December Discussion

[mahk_webstah]

35 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Honestly, a better, more concise read ^ 

If you can synthesize the ideas into those dumb sentences, why the need to write essays sourced mostly from thesaurus.com?

 

 

 I have a better idea. Why don’t you actually read it slowly and ponder and think about it. The inability of people under 25 years of age to write a complete sentence or express one thought with any level of nuance is gone.   Would he be better if you wrote it in text abbreviations with emoji‘s? Would that help? 

[ORH_wxman]

Yes we need that phase to happen big time and sooner. Not looking promising though. Haven't seen it trend that way the past two cycles. 

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

Thanks. It doesn’t look like it is potentially that far away in the modeling from happening. Not showing signs of doing it right now but the phase doesn’t look like Hail Mary on that map. 

[dryslot]

Speed up that northern stream s/w or slow down the southern stream one, Right now the southern s/w is out ahead of the one dropping south out of the dakotas.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Thru sat night it has potential then it gets shoved. Loop the cyclonic vorticity on this gfs run. I was gonna wait until Friday to call Ginxy my uncle but I’m calling it today. 

It’s early Dec anyways, we got good stuff moving forward. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Anyways a 2 week relaxation period give or take has been well advertised. Time to drink until Christmas.

You've been on this for a long while now... props to y'all!    

I was bit more apprehensive a while back - I recall Will and I exchanging some thoughts, owning to fact that "cool" seemed always "win" over "warm" so to speak, in recent times, and that (at least) for me in the conversation, it wasn't abundantly clear if 'relaxation' might end up morphing into another misty failed 18 to 24 hour warm sector.   

I think now in retrospect ... we might have started that relaxing/moderating even ten days ago...  shortly after the Thanks Giggedy useless cold in the gut.  Altho ... I may be douchy there - I was in Va Beach/southern NJ for 10 days so I might have missed if anything did happen from that?  

Whatever, there may be some semantic interpretation but being 10  F at noon on the 23rd of November ... ya pretty much have to "relax" going forward...otherwise, that would take some pretty exotic rareness, otherwise.   But excluding that... the "pattern" that yielded the November snow storm and the cold the week later, ...all of that is a thing of the past, and the present is absolutely a "warmer paradigm," and therefor should be ruled successful as long-ish lead prognostic effort... Considering those last 15 days of last month ... folks can'g get longevity ... etc...this early. 

And, it is true - we can snow in the overall look now, it's just not ... it wasn't gonna stay like it was anyway so it's all dumb anyway..geez

[Hazey]

Don Sutherland made a nice post in the NYC forum. Worth a read and stay the course.

[Cold Miser]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We are going to have events between now an xmas....some of the posters in here have borderline tendencies in that its all or nothing.

We may still have a grinch, but it is what it is.

Last year's Christmas, although not a huge snow event was one of the best anti-Grinch one's in a while. Grinch being called right up to a few days before only to wake up with a decent, small snow event Christmas Day.  Not a 2 footer, but awesome just the same.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Cold Miser said:

Last year's Christmas, although not a huge snow event was one of the best anti-Grinch one's in a while. Grinch being called right up to a few days before only to wake up with a decent, small snow event Christmas Day.  Not a 2 footer, but awesome just the same.

It finally had a true Christmas spirit, weather wise. 

[Cold Miser]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It finally had a true Christmas spirit, weather wise. 

Yeah.  Was nice.  Then the train of cold continued.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

It was cold for Dec too, but the run before that had a warm Dec. As always, buyer beware. Hopefully it’s right. 

is there still a chance that Dec averages below normal? Sure we mild up for couple of weeks, but 1st week is bn and if the last 10 days average below? 

[EastonSN+]

22 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Don Sutherland made a nice post in the NYC forum. Worth a read and stay the course.

Great post as always.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Is blizz dangling from the rafters at 1k

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Is blizz dangling from the rafters at 1k

Not sure why....looks like we may miss out on one period. All of our best winters had frustrating periods. That's why I have never hit 200" yet.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not sure why....looks like we may miss out on one period. All of our best winters had frustrating periods. That's why I have never hit 200" yet.

They certainly have ...which is why this climo is meh for a snow lover 

But just mostly teasing that when I said this period looks cold and dry, I am greated with “ lol we are guaranteed 2 snow events this week”. 

[NorEastermass128]

I think you all should do a year or two in a non-snowy climate.  It helps with your patience.  

I experienced a ratter in DC (1" sleet, dusting of snow for the entire winter) which makes these frustrating periods easier to deal with.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

They certainly have ...which is why this climo is meh for a snow lover 

But just mostly teasing that when I said this period looks cold and dry, I am greated with “ lol we are guaranteed 2 snow events this week”. 

Who guaranteed two snow events this week?

I honestly thought one would work out for some modest snows, but I was wrong, it looks like.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

They certainly have ...which is why this climo is meh for a snow lover 

But just mostly teasing that when I said this period looks cold and dry, I am greated with “ lol we are guaranteed 2 snow events this week”. 

Hard pressed to find a better area for synoptic snows around the globe at this latitude below 5000' in elevation.

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Who guaranteed two snow events this week?

