HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: All we heard is a 1-2 week torch with WAN temps right up to 12/25. It’s now a day or 2 maybe . Sure it’s a mild up but talk about an overhyped torch . This was embarrassing We is you I read and saw modelled 4-7 days of AN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: All we heard is a 1-2 week torch with WAN temps right up to 12/25. It’s now a day or 2 maybe . Sure it’s a mild up but talk about an overhyped torch . This was embarrassing I'm not sure where you come up with this. I, nor anyone else said torch for 1-2 weeks. It's a pacific driven pattern that will have lots of 40s for highs and 30s for lows. Pretty mild for this time of year. Throw in some potential for much larger + departures after the 20th to near Christmas. Like Will said earlier, not sure where all the rhetoric is coming from. It's not a paper tiger and has been on track for days. I am also speaking from an overall winter standpoint of cold and snow. We will have neither, hence the relaxation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Your best bet is to hope something comes around Christmas, which is not out of the realm of possibilities. With the EPO ridge cold dump, I'm also aware models may rush it to the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 10, 2018 Author Share Posted December 10, 2018 12/25 15 more days...then it's ACATT (or at least ACMOTT). Patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 There is a huge warming at 10mb across Siberia later in the 11-15 day. But the NAO is most certainly positive for the time being. I'm not sure if some thought that we would see blocking again, but that's not happening for awhile. This is a Pacific pattern, what appears to be -EPO driven. I think we all know the caveats. It could be very wintry if times right, cold and dry, or 80s and mullets of cold-->cutter-->cold. I'll take the chances of the cold helping, but ideally I think I want to see the ridge nudged east a bit. Maybe that happens in Jan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Xmas week is when the cold and snow will come back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Merry Christmas Eve day on the EPS It's noisy and can't really tell, but seems like something may lurk near the 24-26. Just beware the EPO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wasn’t it coming this upcoming weekend? The screamer cutter? To be honest , look at temps thru the 19’th. This is the mild up that just ain’t around. Maybe it’s a mild/ frigid zig zag for a few after? Or are still going mild for days on end a relaxation is kinda meaningless if it’s in the context of comparing to the -5/-8 below average regime we were in, upcoming period seems not that mild 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 10, 2018 Author Share Posted December 10, 2018 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's noisy and can't really tell, but seems like something may lurk near the 24-26. Just beware the EPO. Congrats Utica 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 We may get a few days of above normal out of the norm around here but 7-10 days worth, I don't think so. I never, and I only speak for myself on here, bought into the nearly 10 day mild period others were trying to get at on here. We must be careful, Pattern recognition, remember. Pattern recognition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Any thoughts on if we avoid the rain ? If the past few months are any indication my guess is no . Friday, Saturday and Sunday... Milder temps Fri as northern stream jet lifts northward and high pres moves offshore, promoting onshore flow into southern New England. Seasonably warm with highs in the 40s Fri. Thereafter forecast becomes highly uncertain from Fri night into Sunday. Ensembles and deterministic guidance have all trended away from streams merging with now an unphased scenario this period along with southern stream being more dominant. However individual members from both the 00Z GEFS and EPS really exhibit large spread with many members dry this weekend while other members are very wet. Thus highly uncertain weekend forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 God, the worst thing about the boring down time is the exhuasting fights over semantics, and whether a given person thought it would avaerage 42 degrees for an 8 day period, or 39 degrees over a 6 day period. Drains this place of all intrigue and vitality in absolutely brutal fashion. We're all guilty of it- 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: God, the worst thing about the boring down time is the exhuasting fights over semantics, and whether a given person thought it would avaerage 42 degrees for an 8 day period, or 39 degrees over a 6 day period. Drains this place of all intrigue and vitality in absolutely brutal fashion. We're all guilty of it- and again...its only Monday, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 2 hours ago, dryslot said: Once the winds back NW, See ya Like a different world up here, even the mailman knows what NW winds mean. Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: God, the worst thing about the boring down time is the exhuasting fights over semantics, and whether a given person thought it would avaerage 42 degrees for an 8 day period, or 39 degrees over a 6 day period. Drains this place of all intrigue and vitality. We're all guilty of it. Nah it's just normal chatter for literally anytime of the year that it's not snowing. 12 months of the year, if it's not snowing it's temp talk and semantics lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Your best bet is to hope something comes around Christmas, which is not out of the realm of possibilities. With the EPO ridge cold dump, I'm also aware models may rush it to the East Coast. Currier and Ives had some summer paintings, right? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Weeklies shifted more to a gradient look. Not what i expected. A bit more SE ridging, but cold in Canada. Verbatim the cold is out west, but the east seems to be the battle ground based on the precip anomalies. Definitely not a Nino look. However, a bit more playing with fire. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Man that’s a big Saturday torch on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Leon is coming it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 10, 2018 Author Share Posted December 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Leon is coming it seems. Hopefully we’re on the right side of the goal line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Leon is coming it seems. Despite 2014-15 that winter was so special in my mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Deep winter just about on the doorstep . Almost there friends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Like a different world up here, even the mailman knows what NW winds mean. Snow. Cobalt blue skies and stiff NW winds with a chill, The mailman here knows this too.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 3 hours ago, dryslot said: Once the winds back NW, See ya 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Like a different world up here, even the mailman knows what NW winds mean. Snow. I did LOL a bit when I saw the statement because NW winds mean something more along the lines of “See ya… sunshine.”, or “See ya… whatever is in the way of heading up to the mountain”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, J.Spin said: I did LOL a bit when I saw the statement because NW winds mean something more along the lines of “See ya… sunshine.”, or “See ya… whatever is in the way of heading up to the mountain”. lol, That's a down slope dandy here, Backside of any coastal system here means "0's backside snow out of that wind direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 The warmup this Sunday-Monday is up for grabs. I'll take the Euro version of events with northerly 850 winds vs southwesterly warm breezes from the GFS. And I'll take the storm going well under us as depicted on the Euro vs the cutter to the west as shown on both the GFS and CMC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 14 minutes ago, dryslot said: lol, That's a down slope dandy here, Backside of any coastal system here means "0's backside snow out of that wind direction. Yup...when my wind goes NNW in a coastal I know we're about done. Of course we know how different it is with E flow in the spring. Mank here while powderfreak is talking about blue skies and warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: Yup...when my wind goes NNW in a coastal I know we're about done. Of course we know how different it is with E flow in the spring. Mank here while powderfreak is talking about blue skies and warmth. Exactly, Opposite affect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 I’m honestly confused (sorry everyone). I’m reading that there’s no real warmup, but the actual meteorologists are saying that we get torched full-tilt on/around the solstice. To me it it looks like we’re AN for like a week then ride the line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro machine numbers for BDL, lines are average daily hi/lo black numbers are daily norms average, reds are predicted daily aves, like we said pretty meh on the torch parade which now appears to be pushed back to the 20th? We do this every time when you whip out the 2m bar graphs. I haven't had a chance to look at much today, but usually these verify with an "over". We'll revisit the chart in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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