December Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

Shutout (good) or shoutout (bad)?

The latter...meaning that I expect it.

I have never been on board for a banner December, and it worries me absolutely zero percent.

I still feel that we will get something decent this month, though...if we don't, then its just bad luck....this is not Dec 2014 or 2006.

Very likely something the last week of the month....not crazy about the mid month deal for much snow in our area.

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm fine with how this is shaking out...even gave the grinch a shoutout in the outlook.

I mean it’s fairly common for December’s to be slow in ninos. But, I think what’s getting lost is the fact that we had a good pattern to grab something and luck failed us. You don’t get snow in the south without a good look. Probably not comfort to some,  but it’s true. 

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean it’s fairly common for December’s to be slow in ninos. But, I think what’s getting lost is the fact that we had a good pattern to grab something and luck failed us. You don’t get snow in the south without a good look. Probably not comfort to some,  but it’s true. 

And we did get snow.  It’s not our fault the Logan spotter slept through the midnight measuring on the night of 11/15 and woke the next morning after hours of rain.

[NorEastermass128]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The latter...meaning that I expect it.

I have never been on board for a banner December, and it worries me absolutely zero percent.

I still feel that we will get something decent this month, though...if we don't, then its just bad luck....this is not Dec 2014 or 2006.

Very likely something the last week of the month....not crazy about the mid month deal for much snow in our area.

That's what I thought.  Not as "grinchy" if there's no snow already on the ground.  It's only especially "grinchy" when our good pack gets stolen from under our feet in the days leading up to Christmas.

[NorEastermass128]

FYSA - There will be plenty of melts if next weekend's deluge verifies with cold/dry following or threats of more cutters in the week following. It should be a good show.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

And we did get snow.  It’s not our fault the Logan spotter slept through the midnight measuring on the night of 11/15 and woke the next morning after hours of rain.

I meant so far in  December.  But yeah, November was good.

[Typhoon Tip]

What is this ... 'bowling season' ? 

I see that all the time ... circa early Aprils.  The 500 mb delivereth unto the flow 'neath the 40th interval, a four or more contoured closing low, and it trundles and bores its way through the flow ...All the while, one might be visualizing some deep canyon in the surface pressure as outlined by concomitant dart-board assortment of isobars ...only, whaaa?  What gives! The low is comparatively not there... only some pallid reflection of the galaxy above.  

What's going on in Aprils ...is that the mid troposphere is still sending cold plumes into the levels, over middle latitudes ... However, the surface "ambient" baroclinicity and gradients therein ...are normalizing because of the ever increasing solar incidence.  Without those lower gradients ... frontal slopes down extend as vertically in the atmosphere. Thus, the restoring jets (exit-entrance mass-conservation...) weaken; thus, don't induce as much rising motion in the atmosphere. With less overall UVM,...that requires less lowering surface pressure. 

For others ...that means, weak storm    

What looks like a big big bomb is often vertically (or approximating...) a "vertically stacked" structure where the pressure pattern is nearly (usually wobbling around nearby) collocated within the axis of the closed or quasi-closed low ("quasi," means 'sort of ') ... because it is still moving along with the general trajectory of the L/W propagation of/through the general circulation medium, albeit significantly severed.  Quasi is term that is often floated to describe atmospheric phenomenon for any youngin's who have been dimmed by the e-zombie plague and haven't yet reported for 'droid CPU refit and upgrades....

Everyone else ... knows what I mean. 

Anyway, it's odd to see that now, as the season's aging toward middle December ... It's anomalous per my own observations to witness waning gradients time with a powerful middle troposphere wave over top like that, at this time of year. 

To be honest... I've seen that more frequently over the past ten years. Granted, modeling is only really just come out of its infancy (despite all awe and conceits), so ...  But, I don't normally bring it up. Immediately, it drives me to GW distraction, and of course since being that this is a weather board (and therefore supposedly at least indirectly Meteorological ... ) the temerity to suggest anything like that just has to roll eyes.

I mean... the nerve! To mean or suggest that GW can reflect in the dailies at any given time?!  Charlatan ...

