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December Discussion


NorEastermass128
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1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

We need a hit before Christmas or before NYE, the very latest. 

Almost 100 pages only 9 days into the month...you’d think BOS would already have 20+ on the season. 

I can't wait until we whiff that week and the meltdowns begin in earnest. There will be backups on the Tobin to wait in line to take the plunge. 

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45 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Who said that? EPS only goes out 15 days and had the EPO cold dump then to our west.

Were you not here yesterday?? Many posts about not getting into a better pattern till January 1st. Will take awhile to get rid of the pacific puke. Models always rush things. I think everyone realizes after the relaxation a better pattern is coming. The only area of disagreement is when. I think most of you have snow before Christmas. Probably another storm between Christmas and New Years Day. But I do agree that until the 20th or so it is very boring and normal to slightly above next weekend 

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Par for the course...everything seems normal to me...weenie is as weenie does...year after year after year...and so be it until the end of this board...

I know who to listen to...Dendy, Scoots, Vader, Tippy, #BuriedInStowe, Hanny...we have some stellar green and red tags. They are my gospel amongst mere mustard seeds...

Oops, almost forgot Oceans11-13,8

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The 18z GFS did something the recent Euro runs have been subversively trending toward, and that is to raise eastern Ontario surface pressure as that southern impulse is arriving over the MA ... this run best depicts that ~ 150 hours...

That's not far off Meteorologically from showing why at this particular latitude (to mention ..circumstantial geographic relationship to the continent), it's sometimes possible to make a little chicken salad out of a chicken schit pattern.  It's not there yet and needs work, but at this point, touch more 120 to 144 hour confluence roll out up there and we have a weird under cut ageo thing to deal with. 

Also, 'nother long long shot, but (other's might have mentioned?) there is a Solstice sort of bell saver also presented for say west of ORH in the deep interior.

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27 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Par for the course...everything seems normal to me...weenie is as weenie does...year after year after year...and so be it until the end of this board...

I know who to listen to...Dendy, Scoots, Vader, Tippy, #BuriedInStowe, Hanny...we have some stellar green and red tags. They are my gospel amongst mere mustard seeds...

Oops, almost forgot Oceans11-13,8

What about capecodweatherusaearth?

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23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s always a chance the cold plunges south and delays a few days. That happens more often than not. But......if one were to stick their weenie out and guess...the period near 12/25 give or take may have storminess. Just has that stretched out gradient look.

It’s cold out there, mom always said to put a hat on.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Is the ice actually thick enough already ?

 

Wow, I tried to skate this afternoon at a shallow pond in Concord MA and ice was definitely too thin. I was surprised actually that it wasn't thicker. I did see Wellesley conservation commission post a warning on twitter not to skate accompanied by a person skating at what was identified as a local shallow pond! 

 

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I would not go out on any ice around here yet, although it looks perfect. 

Williamsville Pond, Hubbardston.  Drilled a test hole every 25 feet, 4.5” was the lowest, had one spot over 6”.  Me and the kids had a blast out there today!  Time to dust off the tip ups.

459FC3D0-585B-4806-9103-2A48A8547791.jpeg

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1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said:

We need a hit before Christmas or before NYE, the very latest. 

Almost 100 pages only 9 days into the month...you’d think BOS would already have 20+ on the season. 

I've never seen so much interest in mild ups, warm ups, or torches, or whatever you want to label them.

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Hmm what you guys thinks of what these guys opinions on the Mid Atlantic forum lol. They agree with me, Isotherm and others. 

 

Bob Chill says 

EPS kicking up the -EPO bigly and quicker than the 0z run. Totally different look d13+ in our parts compared to 2+ runs ago. GEFS may win another model war. 

 

Psuhoffman

EPS seems to have caved again to the gefs timing of the cold. Gets the cold into the east by the 24th. Now we just need a wave on that front!   Love that warmups are brief and cold returns ahead of schedule so far this cold season. 

 

IMG_7949.thumb.PNG.15ac71e113af71eeedd08882e1b5f4ea.PNG

 

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8 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

Hmm what you guys thinks of what these guys opinions on the Mid Atlantic forum lol. They agree with me, Isotherm and others. 

 

Bob Chill says 

EPS kicking up the -EPO bigly and quicker than the 0z run. Totally different look d13+ in our parts compared to 2+ runs ago. GEFS may win another model war. 

 

Psuhoffman

EPS seems to have caved again to the gefs timing of the cold. Gets the cold into the east by the 24th. Now we just need a wave on that front!   Love that warmups are brief and cold returns ahead of schedule so far this cold season. 

 

IMG_7949.thumb.PNG.15ac71e113af71eeedd08882e1b5f4ea.PNG

 

I’m not sure what this is supposed to mean when the GEFS went warmer before that. I think it just proves models are volatile in the long range? Until then enjoy a couple of good rain events and hopefully some dews.

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3 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

Hmm what you guys thinks of what these guys opinions on the Mid Atlantic forum lol. They agree with me, Isotherm and others. 

 

Bob Chill says 

EPS kicking up the -EPO bigly and quicker than the 0z run. Totally different look d13+ in our parts compared to 2+ runs ago. GEFS may win another model war. 

 

Psuhoffman

EPS seems to have caved again to the gefs timing of the cold. Gets the cold into the east by the 24th. Now we just need a wave on that front!   Love that warmups are brief and cold returns ahead of schedule so far this cold season. 

 

I mean overall you'll find that even ensembles have a bit of an untethered firehose problem at the end of the run. What's more, comparing one 12z run to one 00z run is not particularly useful. It's often the case that 12z and 00z can have a bit of a yo-yo back and forth for a few runs. 

Finally the GEFS can win some, but more often than not the EPS is superior because of how it is constructed.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nothing else to discuss. There is zero chance of a significant snow event for at least like two weeks.

We could have been discussing more the bn cold we have had the last 3 weeks in all of the region.  Just because there wasn't a significant snow event didn't mean we move right to "warmupville".  We have discussed the cold, but I would bet there have been a lot more posts about the warm up.

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9 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

We could have been discussing more the bn cold we have had the last 3 weeks in all of the region.  Just because there wasn't a significant snow event didn't mean we move right to "warmupville".  We have discussed the cold, but I would bet there have been a lot more posts about the warm up.

Cold is boring...nobody rubs one off to cold and boring and pond ice...

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