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December Discussion


NorEastermass128
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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol panic peeps showing their colors. Lets shoot for a full moon goon storm on the Solstice as we finally kick off the official start to winter. I know seems weird but most of us in SNE snow the most between Dec 21 and March 21. ORH is still above normal snow season to date with their 9 inch total. Peeps need patience 

I've kind of sat back the past few days and just been taking in the angst by some in here, Over analyzing and stressing over something none of us can control..............lol

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

You know better than that. MOS at least matches past patterns to expected temps, vs raw model output. 

I have followed these charts and MOS long enough to understand that they both have bias, oddly the Euro charts have been not bad. I do appreciate science would love to see the charts skill scores. Unfortunately I only have personal experience.  Most deviations happens with unstable patterns like the one coming up. A cutter can soar us way up in the 50s rather than low 40s. That Euro run was colder. Seeing as we have no Euro Mos its all we have. If you or the chicken plucker have some bias scores please share.

.

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I have followed these charts and MOS long enough to understand that they both have bias, oddly the Euro charts have been not bad. I do appreciate science would love to see the charts skill scores. Unfortunately I only have personal experience.  Most deviations happens with unstable patterns like the one coming up. A cutter can soar us way up in the 50s rather than low 40s. That Euro run was colder. Seeing as we have no Euro Mos its all we have. If you or the chicken plucker have some bias scores please share.

Euro MOS does actually exist. There's actually a nice ensemble MOS too. I have no clue who created it and how, but I know that's it's internal.

I can tell you the BDL raw numbers are on the lower side of the ensemble, the mean is actually warmer than the numbers you posted. But the 90th percentile isn't EYW either. If folks prepare for upper 40s/lower 50s this weekend into early next week chance are they'll not be upset, as most days will come under that. 

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17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

My normal ending Dec 31 is 12 so with 8.5 I won't,probably NJ NYC area for that

That's what I was thinking, but still in the grand scheme of things even if it doesn't snow again in December everyone is probably one storm away from being above normal snow again by early January.

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

God, the worst thing about the boring down time is the exhuasting fights over semantics, and whether a given person thought it would avaerage 42 degrees for an 8 day period, or 39 degrees over a 6 day period.

Drains this place of all intrigue and vitality in absolutely brutal fashion.

We're all guilty of it-

I thought it was going to be 51 for a 3 day period.

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

He’s measuring wrong...period!

Trust me, BOX triple checked that it was the right amount. It's just not a favorable location. Not that the old Winthrop location was either, but until they find someone in Boston proper that wants to commit to the job you get what you get.

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