Unfortunately, that's a popularized mantra. Usually, one used to deny, by those who have borrowed from adage, "climate doesn't drive weather; weather drives climate," or trying to sound smart ..or all the above.  Truth is... that presupposes ... uh, only blocks the understanding (and truth) that eventually ... as enough GW has happened, you start seeing odd behaviors ... like, spring tapestry in the synoptics of deep winter month. 

Of course, the knee-jerk impulse keyboard pounder is pulverizing letters upon reading that December is a 'deep' winter month. Either that, or thumb hammering away upon their filthy germ phage phone interfaces ...  don't bother.  I've seen it in the other months, too, with also...increasing frequency.  The rate of said increase is slow, tho.  Heh.. As rapid as the present GW is purported to be relative to typical geological changes (presently, ...one of if not the fastest registering change out side of a comet impact when employing Paleoclimate sciences), it crawls along inside of single life spans. ...Otherwise, you're really in trouble... OH wait - 

Wow, got my self way digressed...  Anyway, the summary version of all this is that there is a dearth of cold air lower than the ~ 50th parallel (in general) during the next week to 10 days, and that slacking of cold is (I suspect..) detrimental to cyclone intensities.  I don't know if it will last... Not saying anything predictive about it/that.. But, that big deep mid level vortex in the operational GFS and the Euro appears to be floating over top a rotted (as some like to say) lower level air mass.   It could change..  In fact, the 06z did try to buckle-up a small spit of confluence NNW of Maine, and send a bit of a cold pulse .. .I mean, point being... we here in SNE are really sore thumbin' it at all times and something subtle and most likely poorly if at all assessing in modeling at this sort of time range ... blah blah.. .

 

[ORH_wxman]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean it’s fairly common for December’s to be slow in ninos. But, I think what’s getting lost is the fact that we had a good pattern to grab something and luck failed us. You don’t get snow in the south without a good look. Probably not comfort to some,  but it’s true. 

Yeah we had ducks on the pond and the pitcher served us up a meatball and we whiffed....it sucks, but it happens. Hopefully between next week and Christmas we can rope a double on a nasty breaking ball low and away....sometimes we score in meh patterns.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean it’s fairly common for December’s to be slow in ninos. But, I think what’s getting lost is the fact that we had a good pattern to grab something and luck failed us. You don’t get snow in the south without a good look. Probably not comfort to some,  but it’s true. 

But ... didn't we have an above climo snowy Novie ?  With a near or at historic cold wave to boot? 

Maybe our standards are a little high, huh - hahaha.

I know what you mean though ... As fun as those were, things could have been even more entertaining for the immortally wounded winter weather enthusiast.  

Yeah... but, that's sorta true in every favorable pattern - or their antithesis .. isn't it?  Something seems to always get left on the field.  A couple ducks fly away even when the hunter spins a Gatling gun... Sometimes even the biggest fish (damn) squirts away before the stick of dynamite- but you gloat in belly-uppers anyway.  It's like thresholds of entertainment ... once the orgasmic fervency gets above a certain glow ... we're blinded from seeing what we've missed. 

Anyway, not sure if/how to parse out being grateful vs feeling jilted by the last month buuut... I really don't. I don't feel the latter, at all...  In fact, my private covet at this time? If we had a 60 F f'n Xmass ...I wonder if that would only neutralize that whopper single digit Thanks Giggedy... But ooh, we'll opine and bitch like it's been demonically divined when we go for surreal walks under cobalt blue swashed cirrus skies, in shorts and t-shirts just before turkey hits the table on the 25th... Care of Jerry ...or, "Chinese"    

[weathafella]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

But ... didn't we have an above climo snowy Novie ?  With a near or at historic cold wave to boot? 

Maybe our standards are a little high, huh - hahaha.

I know what you mean though ... As fun as those were, things could have been even more entertaining for the immortally wounded winter weather enthusiast.  

Yeah... but, that's sorta true in every favorable pattern - or their antithesis .. isn't it?  Something seems to always get left on the field.  A couple ducks fly away even when the hunter spins a Gating gun... Sometimes even the biggest fish (damn) squirts away before the stick of dynamite- but you gloat in belly-uppers anyway.  It's like thresholds of entertainment ... once the orgasmic fervency gets above a certain glow ... we're blinded from seeing what we've missed. 

