40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Oct/Nov MEI value only .698...good news for sne imo. I'll be surprised if this season does not feature mainly Miller Bs. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 16 minutes ago, MarkO said: Wasn't there some correlation between weak El Nino modoki and a more northern gradient? NNE has far overperformed climo than southern and regardless of what happens here on out, past snowfall influences final tallies. Another important factor is how much elevation has affected snowfall totals. With a mild mid-December, I believe it increases that gradient. By end December, we're ~1/3 into the snowfall season. Will, are you saying a La Nina pattern is more predictable? BOS is about 20% into their snow climo by 12/31 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 22 minutes ago, MarkO said: Wasn't there some correlation between weak El Nino modoki and a more northern gradient? NNE has far overperformed climo than southern and regardless of what happens here on out, past snowfall influences final tallies. Another important factor is how much elevation has affected snowfall totals. With a mild mid-December, I believe it increases that gradient. By end December, we're ~1/3 into the snowfall season. Will, are you saying a La Nina pattern is more predictable? No. You are thinking of la nina. This weak modoki has behaved accordingly thus far....we had some November snow, and now December has quieted down. Par for the course. As for NNE snow....your general climo dictates that it will snow more early and late in the season...you are closer to the north pole. That is the case independent of ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Oct/Nov MEI value only .698...good news for sne imo. I'll be surprised if this season does not feature mainly Miller Bs. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html Ray, besides the MEI value, what is your rationale for the Miller B evolutions you see ? And, why do you think there will be mainly Miller B's ? ( just from past winter similarities? ) Does blocking enter the equation at all, or lack there of ? I myself think we see a variety of over-running events in my area, plus a mix of Miller B's and A's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 11 minutes ago, frd said: Ray, besides the MEI value, what is your rationale for the Miller B evolutions you see ? And, why do you think there will be mainly Miller B's ? ( just from past winter similarities? ) Does blocking enter the equation at all, or lack there of ? I myself think we see a variety of over-running events in my area, plus a mix of Miller B's and A's. Intensity and structure of el nino (modoki value).....take a look at how other weak modoki events have behaved....2015, 2005, 1978, 1969....research those seasons. The n stream is more involved in that composite. It doesn't mean your area is screwed...I'll bet you did well in those seasons on average. We'll see, though....perhaps this el nino will behave differently, but there is reason to believe that it won't. There are always outlier events, too...we just saw a classic miller A. They could still happen. Dec 26, 2004 also featured a prominent Miller A event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 It depends on the pattern, too.....2010 was a good deal of Miller Bs, but they were squashed south of us. I think that is harder to pull off with a weaker el nino, but never say never. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It depends on the pattern, too.....2010 was a good deal of Miller Bs, but they were squashed south of us. I think that is harder to pull off with a weaker el nino, but never say never. Ray, thanks. I know you addressed this in your seasonal forecast but wanted your updated thoughts as there has been more data coming out lately about the strat. Can the strat overwhelm the Nino in respect that it could push the jet further South and do some crazy things? ( stalls, loops , etc ) Oh, and I quickly checked 1969 as one of those dates and there was an amazing storm in early March, see here : A surface weather analysis of the storm when near its peak intensity on the morning of March 8, 1969 The March 1969 nor'easter was an extratropical cyclone that moved into the Gulf of Mexico on March 5, moving through southern Georgia, then deepened as it moved along the lower Eastern Seaboard, before swinging wide of New England and Atlantic Canada. Heavy snows fell across eastern Maryland, southern Delaware, and Martha's Vineyard in Massachusetts. It was a strong system, with maximum sustained winds of 80 kn (150 km/h) a central pressure close to 950 hPa (28 inHg) while south of Atlantic Canada. The system then moved into the far northern Atlantic Ocean while splitting into two low pressure areas on March 10. Evolution[edit] Late on March 5, a frontal wave moved offshore Galveston, Texas. The system moved along the Gulf coast on March 6.