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December Discussion


NorEastermass128
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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

12z gfs is high end advisory to low end warning for SNE Sunday pm overnite

perfectly places high

850/925 cold enough looks like 128 snow storm verbatim 

thought there was zero cold air and we wanted a miss 

legit like best care scenario on that run tho .. not saying impossible, but its almost impossible :lol: 

things will have to be timed perfectly to have any chance 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

For the general consumer ...   https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

They're reporting ENSO neutral with also as you show up here, modest warming the equitorial Pacific ... *however, expectations are for El Nino throughout the next calendar year. Along with supporting data and so forth... 

My feeling is that too much emphasis has and is been(ing) placed on the summer thru autumn's ENSO status and how it will effect winter. Why? Not complicated really.. As the Hemispheric gradients steepen, that effectively activates the greater forcing tapestry ... (Uh, layout)  In other words, neutrality doesn't intuitively suggest whatever we were seeing in those summer ending weeks and through autumn, has to be driving the pattern variances now. 

If the signal was more apparent earlier on, as the season's descent got under way...then thresholds and trigger points and so forth would have been succeeded and we might see some more obvious, correlated traits emerge.  But, ...failing that (in the form of "neutral" - helloooo) gee... I wonder why we keep reading "...looks like Nina" or "...looks like Nino".   Maybe it doesn't look like anything. 

I'm being snarky there a little of course... Yes, the leading atmospheric factors in the total ocean-atmospheric coupled model may try to 'bend'  El Nino ...if indeed their "80%" chance parlays.  And in that... maybe the winter overall gets better designed later in January ...  Before that time, it's probably a coin flip pattern wiggling daily head-ache cornucopia of reasons to be irritable.   

I still believe that a "Weak" El Nino is going to occur based on what you have just described here. However, if a Nino "Neutral" was to occur, I would lean to something along the lines of 1993/1994 Winter. Not for the snow per se but the gradient of the pattern that may take place.

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3 minutes ago, Greg said:

I still believe that a "Weak" El Nino is going to occur based on what you have just described here. However, if a Nino "Neutral" was to occur, I would lean to something along the lines of 1993/1994 Winter. Not for the snow per se but the gradient of the pattern that may take place.

I'd take a slightly milder version of that winter....the heavy oes component to that season limited it to just a bit snowier than avg in our area....probably my most overrated winter. Not one truly major event, either.

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Just now, Greg said:

GGEM usually runs too wet and amped, GFS as we all know is a little progressive but closer to reality.  Need to get closer in before we can get a decent consensus.

Well, I wouldn't base any forecast using the GGEM, And i question the GFS as its on its way out so would probably give the FV3 a little more weight then obviously the Euro if it moves in that direction.

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure it would after the last blizzard failure....I mean, people would mention it, but not sure there would be takers.

At day 5 it would

 

, last storm was a day 7-10 fantasy for us . Weather was so boring all we had to track was a day 10 blizzard that got to about day 7-8 then shifted , recipe for failure 

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd take a slightly milder version of that winter....the heavy oes component to that season limited it to just a bit snowier than avg in our area....probably my most overrated winter. Not one truly major event, either.

I agree fully with your statement.  Lots of Alberta Clippers slowed down that year with direct hits occuring with 6"-12". Not bad at the end with a 90-100" snowfall winter.  I don't think the heart of our viewing area would mind that at all right now.

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50 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I wouldn't punt anything at all. This going under us is a saving grace for ski areas, huge huge snow making bases all over even southern locales. Bluebird wx near 40, I mean cmon no better, ice skating and skiing for you winter enthusiasts should be awesome, go go go

Yup  Early ski season has been phenomenal, looks like the skating crowd N of the Pike should be in good shape, prob S of it too for a bit  

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40 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

it's you (or the data source/type).

sst_anom.gif.19cbf63b39efe1c195c5519e4706adf6.gif

Weak arse as I thought, neutral to slightly above, predictions have it dropping pretty quickly too. The atmosphere is decoupled too. IDK if there will be any Nino influence this winter That's OK because Nino has the lowest correlation scores in New England of the major teleconnections, lets pump up that -EPO and then we will talk. 

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4 minutes ago, Greg said:

I agree fully with your statement.  Lots of Alberta Clippers slowed down that year with direct hits occuring with 6"-12". Not bad at the end with a 90-100" snowfall winter.  I don't think the heart of our viewing area would mind that at all right now.

We got 78.5", Greg.

Boston had 90-100".

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Weak arse as I thought, neutral to slightly above, predictions have it dropping pretty quickly too. The atmosphere is decoupled too. IDK if there will be any Nino influence this winter That's OK because Nino has the lowest correlation scores in New England of the major teleconnections, lets pump up that -EPO and then we will talk. 

I think weak el nino is a pretty definitive signal for big snows around here. Snowiest ENSO state.

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Yes but fortunately for us the influence lies elsewhere, contributing factor yes, predictive outcomes based on state, sometimes.

? I mean, the forcing associated with weak el nino is directly responsible, if that is what you mean....sure. We are still going to verify weal el nino, anyway imo.....not sure where the confusion is. 

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