Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Well, at least it's not a furnace. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: ORH had over a 100", too....we were in a screw zone. Your memory is approaching Will-type levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I don't care about anywhere but New England but I see alternating dry pattern , meh is meh, certainly no where in NE would anyone be sipping Mai Tais and cocktails Like Will said yesterday and multiple Mets, it’s mild days and cool nights with a few warmer ones thrown it. Whether it’s 45 or 55, it’s an ugly look. My guess is at least a day in 50s with maybe 2 if we get ridging prior to Christmas. I mean whatever makes you sleep at night, but it’s pretty bad. I think several people including Mets have tried to say that. It’s not like there is snow to protect except up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Well since Brian doesn't want me to post charts and says I should be posting MOS WORCESTER KORH GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 12/11/2018 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 WED 12| THU 13| FRI 14| SAT 15| SUN 16| MON 17| TUE 18|WED CLIMO N/X 20 33| 15 27| 23 37| 36 47| 32 36| 25 36| 25 34| 21 21 37 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: IDK doesn't impress me as anything crazy. Like I said some warm days interspersed, changeable too. I'd upload the ten day 850 Gif if I could Hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Like Will said yesterday and multiple Mets, it’s mild days and cool nights with a few warmer ones thrown it. Whether it’s 45 or 55, it’s an ugly look. My guess is at least a day in 50s with maybe 2 if we get ridging prior to Christmas. I mean whatever makes you sleep at night, but it’s pretty bad. I think several people including Mets have tried to say that. It’s not like there is snow to protect except up north. its meh is my point, nothing atypical about it. Just boring and dry warmer than it has been, couple of cold shots but just boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Hi I was trying to upload actual temps at 850 just in New England but Hi, you might want to slow your frame rate down next time though, giving me a headache Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah 95 96 was incredible for all. 92 inches in SW CT. Though I've never seen any papers that are definitive ... there was conjecture floated ... from credible sources actually regarding the planetary system reeling in a local time scale Pinatubo climate ... It erupted in June '91 in a perfect spot, too ... near the equator. It punched a high aerosol effusion content tens of miles high ... interacting with stratosphere. Global temperatures nicked downward through 1995 ... thought to be a result. Of course 1994-1995 was not a very impressively cold or snowing winter out side of (perhaps) a single one week period in February... Anyway, I've always thought it oddly coincidental that we were "enjoying" a decade long dearth of interesting anything really ...then, Pinatubo happens and a year later we started dispensing frenzied winters like pezz candies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: How about the save by the bell Xmass morning event there ... hahaha... Man, pulling that off two years back to back would be an impressive statistical feat - I wonder if, in recorded weather history for SNE, we have ever had consecutive (plowable) Christmas snows... I know they are pretty rare. I can think of a couple besides last year (2001 I think?) plus one in the late 1990s I believe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Hi That says it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I wonder if, in recorded weather history for SNE, we have ever had consecutive (plowable) Christmas snows... I know they are pretty rare. I can think of a couple besides last year (2001 I think?) plus one in the late 1990s I believe... Using Rays former nearby COOP in Reading there have been 4 Christmas days there with > 4 inches, if you want me to check somewhere else let me know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Over/under on number of daily departures at ORH being +5 or more between now and Christmas? I will go with 6 for the starting line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Using Rays former nearby COOP in Reading there have been 4 Christmas days there with > 4 inches, if you want me to check somewhere else let me know Thanks. I seem to recall that having a pretty long history (60 or so years?) Help a weenie out... link? Never mind. Found it 1960-2015 I'm looking at the data on NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Quick glance at the GFS shows a good way of running a gradient pattern Winners and losers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I wonder if, in recorded weather history for SNE, we have ever had consecutive (plowable) Christmas snows... I know they are pretty rare. I can think of a couple besides last year (2001 I think?) plus one in the late 1990s I believe... yeah interesting question. Don't know. Just off the cuff I'd say a long, long ways back in time ...But, you know how that goes - we tend to recall the disappointments in our minds with some order of magnitude better clarity and significance ..ha. Just looking at the statistics for a white xmas or not, and it's not really favorable .. We're on average in the 50th percentile in SNE.... The odds do pick up pretty quickly looking N. CON, NH is 70 and it's over 90 in western Maine. But, white means snow on the ground. And that is only 50% ... We'd have to ask first, how often is there actually snow falling in xmas morning. That get's a lot dicier/lower odds. I think with reasonably confidence we can infer that we'd have to go back pretty far to find actual plowable snow on the 25th, back to back years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Such a confusing thread to follow! Seems like nobody knows for sure what goes down next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Such a confusing thread to follow! Seems like nobody knows for sure what goes down next 2 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I think with reasonably confidence we can infer that we'd have to go back pretty far to find actual plowable snow on the 25th, back to back years. HFD shows only 1 day above 4 inches on Christmas but 9 on the 26th, probably a case of the Observer not measuring Christmas day. I won't use that sh ithole of Boston but ORH is 4 times on the 25th and 11 on the 26th, see the pattern? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s pretty clear to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: It’s pretty clear to me. The boy needs reassurance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 23 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Such a confusing thread to follow! Seems like nobody knows for sure what goes down next 2 weeks. Euro is dry with some warmer days, GFS is snowy and colder. GEFS are colder EPS differs greatly from GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Eps is trending towards the gefs with the pattern near xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Down in NYC there have been some bad inaccuracies since switching over to ASOS also (linked to vegetation overgrowth, it includes bad temp data, p-type issues, wind measurement concerns, etc.). What was the reason for the switchover to ASOS? I wish we'd just use the wunderground network with Davis weather stations only, and use that as official weather data. I know that there are networks such as MADIS, so we shouldn't just be limited to airports. Those sites just need to be made official and reported on by the media, rather than all of the attention being given to airports and their inaccurate data. I mean the reason for the conversion is that nobody wants to pay for a human observer when the computer can do it for a small down payment. And Davis's are fine, but not everyone keeps them as well maintained as Brian. So we can't really rely on them (but certainly use the ones we consider to be within tolerance to fill in our gaps). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 I just opened Alex's post and went to his camera link, man dude has got an epic view 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 I’m flying to Montreal with my family to spend Xmas there. My hunch is we get a historic storm on the 22nd when my flight is, forcing the airline to cancel it, and thus forcing me to stay in NYC for the holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 53 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Your memory is approaching Will-type levels No. He remembers the individual day of each event, complete with mesoscale nuances...seriously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 28 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 21 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps is trending towards the gefs with the pattern near xmas I thought EPS dug in with more gradient peril potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Damn PF 2nd coldest this monthly period of weather ever at Montpelier, 1st coldest on maxes too wow. Thats a 68 year record base Past Month 11/11/18 - 12/10/18 View History 100% 30 Daily Value 30.4 °F 15.7 °F 23 °F 3.12 in Bismarck, ND Max: 34.1 °F Min: 14 °F DFN -9.1 °F -7.5 °F -8.3 °F +0.0 in Ranking 1st coldest 2nd coldest 2nd coldest 27th wettest Similar DOY ? Feb 2-Mar 1 Nov 28-Dec 27 Dec 1-Dec 30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: I thought EPS dug in with more gradient peril potentially. I'm def. on the gradient train this month....some RNA/-EPO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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