Anyway, not sure if/how to parse out being grateful vs feeling jilted by the last month buuut... I really don't. I don't feel the latter, at all...  In fact, my private covet at this time? If we had a 60 F f'n Xmass ...I wonder if that would only neutralize that whopper single digit Thanks Giggedy... But ooh, we'll opine and bitch like it's been demonically divined when we go for surreal walks under cobalt blue swashed cirrus skies, in shorts and t-shirts just before we go out for Chinese food on the 25th...  

FYP

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

FYP

Perfect! hahaha ... fixed

see people, this is why it is of paramount importance that publisher's employ effective editorial teams ... 

[MJOatleast7]

57 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

eventually ... as enough GW has happened, you start seeing odd behaviors ... like, spring tapestry in the synoptics of deep winter month. 

 

and wouldn't such weirdness show up first in the lower troposphere...I mean, CO2 is a heavy gas, so its effects should in theory be concentrated there. Meanwhile you have more normal synoptics above it with less CO2 concentration, where the gradients still exist.

Could also speak to the strength of the PV despite a radically warming Arctic surface... the added heat simply isn't getting to the mid-and upper troposphere (not to mention the stratosphere) so you can actually have it colder there. Just speculating.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said:

That's what I thought.  Not as "grinchy" if there's no snow already on the ground.  It's only especially "grinchy" when our good pack gets stolen from under our feet in the days leading up to Christmas.

Agree fully.  In 20 Decembers we've had 12 with Grinch storms in/around the 25th.  Another 3 had Grinch-ey wx but on bare ground.  (3 years ago, the Christmastime wx made me wonder if it was time to get out the rototiller.)  After last year's super anti-Grinch, I'm all set for the usual to return.  At least there's a solid pack here that should withstand short of a serious flood-producer.

[CoastalWx]

We pray for Ray’s inverted finger on the gfs. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

We pray for Ray’s inverted finger on the gfs. 

When?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When?

Wed night. More for ern areas verbatim. But probably won’t happen.

[Typhoon Tip]

41 minutes ago, MJOatleast7 said:

and wouldn't such weirdness show up first in the lower troposphere...I mean, CO2 is a heavy gas, so its effects should in theory be concentrated there. Meanwhile you have more normal synoptics above it with less CO2 concentration, where the gradients still exist.

Could also speak to the strength of the PV despite a radically warming Arctic surface... the added heat simply isn't getting to the mid-and upper troposphere (not to mention the stratosphere) so you can actually have it colder there. Just speculating.

Mm, not sure ...it's an interesting thought. I'm not sure what the residence rates is vs turbulent mixing ..vs rate of radiation 'trapping' in the total model of the atmosphere is. Obviously, we are just making conjecture here based of varying levels of informed background, but sufficed it is to say, that is a complex set of governing relationships to answer that implicit question. 

Some aspects we do know... Like, C02 in concentration is heavier than regular homogenized Terran atmosphere. It pools in low places ..etc.  That does lend to an assertion that the ground sources may 'collect' C02 ...at least for awhile/some sort of time dependency, until some form or another of turbulent mixing can 'over-turn' the deep layer troposphere and bust open any said/such pooling masses.  

C02 pooling famously occurred near Lake Nyos, Cameroon in Africa... I think it was the mid 1980's just while typing here... But that lake had been 'capping' huge stows of C02 in the bottom layers, where pressure exerted by water had stopped diffusion through the water column ... The system became unstable.  No sooner did the nearby volcano (which is/was thought to have loaded the lake in the first place at depth plumbing) send tremors into the water column and it overturned, sending the C02 in huge plume(s) to the surface... where it immediately pooled at specific weight greater than the surrounding ambient atmosphere... Then it of course 'flows' like water to the lowest point it can find ... where, sadly, an entire village was sleeping ... for ever, because of that. 

That is an extreme example of C02 at mass not immediately dispersing into surrounding air... Don't know about smoke stack, automobile and power generation sources in general, though ...  But it does seem worth it to consider, because en masse ... these sources might outpace the background physical processes that mix the atmosphere.   Interesting...

