Hazey Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Wow. The gfs just threw the weenies it’s obligatory festive miracle run. Christmas is saved...lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 38 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: nice duration for them That place reminds me of one of those nice little towns snug in the Rockies or the Alps lol. What they got this weekend will be what the northeast gets from late December through early March. I dont mind the thaw if we get a relatively unbroken winter after that. January thaws irk me because they often happen when we are supposed to be near our yearly lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 The most gentlest of gentle mild ups. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, Hoth said: Long range has definitely been trending more serviceable. As has generally been the case in recent years, back end of December is when we start to rock. Yep, like I said, I dont mind the thaw right now, if winter is at its best when it's supposed to be which is from late December thru early March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Post 12/25. Stay the course. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 In all seriousness, there has been a bit more push back of the northern jet as modeling has come into the mid term. It’s compressing the flow which is somewhat muting the warm up to ebbs and flows. Wouldn’t shock me to see potential pop up if timing is right. Sneaky. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Post 12/25. Stay the course. 1000 points of light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Snowing by Dec 20th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 I'm less familiar with the local vernacular shenanigans as I perhaps should be as someone in and out of the forum-sphere for ... 10 years or more. Heh. But what is a "Leon" pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The most gentlest of gentle mild ups. With fluffy pillows, soundscape music, and a nightlight....winter is saved from torching into the 50s, we sleep better now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm less familiar with the local vernacular shenanigans as I perhaps should be as someone in and out of the forum-sphere for ... 10 years or more. Heh. But what is a "Leon" pattern? I’ll let Jerry do the honors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 I'm still not sure on where this mild up has changed very much. It still looks pretty much on track. We're gonna see some pretty good departures during it too. You can have a 46 high that doesn't seem too impressive in SNE but let me know what those 33-34F low temps are gonna do to the departures. I get the feeling that because we won't be setting record highs, it means the mild period is some sort of paper tiger? It's coming and it's going to last over a week. We will compile the numbers at the end of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm still not sure on where this mild up has changed very much. It still looks pretty much on track. We're gonna see some pretty good departures during it too. You can have a 46 high that doesn't seem too impressive in SNE but let me know what those 33-34F low temps are gonna do to the departures. I get the feeling that because we won't be setting record highs, it means the mild period is some sort of paper tiger? It's coming and it's going to last over a week. We will compile the numbers at the end of it. There’s been calls of 7 days or more of 50 or higher . I don’t see how that is remotely possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm still not sure on where this mild up has changed very much. It still looks pretty much on track. We're gonna see some pretty good departures during it too. You can have a 46 high that doesn't seem too impressive in SNE but let me know what those 33-34F low temps are gonna do to the departures. I get the feeling that because we won't be setting record highs, it means the mild period is some sort of paper tiger? It's coming and it's going to last over a week. We will compile the numbers at the end of it. Right. It’s a mild look and the cutter prior to Christmas will boost it. The board has gone insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: There’s been calls of 7 days or more of 50 or higher . I don’t see how that is remotely possible I haven't seen anyone call for 7 straight days of 50F or higher. Not in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I haven't seen anyone call for 7 straight days of 50F or higher. Not in this forum. Between now and the end of December . They’ve been out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 It’s also started. The PAC jet is plowing into the west with the low in AK. Storminess gone except out west. All that’s left is to flush this cold which will happen later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Before then we should see about 5 threads and 300 posts from James about a coating on Wednesday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Right. It’s a mild look and the cutter prior to Christmas will boost it. The board has gone insane. Agreed. The rhetoric is a little over the top on this. It's a pretty solid mild period and the numbers at the end will bear that out. Luckily, it's not going to set in for a very long time. It should be out of here by Xmas...my thoughts the past few days has been hopefully we can sneak in an event before Xmas. The