it is to say: in this era of fractured ethos across the greater expanse of culture (meaning, furthering break-downs of common social outlooks), you simply can not engage in any worthwhile intellectual quorum on the Internet wrt to politics, and all the above with comm is only part of the reason why.  It's an untenable resulting complexity where vitriol can be the only goal.  

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'll give the cliff's notes version:

- cold for another couple days 

- warmup coming and will last for at least a week (intensity to be determined)

- very small chance we could still score a minor event during the warmup

- cold and much more favorable pattern for snow returns near Christmas...maybe as early as 12/22-23 but it could also be delayed a few days. 

-late December and beyond still looks very good

 

The end. 

The Euro had a +10 C 850 day in there on the 00z...

I'm sure you're aware of that. 

One thing we always used to sort of lay-person adage: 'first it gets warm, then it gets cold; boom!'   ...In a general sense, that works often enough.  I'm sure you can just get stuck in a 2015 February and score all the time but that is exceedingly rare... By and large, the former adage works because it is the sensible variation of the H. Archembault correction   -  ... Gets warm, and to remove it, we gotta storm things up a bit... somethin' like that.

So, in a holistic sense, folks should embrace pattern roll-outs and reset ... i.e., warm ups therein:  they uh...gee, tend to be a requirement for cyclones for a myriad of reasons. 

It's all such a dopey pointless waste of argumentative time. wow

[40/70 Benchmark]

This may sound silly, but I'm ambivalent about December struggling....if you look back at all of our most prolific weak modoki seasons, they all struggled in December snowfall wise, with the exception of one....December 1977.

December 2014, 2004, and 1968 were all fairly meager snowfall months. December 1976 was a prolific month during a weak el nino, but it was not a modoki. It is not difficult to envision how this month could have easily verified similarly to 12/77 had a moose fart drifted at a slightly different angle, and the northern stream had synced with that s SW, as opposed to suppressing it.

The moral of the story is that December 2018 was largely anticipated to be frustrating from a snowfall standpoint, or at least it should have. My hunch is that something will work out from about most of sne points northward in latitude as the month begins to draw to a close. This will provide the impetus for some unrealistic expectations for the first half of January, which will engender some feelings of unwarranted disappointment, only to be reinvigorated by the real deal as the month ages and the late January/February bonanza ensues.

Just my two cents-

[Eduardo]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The Euro had a +10 C 850 day in there on the 00z...

I'm sure you're aware of that. 

One thing we always used to sort of lay-person adage: 'first it gets warm, then it gets cold; boom!'   ...In a general sense, that works often enough.  I'm sure you can just get stuck in a 2015 February and score all the time but that is exceedingly rare... By and large, the former adage works because it is the sensible variation of the H. Archembault correction   -  ... Gets warm, and to remove it, we gotta storm things up a bit... somethin' like that.

So, in a holistic sense, folks should embrace pattern roll-outs and reset ... i.e., warm ups therein:  they uh...gee, tend to be a requirement for cyclones for a myriad of reasons. 

It's all such a dopey pointless waste of argumentative time. wow

Given that the potential transition window centers around the holiday, I honestly think it's all driven by a (shared) desire for a white Xmas and amplified by the recent bout of bad luck.  That's all there is to it.

 

Once we move past Xmas (whether it's white or not), everybody will get over it and wait with baited breath as we look forward to a rocking second half of the winter, which ENSO climo supports.  I'm looking forward to it!

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Eduardo said:

Given that the potential transition window centers around the holiday, I honestly think it's all driven by a (shared) desire for a white Xmas and amplified by the recent bout of bad luck.  That's all there is to it.

 

Once we move past Xmas (whether it's white or not), everybody will get over it and wait with baited breath as we look forward to a rocking second half of the winter, which ENSO climo supports.  I'm looking forward to it!

I agree there tends to be more urgency around the holiday. I definitely have a more emotional attachment to snow near Christmas...and our window there is definitely pretty small. But we've seen worse prospects before from this time range and had it pan out. 

We scored a big one in November too which really got everyone salivating for more, much earlier than usual...especially with a favorable pattern progged in early December along with some legit looming threats in the medium range. 12/5 and 12/10 both shat the bed and with a relaxation coming, you can see where the angst comes from. 

But I'm generally in agreement with Ray. I would be pretty surprised if we didn't have a fantastic period this winter given the enso state and the historical precedent of big blocking having already occurred (bodes well for it returning later in winter). 

[Ginx snewx]

Put together a 4 week forecast beginning 12/21 if anyone is interested in peeking at it

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I agree there tends to be more urgency around the holiday. I definitely have a more emotional attachment to snow near Christmas...and our window there is definitely pretty small. But we've seen worse prospects before from this time range and had it pan out. 

We scored a big one in November too which really got everyone salivating for more, much earlier than usual...especially with a favorable pattern progged in early December along with some legit looming threats in the medium range. 12/5 and 12/10 both shat the bed and with a relaxation coming, you can see where the angst comes from. 

But I'm generally in agreement with Ray. I would be pretty surprised if we didn't have a fantastic period this winter given the enso state and the historical precedent of big blocking having already occurred (bodes well for it returning later in winter). 

Awesome job scouting that Novie Scandivian ridging.....you drew that to my attention and it was a huge part of my outlook. I would have gone for a very mild December 2014.

I think a late December event will kind of do what the mid Novie event did in that it will get everyone a bit too eager for a while.

