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December Discussion


NorEastermass128
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Mm... the longitudinal component of the total wave function is anomalously quick right now/in this period in question - ...it may not be entirely suitable to the Euro's particular make up to handle progressive patterns as well as it does more standard meridional amplitude pattern types.  

We know that ... 

Granted, this system is on the near side of middle range ... but "if" this pattern is problematic, it might shorten the models wheel-house edge.  Sounds like a stretch but, this run did technically come slight N with the southern vortex over 00z... and there is time.  interesting. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean never say never,  it the gfs solution is rather far fetched.

That northern stream is trying to catch up with it...if it can phase in then we could see something but it looks like it just doesn't have enough time. But who knows, GGEM and ukie actually looked a little closer to GFS than the euro. So maybe. But even those solutions were meh. Maybe some IVT flakes. 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That northern stream is trying to catch up with it...if it can phase in then we could see something but it looks like it just doesn't have enough time. But who knows, GGEM and ukie actually looked a little closer to GFS than the euro. So maybe. But even those solutions were meh. Maybe some IVT flakes. 

Yeah subtle trend there. It definitely needs work. Too bad that little shot of cold prior to that can’t mix in with that rain. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah subtle trend there. It definitely needs work. Too bad that little shot of cold prior to that can’t mix in with that rain. 

Yeah the first northern stream whiffs and keeps the cold in Canada. One eyed pig FTL helping cause that. 

Were prob gonna have to wait until post-12/22 for anything. But maybe we get lucky early next week. We've done it before in putrid patterns...atmosphere owes us for the whiffs Dec 5-12, lol. 

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All and all that's a pretty chilly run. PF and the rest of the NNE crew can rest easy with practically no precip next ten days and sub freezing the majority of the time. Mild up getting squeezed all over the place. Still some AN days interspersed but overall nothing what I expected after 3 weeks of hearing about it.

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That was a whopper adjustment by the UKMET ...wow.  

As Will mentioned, it's more GFS like.   

It seems the landscape of that period of time is now one of three things, the third option being new to the table.

The first is the 00z Euro complete and utter ...outre universal non-event

The second is that the southern stream system remains stronger and feeds back on tossing more lead s/w ridging ...which then causes it to turn left enough to clip us with cold rain... but every other couple of model solution, said cold rain flips to snow. 

The third is the N/stream bullying in a late subsume phase... The UKMET is partial already... and probably if that frame could go out to 168 that'd be a stem-wound bomb up there in western NS.. But, in either the GFS or UK' solutions... the N/stream brings potent instability through and would probably WINDEX the hell outta the region either way...  

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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

All and all that's a pretty chilly run. PF and the rest of the NNE crew can rest easy with practically no precip next ten days and sub freezing the majority of the time. Mild up getting squeezed all over the place. Still some AN days interspersed but overall nothing what I expected after 3 weeks of hearing about it.

I think we looked at different runs? This one was warm as toast looking only at H85.

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You guys without pets are obsessed with dog poo, its easy to control with responsible owners who look after their animals. Frozen or not its two trips around the yard twice a day, don't even have to bend over. Sorry it's not the torch you wish for Scott but that's about as typical a Dec run as I have ever seen. You need to move to NNE or something if you expect wall to wall winter. The jealousy comes out every time. Perhaps you will melt  again ala Jan 15 right before the most epic winter of your life

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1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Are you sure about that?*  I thought that was a big snow winter, followed by a dog in 94-95, then the historic 95-96.

*Be careful about using BDR's measurements.  For many years they simply took the water equivalent and multiplied by 10.

Yeah. 93 94 was frigid but we ended up getting a lot of ice storms in lieu of snow. 

I NEVER use BDR, people think we have a 25 to 30 snowfall range due to that POS reporting station.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Steve, bruh, if you don’t think that’s a putrid look....I honestly salute you. Look at the conus. Look at the big picture. We are definitely in between patterns with some lousy looks.

I don't care about anywhere but New England but I see alternating dry pattern , meh is meh, certainly no where in NE would anyone be sipping Mai Tais and cocktails

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