I honestly thought one would work out for some modest snows, but I was wrong, it looks like.

Kevin said the worst case scenario for 12/5 was an advisory event south of the pike. 

[Damage In Tolland]

That’s not guaranteeing two snow events 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

 I have a better idea. Why don’t you actually read it slowly and ponder and think about it. The inability of people under 25 years of age to write a complete sentence or express one thought with any level of nuance is gone.   Would he be better if you wrote it in text abbreviations with emoji‘s? Would that help? 

I agree with a lot of what you said above.  And I hate the emoji generation and the way a lot of young kids now a days cannot write complete sentences as well...it's becoming a lost art for sure.   And this is not a cut on Tip, But some of the wording is just very tough to get through at times.  I think the guy is incredibly intelligent...and really knows his Atmospheric science; but it's almost to the point that it takes too much time to figure out what he's really trying to say.   Will writes the same thing and you breeze right through it, and know exactly what he's talking about and you're good to go.    

 

I don't doubt at all that Tip is much more intelligent than I am...and more so than most folks for that matter.  And I appreciate a good vocabulary and good grammar as much as the next person.  I just find that some posts are a lil tough to get through/ figure out...when they don't necessarily have to be.   But, to each their own.  

[mahk_webstah]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I agree with a lot of what you said above.  And I hate the emoji generation and the way a lot of young kids now a days cannot write complete sentences as well...it's becoming a lost art for sure.   And this is not a cut on Tip, But some of the wording is just very tough to get through at times.  I think the guy is incredibly intelligent...and really knows his Atmospheric science; but it's almost to the point that it takes too much time to figure out what he's really trying to say.   Will writes the same thing and you breeze right through it, and know exactly what he's talking about and you're good to go.    

 

I don't doubt at all that Tip is much more intelligent than I am...and more so than most folks for that matter.  And I appreciate a good vocabulary and good grammar as much as the next person.  I just find that some posts are a lil tough to get through/ figure out...when they don't necessarily have to be.   But, to each their own.  

Yes I get that.  But when mets come in here and share their perspectives, I just shut up and listen 9usually) and am grateful.  Lurker can always just ask "I didn't get that.  What do you mean by..." instead of telling Tip how he should write, and share his met perspective.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Yes I get that.  But when mets come in here and share their perspectives, I just shut up and listen 9usually) and am grateful.  Lurker can always just ask "I didn't get that.  What do you mean by..." instead of telling Tip how he should write, and share his met perspective.

That's very true.  And I too appreciate it when the Pro's give their perspective..it's one of the big reasons why I am here, like a lot of people are.

 

Lurker takes a lot of heat(and sometimes/many times it's self inflicted), but he's trying to learn and fit in, and while I didn't like the words he used to say what he did, I was able to see where he was coming from in one way.  

 

Anyway, back on topic;  Too bad we are gonna miss out on this storm, was hoping we'd get a lil something :-(. 

[CoastalWx]

51 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Don Sutherland made a nice post in the NYC forum. Worth a read and stay the course.

I completely agree. That’s what most have been saying. I think I even said earlier that it was a decent pattern and bad luck will likely cause this to miss, but that’s how it goes. You also can have the opposite with good luck in bad patterns.

[NorEastermass128]

Odds that we hit 100 pages on this thread before BOS records another measurable (>0.1")?

I'd say high to very high.

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hard pressed to find a better area for synoptic snows around the globe at this latitude below 5000' in elevation.

Could care zero about synoptic snows just about what average climo is and limit non frozen qpf events in wintah. I need more elevation be it 500’ , 1k just not 200

maybe turn VT and W NH into a giant lake , that would increase our average snows in a lovely fashion

 

[cut]

24 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I agree with a lot of what you said above.  And I hate the emoji generation and the way a lot of young kids now a days cannot write complete sentences as well...it's becoming a lost art for sure.   And this is not a cut on Tip, But some of the wording is just very tough to get through at times.  I think the guy is incredibly intelligent...and really knows his Atmospheric science; but it's almost to the point that it takes too much time to figure out what he's really trying to say.   Will writes the same thing and you breeze right through it, and know exactly what he's talking about and you're good to go.    

 

I don't doubt at all that Tip is much more intelligent than I am...and more so than most folks for that matter.  And I appreciate a good vocabulary and good grammar as much as the next person.  I just find that some posts are a lil tough to get through/ figure out...when they don't necessarily have to be.   But, to each their own.  

Wasn't there a time when Tip wrote more straight ahead and to the point? I seem to remember him taking a turn to the more colorful that he employs now and noticing it. I am fine either way, I get a kick out of the word smithing actually - although I sometimes have to read it 2 or 3 times to translate into my pedestrian English!!!

[CoastalWx]

GEFS show you how nicely things can go.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Could care zero about synoptic snows just about what average climo is and limit non frozen qpf events in wintah. I need more elevation be it 500’ , 1k just not 200

 

[cut]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I completely agree. That’s what most have been saying. I think I even said earlier that it was a decent pattern and bad luck will likely cause this to miss, but that’s how it goes. You also can have the opposite with good luck in bad patterns.

Wasn't the blizzard of 2013 a case of good luck in a poor pattern? I seem to remember that but could be wrong.