Whether these facets would effect model processing ... I couldn't begin to fathom.  Firstly, we'd need to know if these ancillary physics are even part of the base equations..   We didn't learn Navier Stokes for differentiating atmospheric chemistries... PV=NRT ...  doesn't care really what goes into the "N" term.. but the "R" constant might for subtly differentiated quantities of a less than totally homogenized gas column. 

 

[NorEastermass128]

Next weekend's cutter looks like a deluge.  GL NNE.

[Hazey]

Hard to take the GFS seriously in the long range. I know its post truncation but from hr 222 to 264, the slp is bouncing all over the place. But if one were to believe, It does look slightly better overall after the cutter.

[Typhoon Tip]

Slow day at the office allows time to bounce around the web here and there.... 

I happened across this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Canadian_blizzard_of_March_1971

Thing is, ...I don't recall that winter being exceptional south of the border.   Which is interesting ... considering how nearby  eastern Canada is to the Lakes-OV-NE corridor(s)...  

There were some stem-wound systems up the upper MA/NE coasts (I think.. ), but 'wonder where  '70-'71 really ranks.  It's sort of an amusing play on the 'IMBY' phenomenon meme that from the old Eastern days... and how that phenomenon extends to relative scales, too. 

Like, we probably think of that winter as above normal snow and cold... solid performer.. and swear by that - or not.  Point being, it would be based upon entirely, one's own experience(s).  But, in a large scoped scientific analysis, that could be the biggest winter ever for "eastern N/A" when integrating all geographies.  fascinating - 

[dryslot]

14 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Hard to take the GFS seriously in the long range. I know its post truncation but from hr 222 to 264, the slp is bouncing all over the place. But if one were to believe, It does look slightly better overall after the cutter.

And nobody on here should.

[weathafella]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Slow day at the office allows time to bounce around the web here and there.... 

I happened across this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Canadian_blizzard_of_March_1971

Thing is, ...I don't recall that winter being exceptional south of the border.   Which is interesting ... considering how nearby  eastern Canada is to the Lakes-OV-NE corridor(s)...  

There were some stem-wound systems up the upper MA/NE coasts (I think.. ), but 'wonder where  '70-'71 really ranks.  It's sort of an amusing play on the 'IMBY' phenomenon meme that from the old Eastern days... and how that phenomenon extends to relative scales, too. 

Like, we probably think of that winter as above normal snow and cold... solid performer.. and swear by that - or not.  Point being, it would be based upon entirely, one's own experience(s).  But, in a large scoped scientific analysis, that could be the biggest winter ever for "eastern N/A" when integrating all geographies.  fascinating - 

1970-71 was a good snow winter 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

So many shortwaves rounding this complicated pattern. Potential is there though, i’m in.  

[IrishRob17]

56 minutes ago, weathafella said:

1970-71 was a good snow winter 

With a long lasting pack too from what I've seen.

[40/70 Benchmark]

70-71 was a colder 07-08....epic December and NNE season.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

70-71 was a colder 07-08....epic December and NNE season.

The guy next town over in Hingham had 31.1” that month with a 10” pack for Santa. Only a few tenths behind 2008 which was all time.

[dryslot]

Finished that season with 144.9", Second all time up here.

[Typhoon Tip]

Interesting... seems that winter might have been shadowed amid the "culture of winter enthusiasm" by the epicosity of the latter years of that decade ... sort of forgotten maybe a little.  I know that 76 through 79 had some truly awesome year for us S of the border.  Such as the Buffalo lake blits of '77 and then the historic events the following year...  

[IrishRob17]

34 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

With a long lasting pack too from what I've seen.

Just looking at Plymouth, NH in the middle of March '71 the depth reached 40", started April with 25".

[dendrite]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The guy next town over in Hingham had 31.1” that month with a 10” pack for Santa. Only a few tenths behind 2008 which was all time.

Most festive holiday season ever? Back when Xmas Eve/Christmas were winter days.

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-BF8D8210-5429-40E5-9BDC-48DDDA318E47.pdf