Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Mild up should wipe it out if not swing us positive imho. We depend on last 7 days of December to pull us back down. A couple to 7 days of 40’s won’t come close . We’re back to normal week of the 20th and you can already see model signs of a coastal transfer / snow threat at some point either side of the 25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: How gentle you thinkin, DiT? As gentle as the boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: A couple to 7 days of 40’s won’t come close . We’re back to normal week of the 20th and you can already see model signs of a coastal transfer / snow threat at some point either side of the 25th Ever the eternal optimist.....Canada will be flushed. It will take time to get cold again. 12/20-24 look AOA normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Ever the eternal optimist.....Canada will be flushed. It will take time to get cold again. 12/20-24 look AOA normal. It won’t be cold by the 20th , but looks near normal. Folks forget .. even an AN Canada is cold and snow covered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 hour ago, weathafella said: That’s high impact. RDU averages 4 inches per year. They got 22 (Cary) in 2000. Literally shut down schools for 1 full week. My sister said they did not plow main road for 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: They got 22 (Cary) in 2000. Literally shut down schools for 1 full week. My sister said they did not plow main road for 3 days. That was early too...like near 12/1. I remember that was progged in a 24 hour forecast to whack us here. Mike Seidel showed up. Storm whiffed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Who the hell is Zach's Pop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Who the hell is Zach's Pop? The old Feb64 poster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: The old Feb64 poster You sure? I thought it was a NJ poster who’s name escapes me for the time being... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Could be another backloaded winter (Jan 20 onwards) OR could be that winter gets going in the last week of December? Both.........Most intense starts latter in January, but there will be chances after xmas and into the new year. It won't be as slow a start as 2015 imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: You sure? I thought it was a NJ poster who’s name escapes me for the time being... Pretty sure Brian traced the IP address Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pretty sure Brian traced the IP address I hadn’t, but good call. It’s him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 FWIW GEPS is pretty aggressive in making it cold here before 12/25. That’s a sweet pattern ...would be nice to have it right. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 White Thanksgiving and White Christmas in the same year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 What terrible stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Zach’s Pop said: That’s funny. At one time HM was welcome here. Sadly the METS left here can only look at model runs and tell us what to expect. Perhaps HM could send you a jock strap of his. Maybe you could grow into someday W.T.F. is this nonsense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: W.T.F. is this nonsense? When weenies don't get their bottle, they become agitated. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: When weenies don't get their bottle, they become agitated. Even I, young Padawan weenie, am starting to resent the folks who refuse any good info because it doesn’t sync up with their wishes. There is something very relieving about submitting to the forces of nature. It’s beautiful. Nature, no matter what, will reign paramount to the romantic narratives of the human being. Happy Sunday friends let’s enjoy the thaw and hope it precedes a nice little winter pattern. Till then, thank you to Scott, Tip, ORHWxman and the other heavy hitters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Even I, young Padawan weenie, am starting to resent the folks who refuse any good info because it doesn’t sync up with their wishes. There is something very relieving about submitting to the forces of nature. It’s beautiful. Nature, no matter what, will reign paramount to the romantic narratives of the human being. Happy Sunday friends let’s enjoy the thaw and hope it precedes a nice little winter pattern. Till then, thank you to Scott, Tip, ORHWxman and the other heavy hitters. ...This does not mean that you are losing the Weenie Tag anytime soon. Brownie points don't work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 17 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: ...This does not mean that you are losing the Weenie Tag anytime soon. Brownie points don't work. Fine with me. I’m still a weenie. Just a self-loathing one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I was more speaking of the scope of its coverage. It's a pretty large shortwave...not one of these little compact deals that may be deeper or higher vorticity...but these larger ones can really build up a large thermal gradient in terms of aerial coverage and they have an impressive fetch of moisture advection. If we had been able to phase this sucker into pushing further north, could've been pretty fun. But as is, good for the folks in S VA...an area that often gets left out. Prettt epic there. Not to come off high handed, but ... that really wasn't in the cards going back several days in my mind. I've never been a big fan of the over-the-north-pole savior scenario. Mainly because I've never actually seen that happen. heh. It'd be awesome to see that! Mostly ... I've seen variations on subsume scenarios - it's when/where a more southerly S/W trekking east under a western end of a SPV. It fragments and comes south ... dives into the backside .... the two fuse ... go nuts etc. But even more open-waved, two and trip. steam phasers carry some semblance or echo of the same thing, just maybe less coherently obvious because the N-stream isn't bifurcating before hand. But if different scales are blown out and less smoothed, it may demonstrate the similarities more clearly. As it were... I believe what happened leading this this situation in the south was that the circulation N demoed some idiosyncratic timing, on whole - which even if an embedded SW/ wave was coming it wouldn't have been available. The NAO index flipped, too ...maybe related... Either way, N jet is rolling out as this thing arrived. That "allowed" the southern stream to remain in tact. To make sense of that statement ... when the band went N, the gradients overall become less in tandem... and that's allowing relatively paltry wind max(ing) to enter that region without getting otherwise lost like it typically would. If the relaxation hadn't happened... it might have even been less down S even. I jut think the models were dead wrong, all of them... when this was out around D8 or 9 ... which of course isn't really the 'fault' of the models given that range. But this thing just simply modulated and was handled well within a realistic model expectation, and the last four or so days of consternation we all took turns explaining how this "could" do x-y-z ... heh, which is a dangerous to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Nice map, also looks like the MJO is going into phase 5 which is good for cold weather here in December. This is around the 23rd. However, we have to watch a possible vortex displacement even a complete split. This would likely halt this warm pattern has is coming up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes they did. It was kind of an all or nothing though. Like 80% of the time that a phase would whiff, it will stay locked into the same track...but in the 1 out of ~5 times or so that they screwed up and the northern stream phases in, we probably would have seen a monster solution much further north. The large scale PV location was pretty stable but the spokes around it were where any potential mishap could happen. Oddly enough, dProg/dt showed that there was uncharacteristically little disagreement in surface low position run to run, but aloft the forcing responsible for the northern edge had quite a bit of variation. It's not often you see modeling waffle on upper level features but not on surface features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 EPS is pretty nice-similar to GEPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 2 hours ago, weathafella said: FWIW GEPS is pretty aggressive in making it cold here before 12/25. That’s a sweet pattern ...would be nice to have it right. Don't know how good the GEPS is with the 2m temps, but after next weekend, even NYC doesn't get above 42°F for any day, with most days having highs in the upper 30's to 40°F. Doesn't seem too bad to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 28 minutes ago, weathafella said: EPS is pretty nice-similar to GEPS. Caved to the gefs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Enjoy the warmup. We’ll look good in a couple weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 8 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Ray continues to rake! Nailing this season to date. Huh? "Nearly two weeks ago, it was speculated that December was poised to begin like a lion, however not all potential is realized. While the system traversing the area this weekend will deliver yet another round of rainfall to the region as the culmination to what has been one of the wettest autumns on record, the first week of meteorological winter may yet live up to its name. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Lol Fins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol Fins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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