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December Discussion


NorEastermass128
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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

Gradient pattern in the long range.  Hopefully we’re on the cold side.   EPS says be no further south than SNE.  Precarious to me.  Overall big differences between gfs and euro family.  The pipe dream is gfs/GEFS is right.   

Gefs has been way better than the eps

2 hours ago, Zach’s Pop said:

You mean the same  eps that parked a one eyed pig over Alaska for two weeks and canceled winter two weeks ago?? You guys sure get hung up on an ensemble that has not done very well this cold season. 

I agree. Eps are already correcting to a colder solution in the long range. I have no clue what's wrong with it but it's doing awful.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Are we still pretending this mild pattern isn't happening? 

Is it not the very features and tropical forcing causing this warm up , the same players involved in the demise of the SPV? 

I thought it was based on precursor pattern. The warm up itself creates its on desctruction given enough time.  

I also read that tropical forcing itself it very much involved in what is going on up North and of course other factors as well, like early season low sea ice, pressure patterns, etc.   

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

No but it's not going to be  a long stretch like once predicted.

We had some claiming it would be just a few days and be gone by the 17-18th. This is going to be over a week...and could be longer if we don't get a favorable storm track just prior to Christmas. 

For some reason, if it's not 60+, people seem to think the pattern is not mild. We will come back to verification numbers before Xmas and see what happened. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We had some claiming it would be just a few days and be gone by the 17-18th. This is going to be over a week...and could be longer if we don't get a favorable storm track just prior to Christmas. 

For some reason, if it's not 60+, people seem to think the pattern is not mild. We will come back to verification numbers before Xmas and see what happened. 

Nobody said a relaxation wasn’t coming. But some on here were punting the rest of December and early January. We were supposed to have a huge cutter this weekend with howling south winds, sipping adult beverages on the beaches. That isn’t happening either. Outside shot at some snow for a few during this close the shades period. A big fat meh torch. 

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Just now, Zach’s Pop said:

Nobody said a relaxation wasn’t coming. But some on here were punting the rest of December and early January. We were supposed to have a huge cutter this weekend with howling south winds, sipping adult beverages on the beaches. That isn’t happening either. Outside shot at some snow for a few during this close the shades period. A big fat meh torch. 

Name names rather then beating around the bush.

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4 minutes ago, Zach’s Pop said:

Nobody said a relaxation wasn’t coming. But some on here were punting the rest of December and early January. We were supposed to have a huge cutter this weekend with howling south winds, sipping adult beverages on the beaches. That isn’t happening either. Outside shot at some snow for a few during this close the shades period. A big fat meh torch. 

I haven't seen anyone cancel the rest of December. Sounds like hyperbole. Maybe one weenie said it but the discussion to me has been pretty consistent on the last week of December being pretty favorable for winter wx. The bigger point of contention was the period just before that...Dec 18-23 or so. That period looks solidly above average to me now as a whole. Hopefully we're cold again by the 22nd-23rd but no guarantee.

This will be a pretty solid mild pattern and we're going to put a monster dent in the monthly negative departures. A colder rain on the weekend may lessen the magnitude of the mild up but even with the storm going south, this period will be quite warm. It's going to be felt especially on the overnight mins. 

 

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I think what Zacks Pop is meaning is that there was quite a bit of Doom and Gloom a couple weeks back about all kinds of mildness and tropical drinks etc etc....and now the relaxation isn't quite what was being touted a couple weeks back.  Sure it's going to be a mild up no doubt, but it has taken on a less severe look than what was first being thought, or what was being said.  

 

I realize some of it was trolling/busting chops to the ACATT crew, but that made it seem more severe than it looks to turn out to be at the moment. 

 

Anyway, let's hope we score something in a not so good pattern...cuz we got boned in a good pattern at least twice which sucks. 

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I think occasionally you will see a joking or prodding comment in good humor but you need to be able to separate that from the person's actual analysis.  I think the general analysis has been pretty clear regarding a relax and probable reload late in the month, perhaps we get a little good luck to make up for some bad luck with a gradient type pattern near the holidays.  Seems like some in here want to argue just for argument's sake.

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I wouldn't say we can rule out a real furnace day or two yet. That period around dec 19-20 could produce parakeets and pina coladas if we get a good system to our west which has moderate support right now. No way to know about any CAD or redevelopment yet, but keep an eye out. 

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Looks like we narrowly avoid a 2011-2012 like pattern and stay somewhat wintery up to Christmas. Definitely more mild than we’re used to and definitely 5-10 AN. For about a week. Looks like we go back to BN just in time for hanging up stockings.

I think everyone in this forum should take a deep breath and appreciate the lack of AGW future weather. 

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