transition period can sometimes be favorable for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Agreed. The rhetoric is a little over the top on this. It's a pretty solid mild period and the numbers at the end will bear that out. Luckily, it's not going to set in for a very long time. It should be out of here by Xmas...my thoughts the past few days has been hopefully we can sneak in an event before Xmas. The transition period can sometimes be favorable for that. That’s the hope. Whatever happens, should really set in after with a good Pacific it seems. It does have a gradient look to start it from what I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Snowing by Dec 20th Sneaky Miller b possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Also, again ... the 00z Euro and the 06z GFS are offering 'hints' at colder lower boundary layer over/during the weekend mess. I believe the complexion of that event/system is still negotiable.. That look is precarious for a 'tuck' event and in fact, the 06z GFS in particular ... it goes out of its way to flash. Deeply enough with cold for a burst of S as far south as southern VT/NH ... The 2-meter temperature product toggling really represents that backward sloshed ageostrophic invastion ... which is actually interesting just because the GFS typically has that BL warm bias. So ~ mid way through the event and what is likely low 40s with ongoing light and moderate rain could suddenly tank EEN-ASH and possibly FIT-BED and eventually into the ooze axis of eastern ORH Hills given time. It's fragile as an overall scenario ... for winter enthusiasts, don't count on it. However, the 06z solution, albeit not impossible, is one in many - it happens to be the most cooler profiled of those that begin hinting this in the cycles yesterday (Euro is/was included in the hinters). I mentioned the 18z last night was close. So we'll see how these details evolve. Sufficed it is to say ... we are all a little punchy and grasping for reasons to rejoice here, but this I believe isn't really that. There are certain markers about that synoptic evolution that are clad. For one, the flow over and across southern and SE Canada from Friday thru next Monday is not smoothed and laminar by any stretch. 'Get passed even November 1 ... and any tendency to 'buckle' that flow inherently prones SNE and all of NE/NYS to these sort of poorly modeled correction schemes - and guess what ? They can happen in an overall warmer than normal pattern, too. And do so without actually harming the warm pattern distinction. We have to consider that tuck/slosh-back phenomenon as a local climate variance ..idiosyncrasy if you will, and can actually be quite disconnected from the larger synoptic scope ... It has do with air-land interface at large scales and the fact that the geography from eastern Canada to ... interior NC actually... has a built in vector at all times .. It draws the lower troposphere SW at least excuse imaginable in that region and given any impetus to do so, and the warm pattern has no idea that the mice are scurrying under foot. It's actually overcome when we get heat in the summer, but it's still always there if muted. Beyond that ...as others have noted, there's an emerging colder look toward the end of the month. Does that time more than less well with the relaxation thing? I haven't been that close to the details on that particular vitriol. seriously though... the last couple cycles of the GFS operational really dome out the eastern EPO domain space before even the end of the month... The Euro operational even hints at that getting going after D8, too. I also like the fact that the wave placement does not have to mean the lengths are very stretched - ...so if there is a fledgling cold load emerging here maybe it doesn't head for the Great Basin first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 John, Leon pattern is referencing 1993-94. Thanksgiving day game in icy DFW with Leon Lett having a key roll. Winter that followed was epic gradient. BOS ended up with 96.3 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Agreed. The rhetoric is a little over the top on this. It's a pretty solid mild period and the numbers at the end will bear that out. Luckily, it's not going to set in for a very long time. It should be out of here by Xmas...my thoughts the past few days has been hopefully we can sneak in an event before Xmas. The transition period can sometimes be favorable for that. at least it looks like we avoid the deluge next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It does have a gradient look to start it from what I saw. Up and in? N or Pike.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Up and in? N or Pike.. "Gradient" implies that said gradient will be latitudinal....ie. north of pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 How's it looking for the Orlando area from 12/21 thru 12/27? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Gradient can mean pike south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The epic December idea is gone, and I don't think we see much snow in the next two weeks. Whats that got to do with punting the next 3 weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 10 hours ago, CoastalWx said: What an event there. Maybe they'll be the biggest winners on the EC for single storm total this winter. Doubt that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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