Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 6 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thanks. This idea that rural living is healthier is hogwash. Regardless of the pros and cons of each, It’s all about what you make of it. That study wouldn't hold up in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 24 minutes ago, kdxken said: Huh? "Nearly two weeks ago, it was speculated that December was poised to begin like a lion, however not all potential is realized. While the system traversing the area this weekend will deliver yet another round of rainfall to the region as the culmination to what has been one of the wettest autumns on record, the first week of meteorological winter may yet live up to its name. " That is medium range...not seasonal. I hilighted potential that existed, but didn't materialize for us. Down the coast it did. That said, December wasn't anticipated to be a huge month here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: The old Feb64 poster Pretty sure LL told you who it was 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is medium range...not seasonal. What's the link to the seasonal forecast ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, kdxken said: What's the link to the seasonal forecast ? Its in my sig. I mentioned in the seasonal outlook that the first half of December would be favorable, which it was....but the storm did not work out for us. You are correct that I thought we would score something out of it, but I was wrong and we didn't. I expect things to pick up around the holidays, and then the worst of the season to be from mid January through Mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its in my sig. I mentioned in the seasonal outlook that the first half of December would be favorable, which it was....but the storm did not work out for us. You are correct that I thought we would score something out of it, but I was wrong and we didn't. I expect things to pick up around the holidays, and then the worst of the season to be from mid January through Mid February. What do you mean by "worst" mid jan-mid feb Ray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, kdxken said: What's the link to the seasonal forecast ? This segment from my outlook may be helpful for you..sorry for the OT. Don't want to make the thread about me, so feel free to move it mods. "The current scandinavian ridge should retrograde towards Greenland for the first couple of weeks of December, some significant snows are likely for much of New England. The PNA may struggle to become established this early, however if it can, the northern mid atlantic may join the fray. The blocking pattern should break down mid month, and there will likely be Grinch storm in the vicinity of Christmas, unlike last season.Temperatures should average out near normal for most of the east by month's end, biased colder early, and milder late. If anything, slightly above average for the mid atlantic, and below average in New England". Ironically enough, it is the southeastern states of Virginia and North Carolina that are receiving the major snows since the PNA did join forces with high latitude blocking, but this is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. The blocking did indeed materialize, and is on borrowed time, as advertised. "The NAO blocking breaks down in time for the holidays, go figure, however around this time the Pacific side grows more supportive, so this mid winter break will not be as prolonged, nor as mild as last season, especially across New England. The month should average anywhere from 1-2 degrees above normal across New England, and 2-3 degrees above normal beneath the 40th parallel. The month of January looks a lot like 2015 and 2005, and we expect a similar evolution. Complete with a monster Archambault event anywhere from January 20th to February 8th, after which the Atlantic couples with the Pacific to induce cross polar flow and set the stage for a memorable February". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Just now, 512high said: What do you mean by "worst" mid jan-mid feb Ray? Most severe winter stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its in my sig. I mentioned in the seasonal outlook that the first half of December would be favorable, which it was....but the storm did not work out for us. You are correct that I thought we would score something out of it, but I was wrong and we didn't. I expect things to pick up around the holidays, and then the worst of the season to be from mid January through Mid February. Thanks I found it . I agree with you on mid January to mid February that always is the heart of the winter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Most severe winter stretch. Just so we are on the same page , you mean possibly large type storms....correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 15 minutes ago, kdxken said: Thanks I found it . I agree with you on mid January to mid February that always is the heart of the winter . Climowise yes....but that does not always verify as the heart of winter. Early February was anything but last season, as predicted. This it was portrayed in my outlook as a "bookend" season...early and late focused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Pats lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, 512high said: Just so we are on the same page , you mean possibly large type storms....correct? 1/20-2/20 should net 2 KUs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 1/20-2/20 should net 2 KUs. Thanks..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Pretty sure LL told you who it was He did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Pretty sure LL told you who it was I figured someone at Petes board had spilled the beans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: I figured someone at Petes board had spilled the beans I should’ve gotten it anyway. Pretty easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 22 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Pretty sure LL told you who it was We knew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: I figured someone at Petes board had spilled the beans Vim toot! I miss him....Pete too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 gefs now have a pre Christmas cutter a few days earlier. That’s not a cave lol. Post 12/25. I’ve said that for days and it looks pretty good right now give or take. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zach’s Pop Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 The changes the EPS made in 24 hours is lol. Mountain Torgue and Isotherm FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Next weekends cutter is starting to morph into something else on the gfs. Seems to be a bit of a sh it streak passing to the north pushing the system more eastward. Not sure it will mean anything due to lack of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zach’s Pop Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: gefs now have a pre Christmas cutter a few days earlier. That’s not a cave lol. Post 12/25. I’ve said that for days and it looks pretty good right now give or take. Your EPS caved man. Sorry you can’t admit it. Just good to see you now saying post Christmas looks good. However till the time comes you will be singing Bing Crosby’s White Christmas while unwrapping your latest addition of EPS Weekly 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: gefs now have a pre Christmas cutter a few days earlier. That’s not a cave lol. Post 12/25. I’ve said that for days and it looks pretty good right now give or take. Agree. No one here is arguing against Tom's (Isotherm's) assertions...only question is how quickly does it evolve. I say its a step down process....threats after xmas, lock-down mid January....all hell breaks loose 1/20 and beyond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Just now, Zach’s Pop said: Your EPS caved man. Sorry you can’t admit it. Just good to see you now saying post Christmas looks good. However till the time comes you will be singing Bing Crosby’s White Christmas while unwrapping your latest addition of EPS Weekly I’ve said post 12/25 for 10 days. You realize the GEFS made some warmer changes prior to Christmas too right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 This relaxation couldn’t have been better modeled. Some seem to buy other variables to argue against it, but it’s coming. I also am not sure why some are touting changes in a day 15 prog are concrete. That EPO ridge could easily extend the relaxation as we’ve seen in the past with cold diving south too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Yep. GEFS was ACATT for like 12/19-12/20 and beyond in earlier runs. It has gone warmer. EPS still looks like crap until about 12/23-12/24....hopefully we can sneak something in before Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This relaxation couldn’t have been better modeled. Some seem to buy other variables to argue against it, but it’s coming. I also am not sure why some are touting changes in a day 15 prog are concrete. That EPO ridge could easily extend the relaxation as we’ve seen in the past with cold diving south too. I mean what is the major difference there at that lead time? The ridge is pushed off the East Coast a little farther. Still has the potential for a cutter/mild weather in there even in the caved version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 A mInor warmup less than a week long sure has garnered a ton of posts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 13 minutes ago, Zach’s Pop said: The changes the EPS made in 24 hours is lol. Mountain Torgue and Isotherm FTW. That’s practically the same look just sped up. Hopefully you get ‘saved by the bell’ soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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