[1] Gale-force winds were confined to behind its prefrontal squall line on March 6. The cyclone moved along the Florida-Georgia border with a central pressure down to 995.0 hectopascals (29.38 inHg). The low tracked up the Eastern Seaboard from the late on the 6th through the morning of the 7th while strengthening quickly, with its central pressure falling to 969.0 hectopascals (28.61 inHg), then with storm-force winds offshore Cape Charles, Virginia. The cyclone tracked offshore New England. By the morning of the 8th, the cyclone's center pressure had fallen to 950.0 hPa (28.05 inHg) while the system developed maximum sustained winds of 80 knots (150 km/h) south of Newfoundlan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 12z GFS shows a vigorous shortwave form a coastal low offshore early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Obviously if there is a mega NAO, then you can have Miller B evolution displaced to the south, as we saw in 2010. I'm not to keen on an actual SSW this season, but we'll see. Regardless, it shouldn't matter a ton bc the NAO should be favorable more often than not, anyway. I wasn't aware of that event in March 1969...good find. Another example of a nice Miller A from that composite. Just think of it like this....mid atlantic is still likely to see above normal snows, but the odds of record snows is higher across sne, than it is in the mid atl....vice versa in a stronger el nino. The ceiling is lower for the mid atl in weak el nino, and lower for sne in mod el nino. I don't think you guys will be screwed because the NAO should be decent, unlike 2015 and 2005. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 10, 2018 Author Share Posted December 10, 2018 Early next week could break right if we get lucky. Anything else showing this potential around 12/18? (my birthday...so maybe I can gin up some good juju) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: Early next week could break right if we get lucky. Anything else showing this potential around 12/18? (my birthday...so maybe I can gin up some good juju) So I’m not sure how old you are but we had a widespread event 12/18/95-day you were born? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 10, 2018 Author Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: So I’m not sure how old you are but we had a widespread event 12/18/95-day you were born? 1st grade. I remember getting dismissed from school lots that year for snowstorms to beat the busses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 December 18, 1995. Gave the Boston area "Heart of our viewing area" a really good snow pack for Christmas of the weak La Nina 1995/1996 season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Greg said: December 18, 1995. Gave the Boston area "Heart of our viewing area" a really good snow pack for Christmas of the weak La Nina 1995/1996 season. I had 10" on the ground that xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 23 minutes ago, TheCloser24 said: 12z GFS shows a vigorous shortwave form a coastal low offshore early next week. Yea. If we only can get the cutoff out of the way a bit and let this sw amplify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Nothing’s breaking next week . Not the right setup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Nice grincher on 12/23 in clown range on GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Nice grincher on 12/23 in clown range on GFS. Looks to change to snow on the backend. My area looks like the same thing happens. I'd take that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 minute ago, leo2000 said: Looks to change to snow on the backend. My area looks like the same thing happens. I'd take that look. Back enders are usually over rated, and will break your heart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 minute ago, leo2000 said: Looks to change to snow on the backend. My area looks like the same thing happens. I'd take that look. I like the odds of a day 13 backlash. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: Back enders are usually over rated, and will break your heart. Especially day 13 back-ender's..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Nobody should be trying to predict anything outside the December 17th storm. Where that truely tracks and sets up will determine where the rest of the storms track afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I like the odds of a day 13 backlash. About as much as a day 6 OES CJ. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: About as much as a day 6 OES CJ. May as well throw in a day 7 windex, inverted trough and severe T-storm to fill out the roster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 How about a day 15 beer can crusher over Quebec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nothing’s breaking next week . Not the right setup I don't know...James might have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 I'd like to fast forward to Christmas week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 I'm not convinced the last week of December turns active/cold. It looks like EPO doesn't turn negative until the 23rd and cold air associated with the EPO tends to head south first. Don't think much happens, snow wise, until after the new year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm not convinced the last week of December turns active/cold. It looks like EPO doesn't turn negative until the 23rd and cold air associated with the EPO tends to head south first. Don't think much happens, snow wise, until after the new year. I have been saying that the holiday week offers the next potential at all..... but that could easily fail, too. After the new year is the better bet, and mid January is absolute go-time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 And remember-just like the impending relaxation the change back may be too fast on the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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