[Greg]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This may sound silly, but I'm ambivalent about December struggling....if you look back at all of our most prolific weak modoki seasons, they all struggled in December snowfall wise, with the exception of one....December 1977.

December 2014, 2004, and 1968 were all fairly meager snowfall months. December 1976 was a prolific month during a weak el nino, but it was not a modoki. It is not difficult to envision how this month could have easily verified similarly to 12/77 had a moose fart drifted at a slightly different angle, and the northern stream had synced with that s SW, as opposed to suppressing it.

The moral of the story is that December 2018 was largely anticipated to be frustrating from a snowfall standpoint, or at least it should have. My hunch is that something will work out from about most of sne points northward in latitude as the month begins to draw to a close. This will provide the impetus for some unrealistic expectations for the first half of January, which will engender some feelings of unwarranted disappointment, only to be reinvigorated by the real deal as the month ages and the late January/February bonanza ensues.

Just my two cents-

Ray, I think you meant December of 1976 before it turned to the Winter of 1977.  Late December after Christmas the Boston area cashed in an salvaged that December.  Even though as you have stated it was not a "Modoki", it still was a general weak El Nino.  In other words, its pattern fits overall.  The 68/69, 76/77, 77/78, 86/87, 02/03, 04/05/, 06/07, 14/15 all have simliar patterns.  I take them collectively not individually which some on this weather board, not you, have semed to do.

[MJO812]

GFS still showing some snow on Monday

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Greg said:

Ray, I think you meant December of 1976 before it turned to the Winter of 1977.  Late December after Christmas the Boston area cashed in an salvaged that December.  Even though as you have stated it was not a Modki, it still was a general weak El Nino.  In other words, its pattern fits overall.  The 68/69, 76/77, 77/78, 02/03, 04/05/, 14/15 all have simliar patterns.  I take them collectively not individually which some on this weather board, not you, have semed to do.

I mentioned that season....it was weak, but not a modoki. 1976 and 2004 both had large events the final week of December....I think we will see a moderate one, anyway....maybe overrunning with some redevelopment. That Dec 1976 event was a real late bloomer.....crushed our area with like 20", and gave ORH like 5" of sand. We could see some of that this season, but odds favor ORH being just far enough east, of course.

2002 was solidly modertate....which is my issue with that analog...I don't think we will be as Miller A heavy this year, but generally speaking, its a fine comp. Same issue with 1986...much milder December, more like 2014, too.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

GFS still showing some snow on Monday

Yea. Actually quite a good bit for most north of nyc. 

[alex]

Snowy day in NNE. 1.5" so far (I'm not home but I'm making one of my employees measure lol)

 

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, frd said:

Is it not the very features and tropical forcing causing this warm up , the same players involved in the demise of the SPV? 

I thought it was based on precursor pattern. The warm up itself creates its on desctruction given enough time.  

I also read that tropical forcing itself it very much involved in what is going on up North and of course other factors as well, like early season low sea ice, pressure patterns, etc.   

great post and spot on

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Awesome job scouting that Novie Scandivian ridging.....you drew that to my attention and it was a huge part of my outlook. I would have gone for a very mild December 2014.

I think a late December event will kind of do what the mid Novie event did in that it will get everyone a bit too eager for a while.

Thanks man...

We will have to see what happens post-mild pattern. It will probably be the final say in the narrative for the month. If we score a couple events or even grab one in the garbage pattern like the GFS is trying to insist on, then the month will be viewed much more favorably. 

I'm rooting for something Xmas eve or Xmas...might be able to sneak one in there. 

[Ginx snewx]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This may sound silly, but I'm ambivalent about December struggling....if you look back at all of our most prolific weak modoki seasons, they all struggled in December snowfall wise, with the exception of one....December 1977.

December 2014, 2004, and 1968 were all fairly meager snowfall months. December 1976 was a prolific month during a weak el nino, but it was not a modoki. It is not difficult to envision how this month could have easily verified similarly to 12/77 had a moose fart drifted at a slightly different angle, and the northern stream had synced with that s SW, as opposed to suppressing it.

The moral of the story is that December 2018 was largely anticipated to be frustrating from a snowfall standpoint, or at least it should have. My hunch is that something will work out from about most of sne points northward in latitude as the month begins to draw to a close. This will provide the impetus for some unrealistic expectations for the first half of January, which will engender some feelings of unwarranted disappointment, only to be reinvigorated by the real deal as the month ages and the late January/February bonanza ensues.

Just my two cents-

Didn't you have like 15 inches for Dec ? (which I still think is very possible) Did you just punt 95% of Dec?

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, alex said:

Snowy day in NNE. 1.5" so far (I'm not home but I'm making one of my employees measure lol)

 

 

 

Nice Alex lol what a weenie, I do the same for work when I am home. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Didn't you have like 15 inches for Dec ? (which I still think is very possible) Did you just punt 95% of Dec?

I don't do monthly snowfall totals. I do seasonal..however I did tell you verbally that we would probably get like 15" here. We'll see... may be tough now because we whiffed on the early month set up. Gonna have to come late.

I punted until the final week of the year for significant snows once we missed last weekend.

[Greg]

Guys there's still time to get a sneak attack of 4-8" and even an 8-12" storm.  Things can happen around here.  It's only Dec 12, right now.

[Hazey]

looks like the cmc caved to the gfs..finally. What a piece of crap that model is.